The frustration of inconsistent play reached a fever pitch for the Toronto Blue Jays. In a season already full of maddening results, Sunday’s loss to the Texas Rangers may have been the worst.
Toronto led yesterday’s rubber match 6-0, but thanks to a host of mistakes and careless play, Texas fought back, eventually earning an 11-7 victory. It was the Jays' sixth loss in their last nine games.
The Blue Jays will do their best to put a tough series behind them when they open the week in Miami to take on the upstart Marlins, who sit in second place in the National League East.
Can a resurgent Jose Berrios get Toronto back on track as road favorites? I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet in MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Marlins.
Blue Jays vs Marlins odds
Blue Jays vs Marlins predictions
Despite the rain cloud hanging over this Toronto Blue Jays season, one of the bright spots has undoubtedly been the turnaround of starting pitcher Jose Berrios.
The Blue Jays right-hander was coming off the worst season of his career, recording as 5.11 expected ERA while surrendering a .275 expected batting average, and a .466 expected slugging percentage. All of those numbers ranked in the Bottom 10% in MLB while also having the lowest strikeout rate since his rookie season.
After a slow start to 2023, many were wondering if we were in for more of the same. But Berrios has certainly changed that narrative. The right-hander has been controlling his sinker much better, allowing him to set hitters up with a solid slurve. As a result, he has a 2.27 ERA and is limiting opponents to a .217 batting average over his last 12 starts.
His latest was arguably the most impressive, shutting out a strong Baltimore Orioles lineup on just three hits over 7 2/3 innings. He is also giving the Jays great length, averaging more than six innings per start.
Now, his strikeout numbers are probably not where he would like at just 7.9 per nine innings, but that length means there is still some value in what is a low strikeout total of 4.5 against the Marlins.
Berrios is striking out 21.7% of batters and is facing nearly 25 batters per start, working out to roughly 5.5 strikeouts per start. The Marlins are a solid team when it comes to keeping the strikeouts down with the 11th-lowest K-rate when facing right-handed batters (22.4%).
And despite their success this season, the Fish rank 23rd in OPS and 22nd in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching this season.
That means another lengthy start for Berrios should be in the cards. I like him to work deep into another ball game and rack up at least five strikeouts, something he's accomplished in nine of his 14 outings.
My best bet: Jose Berrios Over 4.5 strikeouts (-120 at SIA)
Blue Jays vs Marlins same-game parlay
Jose Berrios Over 4.5 Ks
Berrios Over 17.5 outs
Whit Merrifield Over 0.5 SB
We start this same-game parlay with Berrios to go Over his strikeout number. And part of the reason I like the Over on his strikeout total is that I also like him to pitch deep into this ball game, so adding the Over on his outs recorded prop at 17.5 seems like a no-brainer.
Berrios has been a very reliable innings eater for the Blue Jays since the end of April, completing at least 5 1/3 innings in 11 consecutive starts and is averaging a touch over 6 1/3 innings pitched over that span. He has completed at least six innings in eight of those starts, which means he has gone Over 17.5 outs eight times.
As stated above, while the Marlins are generally playing good baseball, they are still a below-average offense when facing right-handed pitching this season. I have Berrios logging six innings tonight.
Let’s get spicy with the last leg of this SGP. The Marlins allow the sixth-most stolen bases per game this season. Whit Merrifield is the Blue Jays’ top stolen base threat, swiping 18 bags on 23 attempts. He also has a .364 on-base percentage this season. With it being a bullpen day for Miami, whose relievers rank 19th in WHIP and 23rd in opponent batting average, Merrifield should have a good chance to get on base tonight.
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Blue Jays vs Marlins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Blue Jays opened this matchup as about -150 road favorites and have seen a slight bump to -155 as of Monday afternoon.
Toronto has the edge in starters with Berrios going against Bryan Hoeing, who will serve as an opener for Miami. The 26-year-old right-hander typically pitches to contact using a sinker-slider combo and owns a 4.14 xERA this season. Pitching to contact means he’s giving up his fair share of hits and allowing opponents to hit for a .256 xBA.
While the Blue Jays have had issues with driving in runs (they rank 25th in batting average with runners in scoring position), the team still ranks fourth in batting average, ninth in OPS, and sixth in wRC+. Giving them ample opportunities to make contact could even out those poor scoring numbers. Don’t be surprised if the Jays stake Berrios to an early lead. Also, I don’t hate Toronto on the five-inning run line in a game they should be motivated to win after a poor trip to Texas.
When it comes to the total, it has held steady at the opening number of 8.5. I would give a slight lean to the Under here considering Toronto's woes to cash in on scoring opportunities and a tough matchup for an average-at-best (not including Luis Arraez and Jorge Soler) Marlins lineup.
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Trend to know
The Blue Jays are 22-8 in their last 30 games vs. National League East opponents. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Marlins
Blue Jays vs Marlins game info
| Location: | loanDepot Park, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Monday, June 19, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, Bally Sports Florida |
Starting pitchers
Jose Berrios (7-4, 3.28 ERA): With the demotion of Alek Manoah the Blue Jays really needed this Jose Berrios to show up this season. He hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last eight starts and has allowed two or fewer in seven of them.
Bryan Hoeing (1-1, 3.12 ERA): Hoeing is a towering right-hander standing at 6-foot-6 and will serve as an opener. He's the Marlins' long reliever and hasn't completed three innings since May 3.
