The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres now stand in a tie for first place in the National League West after Friday’s narrow 2-1 win by the home team, and now San Diego can regain its place atop the division with another win here on Saturday.
With a heavy liability on the mound, we’ll explain in our Dodgers vs. Padres predictions why the road team may answer back with the bats here and force a rubber match on Sunday.
Let’s hand out some MLB picks for Saturday, August 23.
Dodgers vs Padres prediction
Dodgers vs Padres best bet: Los Angeles Dodgers first five innings -0.5 (-115)
Tyler Glasnow remains something of a mystery through 12 starts this season. He’s walked an alarming 11.9% of the batters he’s faced, which has caused his Expected ERA to rise to 327, but he’s otherwise been nearly as good as he’s been for the last two seasons.
While Glasnow’s Expected Slugging is up 21 points, it’s still comfortably below the league average and underneath the .392 mark he posted in 2023. Similarly, his 30.6% strikeout rate is still very good, but it’s just not what it used to be, coming in more than two points lower than his number in the last two seasons.
Still, this is ultimately a similar version of Glasnow, which is to say a strikeout-forward player who’s even more vulnerable to the home run on account of his elevated 26.1% fly-ball rate, which is far higher than the last two years. He’s primarily allowed ground-balls, however, and that could help him just a bit against a San Diego Padres team that is squarely focused on contact.
On the opposite end, Nestor Cortes will be making yet another start inside his new, generous park — but even Petco Park wasn’t able to help him in his most recent outing against the San Francisco Giants. He surrendered three home runs — something we generally see from Cortes with all the fly balls he allows, yet it is quite uncommon in San Diego.
That’s a glaring issue for Cortes, which hasn’t been present for the majority of his career, and one which could grow more troublesome with the Dodgers and their excellent plate discipline on the schedule.
Standing in with a terrible .509 xSLG, you’re going to want Cortes to keep runners off base when he can help it and miss bats, and that’s not very likely in this game.
While San Diego has a knack for getting the ball in play, it was totally stymied by Glasnow last time out, striking out eight times over five frames and landing just one blow on a solo homer and another on a double.
Other than that, this team looked perplexed, and that — and the park upgrade — are enough for me to side with L.A. here.
Dodgers vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
We’ll start our same-game parlay by juicing up the odds with a Nestor Cortes strikeout prop. Yes, he’s not a big strikeout arm, but his whiff rate has at least been a modest 26.8% this season to put him into the top half of the league, and he’s also struck out 11 batters over his last two starts despite allowing a ton of runners and working just 10 2/3 innings.
Cortes punched out five Dodgers last time out, and that’s become something of a trend for this team, with four of the previous six starters they’ve faced hitting this number.
I’m also going to back Teoscar Hernandez here despite his ongoing slump. His xBA against Cortes stands at .417 in 18 plate appearances, and he’s notched six hits, including two doubles and a homer, in those meetings. He’s also continued to crush lefties this season, hitting .317 in the split, and his most significant issues have come in making contact this month.
Dodgers vs Padres odds
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -135 | San Diego +115
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+125) | San Diego +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)
Dodgers vs Padres trend
The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres.
How to watch Dodgers vs Padres and game info
| Location | PETCOR Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Saturday, August 23, 2025 |
| First pitch | 8:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Tyler Glasnow (1-1, 3.12 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Nestor Cortes (1-2, 5.87 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Padres latest injuries
Dodgers vs Padres weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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