That’s how you win a series!
The Toronto Blue Jays scored two touchdowns in a 14-0 beatdown of the San Diego Padres last night, and now they’ll bring out the brooms as they go for the sweep.
To do that, Toronto will need the bats to keep humming and starter Bowden Francis to bounce back. My Blue Jays predictions break it all down and bring you my best MLB picks and a same-game parlay for this interleague matchup.
Blue Jays predictions for May 22
- Best bet
Kolek u15.5 uts
(-115 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Kolek u15.5 outs
Guerrero Jr. o1.5 TB
Varsho o0.5 RBI
(+480 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: Jays' bats bully Kolek
Stephen Kolek Under 15.5 Outs (-115 at BetVictor)
The Toronto Blue Jays' bats came alive in last night’s 14-0 win over the San Diego Padres, and now, they’ll go for the three-game sweep this afternoon.
If it wants to bring out the brooms, Toronto's offense must keep humming, as Bowden Francis will take the mound.
The righty is pitching to an ugly 6.03 expected ERA and surrendering a .306 expected batting average to opponents. The Jays’ lineup will have to pick up the slack, and luckily, a matchup against Padres starter Stephen Kolek will help.
The 28-year-old RHP started the season at Triple-A El Paso and was called up at the beginning of May. The immediate results were great: Kolek didn’t allow a run over his first two starts, which included a complete-game shutout of the Colorado Rockies.
But that was the Colorado Rockies. The other being the Pittsburgh Pirates — two of the worst offenses in baseball. Last time out, he returned to Earth, giving up five runs on eight hits over five innings against the Seattle Mariners.
His xERA is 3.23, and his xBA is .248. He also doesn’t have great swing-and-miss stuff and is getting hit hard as a result. Kolek ranks in the 13th percentile or worse in average exit velocity, chase rate, whiff rate, and hard-hit percentage.
In the starts against the Pirates and Mariners, he threw 84 and 83 pitches. The complete-game shutout is a bit of an anomaly. He threw just 104 pitches and likely won’t have a 19-run lead through five innings to help him relax.
Now, he faces a Blue Jays' lineup that ranks sixth in OPS and fifth in wRC+ in May. The Jays also don’t strike out a ton and could quickly build up Kolek’s pitch count.
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Stephen Kolek Under 15.5 outs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 RBI
We suffered a bit of a bad beat last night with the Blue Jays scoring 14 runs, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. getting just one total base. As long as Vladdy keeps having good at bats, I’ll happily back his total bases at these solid numbers.
The Jays' franchise first baseman is hitting .318 with a .917 OPS over 18 games this month and ranks in the 96th percentile in xBA, and the 85th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and bat speed.
It’s crazy how the Blue Jays' lineup has transformed since Daulton Varsho's return. While the centerfielder doesn’t hit for a high average, almost all hits feel impactful.
Varsho went deep again last night, driving in four more runs. He has seven home runs, 17 RBI, and a .863 OPS over his first 16 games this season.
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Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Thursday, May 22, 2025 |
| First pitch | 1:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Stephen Kolek (2-1, 2.33 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Bowden Francis (2-6, 5.63 ERA) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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