The Houston Astros and the Seattle Mariners will wrap up their three-game series at T-Mobile Park on Sunday afternoon.
These AL West rivals have been evenly-matched through eight meetings this season, with each team winners of four apiece following the Mariners’ 6-0 victory on Saturday.
Who will come out on top in Sunday’s series finale? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs Mariners on Sunday, May 29.
Astros vs Mariners odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Astros were unveiled by oddsmakers as consensus -141 favorites, and that line has since been bet up to as high as -155 by this writing. The consensus opening total was 8.0, and most major sportsbooks have stayed on that number. The vig on the Under has been increased slightly on some sites.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Astros vs Mariners predictions
Picks made on 5/29/2022 at 10:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Astros vs Mariners game info
• Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
• Date: Sunday, May 29, 2022
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• TV: ATTSN-SW, Root Sports
Astros vs Mariners betting preview
Starting pitchers
Luis Garcia (3-3, 3.38 ERA): Garcia will try to end his month of May on a winning note following two straight losing decisions. Keeping the ball in the park would go a long way in helping him attain that goal, as he’s surrendered seven four-baggers over his last seven outings. Garcia has yet to take on the Mariners in 2022.
Marco Gonzales (3-4, 3.74 ERA): Gonzales picked up his second straight win against the A’s on Monday despite giving up five earned runs. The Seattle southpaw didn’t allow a single walk in that start after surrendering 12 through his first four appearances of May, but eight hits against helped drive up his pitch count. Like Garcia, Gonzales will try to keep the homers down to a minimum after allowing nine through his first nine efforts of the year.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Astros: Jake Odorizzi SP (Out).
Mariners: Jesse Winker RF (Questionable), Ken Giles RP (Questionable), Abraham Toro 3B (Out), Erik Swanson RP (Out), Tom Murphy C (Out), Mitch Haniger (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Astros are 20-8 in their last 28 games against left-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Mariners
Astros vs Mariners picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Astros should be able to build an early lead against Marco Gonzales and let their top-notch bullpen do the heavy lifting late to secure the victory.
Several members of the Houston lineup have strong numbers against Gonzales, starting with Michael Brantley, who’s 12-for-27 (.444) lifetime with only one strikeout. Yordan Alvarez is 5-for-12 (.417) and Alex Bregman is 10-for-32 (.313). And while those are relatively small sample sizes, it's reflective of just how potent this offense is. It would not be shocking to see Gonzales get sent to the showers early in this one.
The Astros are one of the few teams in the majors averaging more runs per game on the road than at home this season, as they’ve tallied 4.37 runs per game as the visitors but just 3.65 per game at Minute Maid Park. Kyle Tucker — batting .175 at home with one dinger but .283 on the road with seven round-trippers — has been a driving factor behind this.
Luis Garcia –— who sports a 2.57 ERA in May — should give the ‘Stros five effective innings before manager Dusty Baker dips into the bullpen. No team has pitched better in relief than Houston this year, as they boast a 2.53 ERA.
Rafael Montero and Ryne Stanek have combined for 20 scoreless appearances in 20 chances during May, and have sat idle since Wednesday. Seattle should expect at least one, if not both, of them to get work in on Sunday before closer Ryan Pressly (four straight successful saves) enters if the score is tight in the late innings.
Trend bettors should note that the Astros are 40-16 in the last 56 meetings with Seattle and that the Mariners are 9-21 in their last 30 overall.
Prediction: Astros moneyline (-145 at WynnBET)
Over/Under analysis
The first five innings Over might be a better bet than the full game Over, due to the presence of a rested Astros bullpen, but bettors should still expect this game to go above the listed total with relative ease.
Garcia has been dancing with danger in his last three starts based on his 1.571 WHIP in that span. The Mariners’ J.P. Crawford (4-for-7) and Ty France (3-for-7) have given the 25-year-old right-hander trouble in limited opportunities, albeit neither has secured an extra-base hit against him. However, the pair have been tearing the cover off the ball of late, with the former gathering seven hits in his last 13 at-bats (.538), and the latter going 18-for-41 (.439) since May 18.
Seattle is seventh in runs per game at home in 2022 (4.90), so it’s unlikely that Garcia will escape unscathed.
The Astros won’t just have the opportunity to attack a vulnerable starter in Gonzales on Sunday afternoon, they’ll also get their shot at the Seattle’s 22nd-ranked bullpen by ERA (4.23). Even if Houston doesn’t jump out to an early lead, the comeback should always be well within its grasp.
T-Mobile Park has seen some high-scoring games of late, as the Over is 21-10-1 in the last 32 games here.
Prediction: Over 8 (-102 at FanDuel)
Best bet
After an uncharacteristically poor start to the season, Jose Altuve has caught fire for Houston. It’s hard to envision the Seattle pitching staff keeping him off base on Sunday afternoon.
Altuve has at least one hit in 20 of his last 22 contests, batting .349 in that span. He also has eight home runs and 11 RBI in that stretch, so he’s not just amassing harmless singles.
The Venezuela native is 10-for-30 all-time against Gonzales and a combined 5-for-11 (.455) against Mariners bullpen arms Sergio Romo and Paul Sewald in his career.
This is a pretty good price on this prop, so take Altuve to get into the hit column in this spot.
Pick: Jose Altuve Over 0.5 hits (-233)
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