The MLB starts the new week off with a light schedule as only eight games are on the board. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of value to be found in the baseball prop betting market.
We look at an under-the-radar pitcher’s duel in Texas that is giving us a higher than expected five-inning total while the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres begin another heated series with a more obvious matchup of stud starters.
We break down and pick these games and more with our best free MLB prop bets and predictions for Monday, June 21.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Athletics-Rangers Under 4.5 Five-Inning Total (-120)
Despite being American League West division rivals, the Texas Rangers and the Oakland Athletics face off for the first time this season when they begin a four-game set at Globe Life Field Monday.
This may be a worst-vs-first matchup as the first-place Athletics take on the basement-dwelling Rangers, but this game won’t be a cakewalk for the A’s as they’ll have to go up against the red-hot Kyle Gibson.
Yup, you read that right. The Rangers’ right-hander is having the best season of his career, pitching to a 2.09 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. Gibson has allowed more than two earned runs just once over his last 12 outings and is limiting opponents to a .195 batting average over that span. Now, Gibson faces an A’s lineup that ranks 22nd when it comes to average against right-handers.
The A’s counter with Frankie Montas, who has been solid after a rough April. The right-hander has a 3.27 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over his last nine starts and he faces a Rangers lineup that ranks 27th in scoring plating just 3.99 runs per game and 29th in OPS.
This game is a good bet to be low-scoring early.
J.A. Happ Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-150)
The Minnesota Twins have won four in a row and are trying to climb out of the massive hole they dug themselves early in the season. But if the Twins want to keep rolling they’ll need more consistent performances from their starting rotation — beginning tonight with J.A. Happ.
The lefty has had a tough first season in Minnesota, pitching to a 6.12 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over his 12 starts this season and things won’t get any easier Monday as they take on the hard-hitting Cincinnati Reds.
Led by their dynamic duo of Nick Castellanos and Jesse Winker, the Reds rank in the Top 10 in scoring, batting average, OPS, and home runs. Even though the Reds are in a bit of a slump, a date with Happ might be just what they need to get back on track.
Happ is pitching to a 9.84 ERA and is allowing opponents to hit .371 over his last seven starts and he has allowed four or more runs in six of those seven starts. Betting Happ to give up more than 2.5 seems like a safe bet.
Dodgers-Padres Under 3.5 Five-Inning Total (-105)
The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres begin another highly anticipated series this season as the National League West rivals do battle in the opener of a three-game set at Petco Park. Game 1 features an excellent pitching matchup as Julio Urias toes the rubber against Yu Darvish.
Urias looks like he has solidified his spot in the Dodgers rotation for years to come. The lefty is pitching to a 3.54 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. Now, he faces a Padres lineup that ranks 19th in batting average and 23rd in OPS when it comes to hitting off lefties.
On the other side is Darvish, who has been the Padres' best starter this season with his 2.57 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. While the Dodgers have a more potent lineup than the Padres, Darvish has done an excellent job of keeping them in check.
The right-hander has limited them to just two runs on five hits while striking out 18 over 14 innings in two starts against L.A. this season. This is a low number but these teams have already played a number of tightly contested games this season: tonight should be no different.
MLB betting card for June 21
- OAK-TEX Under 4.5 Five-Inning Total (-120)
- J.A. Happ Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-150)
- LAD-SD Under 3.5 Five-Inning Total (-105)
Picks made on 6/21/2021 at 12:25 p.m. ET
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