George Springer has been a big part of the Toronto Blue Jays’ offense all season long, and I expect him to continue coming up big for the birds as they aim to even up this series against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park in Game 4 of the ALCS.
Find out why with my free Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks for this Thursday, October 16 matchup.
Blue Jays predictions for ALCS Game 4
| Pick |  |
|---|---|
| George Springer Over 1.5 total bases | +125 |
| • George Springer Over 1.5 total bases • George Springer Over 0.5 runs • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases |
+500 |
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Blue Jays ALCS Game 4 best bet: A Springer in his step
George Springer Over 1.5 total bases (+125 at BET99)
The Toronto Blue Jays are hoping the bats stay hot tonight after blasting five home runs on 18 hits, culminating in 13 runs in Wednesday's blowout win over the Seattle Mariners.
George Springer accounted for three of those hits, including a long bomb deep to center field. He finished with six total bases to cruise past his bases prop for a fourth straight game.
The Jays slugger is averaging 3.5 bases per game over that stretch and has a .635 slugging percentage through the playoffs, recording an extra-base hit in five of his seven postseason outings.
The Mariners turn to RHP Luis Castillo, who's been hit fairly hard this season, ranking in the eighth percentile in hard-hit rate allowed and the 22nd in average exit velocity.
Additionally, Castillo throws a healthy dose of a four-seamer (46% usage), coupled with a sinker (22%) and a slider (20%).
Springer has proven to be a good fastball hitter, batting .305 against the four-seamer with a .667 slug. However, he’s handled the sinker even more effectively with a .375 average and a .693 expected slug rate.
Based on Castillo’s repertoire, there’s a 68% chance Springer sees one of those pitches in each at-bat, and then there’s a good chance he clobbers it for extra bases again, as he’s done all postseason.
Today’s Blue Jays Game 4 same-game parlay (SGP)
George Springer Over 1.5 total bases
George Springer Over 0.5 runs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Springer has crossed home plate in four straight games and has scored eight times in seven playoff games. Batting leadoff gives him more chances to get on base in front of the heart of the order.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. finally broke out in the ALCS, going 4-for-4 with nine total bases collected. Much like he did last series, I expect his bat to stay hot.
Additionally, Vladdy has two extra base hits in his career against Castillo.
Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch Blue Jays Game 4
| Location | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Thursday, October 16, 2025 |
| First pitch | 8:33 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Max Scherzer (Regular season: 5-5, 5.19 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Luis Castillo (1-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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