The Toronto Blue Jays will open up a three-game set with the Baltimore Orioles tonight at Camden Yards, with Chris Bassitt sitting as a -125 road favorite and a total of 8.5 leaning to the Over. It’s a massive series for the visitors, who trail the 41-24 Orioles by 10 games for the second spot in the AL East.
With Bassitt giving up hits at one of the lowest rates in all of baseball, bettors shopping around can find some big plus money fading a Baltimore hitter who also carries the biggest pinch-hit risk on his team.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Orioles on Tuesday, June 13.
Blue Jays vs Orioles odds
Blue Jays vs Orioles predictions
Batters have struggled to hit Chris Bassitt this year, as the right-hander has allowed just 58 hits over 82 innings of work. That’s the sixth-best H/9 in baseball, and better than Spencer Strider and Shane McClanahan, two of the frontrunners in the Cy Young odds. Bassitt does have a .213 BABIP that will be tough to continue, but for tonight, I’m willing to bet on that staggering number in a hitter’s park like Camden Yards.
Ryan O’Hearn is not an everyday player for the Orioles, but is coming off a three-hit game on Sunday and is slashing .328/.380/.609. Considering his career slash-line is .226/.299/.403, his current production is soon going to fall off a cliff. His .386 BABIP is not sustainable — much more so than Bassitt’s BABIP.
O’Hearn doesn’t hit left-handed pitching, so there is also a pinch-hit risk for the left-handed hitter. THE BAT is projecting him for a 24% pinch-hit risk, which is the highest of all Baltimore hitters. Bassitt does struggle against left-handed hitters, but with a probability of two or three at-bats and paying a +165 to go hitless, O’Hearn Under 0.5 hits is showing very good value at those odds.
If O’Hearn doesn’t start, his bet at SIA will be voided, as their house rules state that a player must start and get at least one at-bat to have action for offensive markets.
THE BAT is projecting 3.76 plate appearances, and 0.89 hits which is the sixth-lowest hit projection on the team. The +165 odds are implying roughly over 1.00 hits.
My best bet: O’Hearn Under 0.5 hits (+165 at SIA)
Blue Jays vs Orioles same-game parlay
O'Hearn Under 0.5 hits
Lukes Under 0.5 hits
Kremer Under 17.5 outs
O'Hearn has the highest pinch-hit risk of all Baltimore batters and is currently hitting at an unsustainable rate. For all of the reasons mentioned above, he anchors this SGP play.
Nathan Lukes of the Blue Jays also has a massive pinch-hit risk (67% per THE BAT), but also doesn't do much at the dish when he does get swings. He has just three hits over 22 plate appearances this year and has been subbed out in three of his last four starts, as he doesn't face left-handed pitching.
Dean Kremer is the final piece here. I'm getting a good multiplier because the Under 0.5 hits with Lukes doesn't correlate with the Under 17.5 outs. But it's a bottom-of-the-order hitter in Lukes, so I'm happy with that. Toronto has been a better offense on the road and can chase pitchers early. Baltimore also has a fresh bullpen to go to, which helps as well.
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Blue Jays vs Orioles moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Orioles opened as +125 home dogs but saw a lot of money as bettors drove that to +105 as of this afternoon.
Toronto’s Brandon Belt is questionable with a hamstring injury, but the Orioles could be without Ryan Mountcastle, who is dealing with an illness and has missed three straight games.
Baltimore has taken all three matchups this season with a three-game sweep at Rogers Center in May. Baltimore outscored Toronto 20-10 in those three games, and the Jays had Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah, and Jose Berrios start.
Kremer allowed just one run in one of those games, but worked around some issues with nine hits allowed over 16 total outs. Kremer and the Orioles closed as +175 road dogs vs. Gausman back in May.
There is a decent jump in price from Gausman to Bassitt while also including the 20 to 25 points for home field. Let’s say 20-30 points between Bassitt and Gausman and 40 to 50 points for home field, that would put tonight’s matchup at around Baltimore -105 to +115, which is right in the middle of the current +105 price on Baltimore.
Both teams have their bullpens ready after a day off yesterday, and that might be better news for the Orioles, whose relievers lead all of baseball in WAR per Fangraphs.
Toronto has been a much better Over team on the road with a 20-14-1 O/U record on the season, compared to a 63.3% Under rate at home. Camden Yards is playing slightly in favor of the hitters tonight with 8 mph winds blowing out to left field. However, this is still a pitcher’s park thanks to the park adjustments made last year (priced in).
Total bettors seem to be all over the map here as this total opened at 8.5, has hit 9 at many places but has also been hit back to 8.5. Because of this, bettors who can shop around and can find the better number (the Under 9 or the Over 8.5). I’m leaning on the Under 9 here tonight after both bullpens got a reset, but I’d likely need Under 9 at -110 or better to make a play. THE BAT is projecting Over 6.3 combined runs from the starters.
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Trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in the Orioles’ last four during Game 1 of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs Orioles
Blue Jays vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oracle Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Tuesday, June 13, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, MASN2 |
Starting pitchers
Chris Bassitt (7-4, 3.29 ERA): Despite a high FIP (4.67) and low BABIP (.213), Bassitt continues to be an ace for the Jays and has recorded nine quality starts over 13 turns this season. He had a rough two-game stretch but since then, he’s allowed two runs and eight hits over his last 15.2 innings (two starts). The Jays are 8-5 SU when he starts and THE BAT projects 94 pitches, 16.7 outs, 4.42 strikeouts, and 3.09 earned runs.
Dean Kremer (6-3, 4.89 ERA): Kremer will be pitching on six days of rest with Baltimore off yesterday. He carried a 2.55 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over his previous six starts into his last match before giving up a season-high six runs over five innings to the Brewers. Kremer is a flyball pitcher who can get in trouble with the long ball, as he’s surrendered 12 home runs over 70 innings of work. Baltimore is 8-5 SU in Kremer’s 13 starts, and THE BAT is projecting 90 pitches, 16.1 outs, 3.72 strikeouts, and 3.29 earned runs.
