The Toronto Blue Jays and Cleveland Guardians will wrap up their low-scoring series this afternoon at Progressive Field with Alek Manoah and the visitors sitting as -135 favorites in the MLB odds with a lofty total of 9.5 vs. Noah Syndergaard. Toronto has taken two of three, but the entire series has seen just six runs.
With an afternoon getaway game on deck and a struggling weak Cleveland lineup, is it safe for bettors to back Manoah and his Over 15.5 outs today at a reasonable -110?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Guardians for Thursday, August 10.
Blue Jays vs Guardians odds
Blue Jays vs Guardians predictions
Alek Manoah needed just 89 pitches to record 20 outs in his last outing and could hit the 95-pitch mark for the first time since his return. That’s good news for his Over 15.5 outs market, especially against this weak Cleveland offense.
The Guardians have managed just two runs over 21 innings in the series on just 14 hits. It’s a bottom-tier lineup right now that is missing Josh Bell (traded) and Josh Naylor (injured). There’s also not a 0% chance that Jose Ramirez misses this game. He is currently appealing his suspension but could drop the appeal or get a hearing sometime today.
The wind is blowing in at Progressive Field and Manoah seems to have a lot more break on his slider. He only walked two of 27 batters in his last outing and likely has a leash of three times through the order again tonight.
There is always some concern with Manoah as his season has been a rollercoaster, but bettors are getting a great number (15.5). Additionally, the matchup is great, the environment is not hot with winds blowing in, it’s a getaway game, and there’s a pitcher’s umpire behind the plate. If Manoah is set to see 27 batters, he could be sitting sub-80 pitches entering the sixth inning and would need just one out.
My best bet: Alek Manoah Over 15.5 outs (+115)
Blue Jays vs Guardians same-game parlay
Merrifield Over 0.5 stolen bases
Schneider Over 0.5 stolen bases
Merrifield Over 0.5 stolen bases
Guerrero Over 0.5 stolen bases
Schneider Over 0.5 stolen bases
Guerrero Over 0.5 stolen bases
bet365 has taken away pitcher outs with its SGPs but that's fine and dandy this afternoon, because Noah Syndergaard is the best stolen base matchup in baseball.
I'm taking three Blue Jays players (Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Whit Merrifield, and Davis Schneider) to steal a bag but doing it in a round-robin, meaning I'm making three separate 2-leg SGPs which look like this: Merrifield + Schneider (+2,000), Merrifield + Guerrero (+2,500), and Guerrero + Schneider (+7,500). I'm betting 0.20 units on each bet for a total of 0.6 units.
The Cleveland starter has allowed seven stolen bases over his two starts as a Guardian, and runners are 26-for-27 vs. him on the bases this year. Toronto has struggled to score runs of late, so taking bases might be in the cards this afternoon. All three props are showing great +EV, per THE BAT X projections.
As long as two of the three players steal a bag, round-robin bettors will cash. If all three manage to swipe a base, the payday will be even bigger.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Blue Jays vs Guardians moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Toronto opened as a -130 favorite and has gotten a little shorter, moving to -135 and even -140 at some books. The Jays have won six of their last eight games and two of three vs. Cleveland, but with the state of their offense and the possible range of outcomes from Manoah, it’s tough to trust the favorites this afternoon.
It is a solid spot for Manoah and he was very efficient in his last start, needing fewer than 90 pitches to go 20 outs in a 7-3 win at Fenway. Today’s setting will help the pitcher, as Progressive Field has mid-70s temps and 10-mph winds blowing in.
He had better stuff in his last start and finished with a 13% swinging-strike rate. His max velocity is still not where it once was, but his average velo is looking better and his slider had its best movement of the year. It’s also an easy matchup for the right-hander.
Cleveland has no Bell or Naylor, and Ramirez could drop his appeal or get suspended at any time. It’s one of the weakest offenses in baseball right now and sits in the Bottom 7 in most offensive categories over the last 30 days. Yesterday’s lineup sported seven batters with an OPS south of .700, and the Guardians have managed just two runs over three games vs. the Jays with just 14 hits.
Syndergaard has had a mixed bag of results since joining the Guardians, as he held the Astros to one run over five-plus innings but gave up five runs to the White Sox over six frames in his most recent outing. He gave up four long balls in that last game as well as four stolen bases.
Toronto has the pitching edge today, but both offenses have been hard to trust. Toronto is 9-1 to the Under in its last 10 games, while Cleveland is 2-8 O/U. The Jays are still without Bo Bichette and Kevin Kiermaier, and have been lucky that Schneider is hitting .474.
Today’s total sits at a hefty 9.5 compared to a closing total of 8 in all three of the previous games of the series. It’s a getaway game with some likely weaker lineups and a pitcher-friendly umpire in Jeremie Rehak. The total is inflated thanks to the starting pitching issues, but if either one of Manoah or Syndergaard is on, this could be a sweat-free Under with the current state of both offenses.
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Trend to know
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 110 games (+8.93 Units / 7% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Guardians
Blue Jays vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Thursday, August 10, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, BSGL |
Starting pitchers
Alek Manoah (3-8, 5.72 ERA): Manoah will be making his 19th start of the season and sixth since his demotion. He has a 4.26 ERA (5.48 FIP) over his last five turns and needed just 89 pitches for 20 outs in his last outing. His max velocity is not where it was, but the average and minimums are better than before getting sent down. The Jays are 8-10 SU when he starts, and THE BAT projects 94 pitches, 16.5 outs, 4.00 strikeouts, and 3.02 earned runs.
Noah Syndergaard (1-5, 6.75 ERA): Syndergaard is making his 15th start and third as a Guardian. He threw 83 pitches in his last outing and owns a 41:11 K:BB rate over 66-plus innings with 16 home runs and a whopping 27 stolen bases allowed. THE BAT is projecting 93 pitches, 16.7 outs, 4.38 strikeouts, and 3.17 earned runs.
