Despite the fact the Toronto Blue Jays have earned a split in the first two games of this four-game set with the Cleveland Guardians, they have been dominated by a pair of rookie right-handers.
Tonight, left-hander Logan Allen will attempt to keep that trend going when the Guardians hand the ball to a rookie for the third straight game. However, it won’t be easy for Cleveland as Allen gets matched up against Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman.
After seeing just five total runs scored in the first two games of this series, is there any chance Game 3 finally sees an explosion of scoring? Or are we looking at another Under?
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet in my free MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Guardians on August 9.
Blue Jays vs Guardians odds
Blue Jays vs Guardians predictions
Gavin Williams opened this series for the Cleveland Guardians on Monday by throwing seven shutout innings with just one hit and 12 strikeouts. Tanner Bibee followed that spectacular performance up with seven shutout innings of his own, allowing six hits with six strikeouts.
Both Williams and Bibee are right-handers and the funny thing is, the Toronto Blue Jays actually have better numbers against righties than they do against lefties. So, enter left-hander Logan Allen.
The 24-year-old Allen has been incredibly reliable in his rookie season. The left-hander was pitching to a 3.21 ERA and a 3.48 FIP over his first 13 starts. And while he’s hit a bit of a rookie wall of late, he’ll have a chance to bounce back against a Jays team that continues to struggle to drive in runs.
Despite solid advanced numbers, Toronto just can’t seem to come up with that clutch hit. In fact, the team ranks 28th in OPS with runners in scoring position. Even following a 13-run outburst against the Boston Red Sox last Sunday, the Blue Jays are still scoring just 4.1 runs per game over their last nine games.
The Jays counter Allen with ace Kevin Gausman. The veteran right-hander is having another fantastic season, pitching to a 3.70 expected ERA and limiting opponents to a .233 expected batting average. Gausman also ranks in the 95th percentile in strikeout rate, so he’ll be a handful for a light-hitting Cleveland team.
Despite evening this series last night, the Guardians have plated just two runs in the last 18 innings. Overall, Cleveland ranks 21st in OPS and 19th in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitchers this season.
With that in mind, we’re going to keep riding this Under trend and bet that pitching will be the story once again in this series.
My best bet: Under 8 (-104 at SIA)
Blue Jays vs Guardians same-game parlay
Under 8.5
Gausman to record 6+ strikeouts
Gausman to allow 6+ hits
The theme of today’s same-game parlay will be Kevin Gausman. As always, we start with our best bet...but let’s bump it up to 8.5 for a little more breathing room.
Next, let’s add Gausman to record 6+ strikeouts. Even though the Guardians have a low K-rate, no one in the American League has more strikeouts this season than Gausman. And since Cleveland has little to no pop in its lineup, chances are good that Gausman remain in the game long enough to hit this number.
At the same time, the Guardians rank fourth in the big leagues when it comes to batting average vs. right-handed pitching. If Gausman pitches into the sixth inning, there’s a good chance he gives up six or more hits solely based on the duration of time he's kept out there.
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Blue Jays vs Guardians moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Blue Jays opened this AL matchup as roughly -150 road favorites and they have seen the early money, sitting in the -170 range a few hours before first pitch. It makes sense considering the Jays have a big edge in starting pitching and have also seen an uptick in their production vs. left-handed pitching (now rank seventh in wRC+).
Now, I don’t love the Blue Jays at this price considering their struggles with runners in scoring position, but I don’t hate taking a shot on them on the run line at even money or better.
When it comes to the total for this matchup, it opened at a low 7.5 and has been bet up to an even 8. I’m clearly on the Under in this matchup, and that is buoyed by the fact that this matchup also involves two solid bullpens. Toronto relievers rank sixth in xFIP while Cleveland ranks 16th, so don’t expect an uptick in late-game scoring.
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Trend to know
The Blue Jays have hit the Under in 11 of their last 12 games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Guardians
Blue Jays vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Wednesday, August 9, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, Bally Sports Great Lakes |
Starting pitchers
Kevin Gausman (8-6, 3.20 ERA): Gausman has been one of the best pitchers in the American League all season long. He leads the AL in both strikeouts and FIP, and 13 of his 22 starts have lasted at least six innings with two earned runs allowed or fewer.
Logan Allen (5-4, 3.65 ERA): Allen was having a solid rookie campaign but he has regressed a bit over the last three starts. He’s allowed 12 runs (11 earned) on 19 hits over 19 innings of work, and those starts have come against weak offensive teams in the Royals and White Sox.
