The Atlanta Braves took Game 1 of a four-game series between two National League heavyweights in high-flying fashion over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday, 8-7.
These teams currently have the best World Series odds, as Atlanta is between +240 and +290 at most books, with L.A. priced between +310 and +375.
Heading into Game 2 on Friday night, the Braves hold a five-game lead over the Dodgers for first place in the NL, with this series holding major ramifications on who finishes as the No. 1 seed.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs. Dodgers on Saturday, September 1.
Braves vs Dodgers odds
Braves vs Dodgers predictions
Ronald Acuña Jr. — the current favorite in the NL MVP odds — made history in Game 1 of the series with a grand slam, as he became the first player in MLB history to record at least 30 home runs and 60 stolen bases in a season.
He’s been a dominant force at the plate and on the bags all year, and there’s no reason not to continue riding the wave after his three-hit (and six-base) performance in Game 1.
Getting the start for the Boys in Blue will be lefty Julio Urías, predominantly a fastball pitcher who sprinkles in his slurve, changeup, and cutter.
This season, Urías is throwing his four-seam fastball 44.9% of the time, a pitch Acuña Jr. has absolutely no trouble with. He’s batting .319 with a .589 slugging percentage and +14 run value, plus a .343 xBA and a .623 xSLG.
Acuña Jr. has hit 16 of his 30 home runs off fastballs this season while adding 15 doubles and a triple — plenty of extra bases come his way when he sees it.
While he’s only seen two slurves this season, and too few throughout his career to provide much data, he’s been a savant against breaking balls in 2023.
Against 734 breaking balls this year, the four-time All-Star is batting .348 with a .622 slugging percentage, 10 home runs, 13 doubles, and a triple. Acuña Jr. is also hitting .267 (.310 xBA) with a .422 slugging percentage vs. the cutter, and .375 with a .563 slugging percentage vs. the changeup.
There shouldn’t be much worry about Urías being a lefty either, as the Braves outfielder is batting .314 with a .505 slugging percentage and 53 total bases in 105 at-bats against lefties this year.
The Dodgers stable of relief pitchers who could potentially enter the game will bring a sinker, slider, sweeper, and splitter.
Acuña Jr. has at least a .333 average and .521 slugging percentage against all four of those pitches this season with a combined +28 run value.
Obviously, the former NL Rookie of the Year has been dominant all season, but he’s been even better as of late with a .375 average, .656 slugging percentage, two home runs, nine RBI, and 21 total bases over his last seven games. Averaging three total bases per game over that stretch is bonkers.
My best bet: Ronald Acuña Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+120)
Braves vs Dodgers same-game parlay
Acuña Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Over 8.5
Braves TT Over 4.5
With the way Acuña Jr.’s bat has been sizzling all season, the Braves have been an unstoppable offensive force. Not only do they lead the league in team batting average (.276), but they’re also first in runs scored (778).
Guess who’s second in runs scored this season… the Dodgers with 754. That’s why it would be criminal to not tie the Over into this three-leg parlay.
Since the All-Star break, the Braves’ game total has been Over eight runs in 26 of their 44 games. As for the Dodgers, over that same period, their game total has topped eight runs in 29 of their 44 games.
With the pitching matchup the Braves have, they should be able to bring in at least five runs, a feat they’ve achieved in 30 of their last 44 contests.
They’ve hit the team total Over in 48 of their last 75 games (+16.94 Units / 19% ROI), too.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Braves vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
After taking Game 1 of the series as heavy road favorites of -139 to -168 at most books, the Braves opened at -114 to -155 in the MLB odds for Game 2.
The line has shifted slightly, but the majority of books still have the Braves at -119 to -133, which makes sense given they’ve hit the moneyline in 16 of their last 20 games (+8.70 Units / 22% ROI).
But it’s worth mentioning the Dodgers are still the second-best team in the NL and have hit the moneyline themselves in 40 of their last 56 games at home (+13.70 Units / 13% ROI).
The two best offenses in baseball didn’t disappoint in Game 1 with 15 combined runs, but that doesn’t seem to have influenced the total. It opened at 8.5 and remains there.
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Trend to know
The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 113 games (+21.55 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Dodgers
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Braves vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Friday, September 1, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southeast, SportsNet LA |
Starting pitchers
Max Fried (5-1, 2.85 ERA): Max Fried has followed up his All-Star season with another strong showing despite missing nearly three months with a forearm strain. Since he returned on Aug. 4, the 29-year-old lefty has pitched 27 2/3 innings with 28 strikeouts and 11 earned runs. Although he’s been giving up few earned runs, he’s been hittable in that span (32 hits)… something to watch out for against the Dodgers. Leaning on his four-seamer 33.5% of the time this season, he’s been up-and-down with it, giving up a .295 batting average. His curveball (21.6%) has been much more effective, with batters hitting just .125 against it.
Julio Urias (11-7, 4.41 ERA): The 27-year-old was phenomenal in 2022, winning the ERA title (2.16), but he has struggled to find his stuff in 2023. Across 112 1/3 innings this year, he’s given up 21 home runs, tied for 27th-most in the league. In his last appearance, the Boston Red Sox gave him all the trouble he could handle with three home runs and six earned runs in six innings of work. In his 20 starts this season, Urias has given up at least five earned runs six times.
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