The Houston Astros and the Texas Rangers wrap up an eventful four-game series tonight with an intriguing pitching matchup, as Spencer Arrighetti takes on Nathan Eovaldi.
The Rangers are -122 moneyline favorites, and my Astros vs. Rangers predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, May 28 see value in that line.
Who will win Astros vs Rangers today: Rangers moneyline (-133)
Spencer Arrighetti's sensational start to 2026 is mostly smoke-and-mirrors, creating value in the Texas Rangers moneyline. I'd play it to -145.
The Houston Astros hurler's 1.32 ERA is belied by his 4.78 xERA, which ranks in the 26th percentile. He's not inducing enough batters to chase (29th percentile), leading to his eighth percentile walk rate.
Once Arrighetti exits, an Astros bullpen ranked 29th in xFIP over the last two weeks (4.99) will take over.
The Rangers are not an offensive dynamo (.687 OPS), but they're at least on the improve over the last two weeks with a .702 OPS.
COVERS INTEL: Eovalidi is in the 84th percentile in ground-ball rate, and the Astros hit them at an above-average clip (43.2% vs. 42.8%).
Astros vs Rangers Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-115)
There's a low total on the board here, and it's easy to see why.
Countering Arrighetti is Nathan Eovaldi, who has been elite in several metrics this year, including whiff rate (90th percentile) and walk rate (91st percentile). Backing him is a Texas bullpen ranked 10th in xFIP over the last two weeks (3.90).
The Astros' offense is in a funk right now, ranking 28th in batting average since May 14 (.208).
The Rangers, who were no-hit just two days ago, do not have the firepower to carry the Over by themselves.
I'm comfortable with Under 7.5 at -125, as well as Under 7 at +100.
Astros vs Rangers odds
- Moneyline: Astros +117 | Rangers -122
- Run line: Astros +1.5 | Rangers -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Astros vs Rangers trend
The Rangers have hit the Under in 28 of their last 50 games (+8.50 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Rangers.
How to watch Astros vs Rangers and game info
| Location | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date | Thursday, May 28, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | SCHN, RSN |
| Astros starting pitcher | Spencer Arrighetti (6-1, 1.32 ERA) |
| Rangers starting pitcher | Nathan Eovaldi (5-5, 3.65 ERA) |
Astros vs Rangers latest injuries
Astros vs Rangers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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