The third and final game of this series gets underway Sunday, with the NL Central’s Chicago Cubs hosting the NL East’s Atlanta Braves.
These clubs split the first two meetings of this series, with Atlanta winning the first game 8-0 and Chicago securing an 8-6 victory on Saturday.
Will the Braves end the series on a high note, or can the Cubs defend their home diamond? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs. Cubs on Sunday, August 6.
Braves vs Cubs odds
Braves vs Cubs predictions
Right-hander Charlie Morton is slated to take the mound for the Atlanta Braves on Sunday, and he is a good candidate to fade. Through 21 starts this season, the veteran pitcher is 10-9 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.
Those are certainly not the worst surface-level stats, but his underlying metrics suggest regression is looming. Currently, the right-hander ranks in the 34th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG.
Specifically, we’re going to fade Morton in the strikeout department. Entering Sunday, he ranks in the 61st percentile in K% and 64th in chase rate.
Those two rankings are not poor, but they aren’t elite either. Currently, you can find Morton’s strikeout prop at 5.5. He has recorded five or fewer strikeouts in four of his past six starts.
While the Chicago Cubs are a very average team at the plate, there’s reason to believe they can avoid the punch out against Morton. This Chicago lineup is in great form, scoring an average of nine runs over its past six games. The Cubs are a middle-of-the-road team in terms of strikeout frequency, ranking 13th in K% on the season. Over the last month, however, they're 19th at 21.7% (21.2% vs. righties).
If Morton is chased early — which has been a fairly frequent occurrence in 2023 with him completing six innings in just nine of his 21 outings — then his strikeout prop is even more likely to go Under.
My best bet: Charlie Morton Under 5.5 strikeouts (+115)
Braves vs Cubs same-game parlay
Charlie Morton Under 5.5 strikeouts (+112)
Over 8.5 (-110)
Cubs moneyline (+102)
We already covered the first leg in the best bet section above, now let’s look at the other two.
While Morton is primed for regression, the Braves boast one of the best lineups in baseball. Entering this matchup, Atlanta ranks either first or second in runs scored per game, hits per game, batting average, slugging, OPS, and home runs.
Meanwhile, Chicago’s offensive resurgence over the second half of the season now lands the team in the Top 10 in each of those categories, with the lone exception being home runs. The Braves are going to score their runs no matter what, but with left-hander Justin Steele taking the mound for Chicago, the damage is in a position to be limited as the Cubs preserve a victory.
Through 20 starts, Steele is 12-3 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. His underlying metrics are also excellent, ranking in the 80th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, xERA/xwOBA, and barrel rate.
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Braves vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Atlanta opened as a -125 favorite and was quickly bet down to the current price of -120. This line movement makes sense considering Morton is a regression candidate while Steele has established himself as a true ace this season.
That brings us to the total, which opened at 9.5 and has since moved down to 8.5. Although I am on the Over, this line movement should not be all that shocking either, given that Morton's surface-level stats give an illusion of a stronger pitcher while Steele has been terrific all year.
With that said, both lineups are explosive at the dish and can score in bunches even against elite hurlers.
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Trend to know
Morton has recorded five or fewer strikeouts in four of his past six starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Cubs
Braves vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Sunday, August 6, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSE, MARQ |
Starting pitchers
Charlie Morton (10-9, 3.62 ERA): While Morton has put together a solid campaign, his expected regression has started to come to fruition recently, going 0-3 with a 6.46 ERA and 2.12 WHIP over his past three starts.
Justin Steele (12-3, 2.65 ERA): It has been a breakthrough campaign for the third-year pitcher, who achieved his first All-Star nod this season. His underlying metrics suggest that these results are not fluky. With that said, he will have his hands full with this powerhouse Atlanta lineup.
