Blue Jays vs Yankees Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Cole Helps Propel Low-Scoring Grind

The Yankees offense has been sputtering, and they may get tangled in a pitcher's duel as they face the Blue Jays again Thursday. See why our MLB picks think both sides may find scoring difficult.

Last Updated: Sep 21, 2023 11:15 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Gerrit Cole MLB
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The Toronto Blue Jays can claim their second straight series sweep when they wrap up a three-game set against the New York Yankees tonight at Yankee Stadium.

Pitching has been the name of the game for Toronto with the Jays giving up just two runs in this series and a total of seven runs over their last five games. Jose Berrios is coming off a seven-inning shutout performance, but he’ll have to duel with Yankees ace Gerrit Cole — a heavy AL Cy Young odds favorite — as an MLB odds underdog.

Can Toronto get to Cole and pull off the sweep? We’ll discuss in our Blue Jays vs. Yankees MLB picks and predictions for Thursday, September 21.

Blue Jays vs Yankees odds

Blue Jays vs Yankees predictions

Wednesday’s matchup was virtually a mirror image of the series opener, as the Blue Jays cruised to a 6-1 win, though five of their runs came in the final two innings. Kevin Gausman pitched six shutout innings while call-up Spencer Horwitz (3 RBI) and Bo Bichette (2 RBI) led the offense.

Toronto has benefited from excellent starting pitching in this series and will likely need a similar performance tonight to keep pace with Gerrit Cole. Jose Berrios had a rough month of August, allowing three-plus earned runs in four of five starts while posting a 5.53 ERA, but has rebounded nicely in September. 

The right-hander threw one of his best performances of the season in his last start against the Red Sox on September 15, holding them to five hits and no runs over seven innings, and has allowed just four runs total over his last three games.

Meanwhile, Cole has been on a hot streak of his own, going 3-0 through his last five outings while holding opponents to two earned runs or fewer in each of those games and posting a minuscule 1.71 ERA over that span.

With two solid starters on the mound and the Yankees offense scoring just four total runs over their last three contests, I’m taking the Under as my best bet tonight.

My best bet: Under 7 (-107 at SIA)

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Blue Jays vs Yankees same-game parlay

Under 7.5 (-140)
Yankees Under 4.5 (-200)
Bichette 1+ RBI (+195)

Along with taking the Under on 7.5 runs, we’ll also look for the Yankees to have another relatively quiet night at the plate as part of tonight’s same-game parlay. New York has averaged just over six hits per game across its last three contests so it’s not like the Yankees have really been knocking on the door. They’ve scored 69 runs in 18 games this month, ranking fourth-worst in the majors over that span. Even if Berrios just has a decent night, he should be able to hold the Yankees to two or three runs at most.

We’ll wrap up the parlay by banking on Bichette to pick up another RBI. The Blue Jays shortstop started September pretty cold, with just four hits and two RBI across his first seven games, though he’s picked it up of late. Bichette has driven in two runs in back-to-back games and has posted five RBI over his last four contests.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Blue Jays vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The oddsmakers are giving Cole a lot of sway in this one, as the Yankees opened as home favorites for the first time in the series, coming in at -133 on the moneyline. Cole may be pitching at a Cy Young level but he can’t get his team to score more runs, so I’m going to take the Blue Jays to complete the sweep.

Toronto has been playing a solid all-around game since dropping four straight to Texas last week, outscoring opponents 23-7 over the last five contests. A big part of the Jays’ success has been starting pitching, and there’s no reason why Berrios, who’s carrying a 1.80 ERA across three starts this month, can’t pitch another gem against a stagnant Yankees offense. 

Tonight’s total opened at 7.5 runs and, as discussed, I am definitely siding with the Under as this matchup is shaping up as a potential pitcher’s duel. 

Cole is always competitive, and you know he’ll come out with his best stuff to try and avoid the sweep, but New York’s offense has been so bad that it’s hard to imagine the Yankees running away with it. The clubs have also tended to play lower-scoring games against each other this season with the Under going 3-0-1 over the last four meetings and 6-2-1 over the last nine.

Trend to know

The Under is 4-0-1 in Toronto’s last five games. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Yankees

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Blue Jays vs Yankees game info

Location: Yankee Stadium, The Bronx, NY
Date: Thursday, September 21, 2023
First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
TV: Rogers Sportsnet, YES

Starting pitchers

Jose Berrios (11-10, 3.49 ERA): Outside of a rough run in August, Berrios has been pretty consistent for Toronto down the stretch, holding the opposition to two earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 13 starts. The right-hander has faced New York just once this season back in May, surrendering six hits and three earned runs over 6.2 innings in a loss.

Gerrit Cole (13-4, 2.81 ERA): Cole didn’t have his A-game in his last start against the Pirates on September 15, getting pulled after giving up six hits and two earned runs over five innings. The Yankees ace has been a model of consistency, though, allowing more than two runs only twice over his last 12 starts.

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