Don’t be surprised if NFL betting is down in Week 9 with more than a handful of teams down to second- or third-string quarterbacks.
- Seven backup quarterbacks are starting in Week 9, including six who have yet to play.
- Bettors are trusting J.J. McCarthy and the Giants, not Joe Milton and the Eagles.
- The Bears are the most-bet team by tickets at BetMGM this week.
There are even matchups featuring backup signal-callers on both sides, which is not typically a recipe for heavy betting action.
“(Bettors are) unsure of who's actually going to play and how to handicap a game when you haven't even seen a quarterback play before,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told Covers. “You'd like to know when you're betting a game, that all the pieces are there. And if they're not, sometimes it just has to be a pass.”
That doesn’t mean there will be no action on those games, but Avello said it usually comes from bettors who jump on an early number before bookmakers adjust. Others look for value.
This week will greatly test that theory. Aside from Thursday night, when the Ravens started Joe Fagnano against the Jaguars, six other backups are playing this week: Minnesota’s Carson Wentz, Arizona’s Gardner Minshew, the Giants’ J.J. McCarthy, Philadelphia’s Joe Milton, Cleveland’s Shedeur Sanders, and Seattle’s Drew Lock.
Backing backups?
Only one game involving a backup QB ranks in the top five most-bet games at BetMGM: Cardinals-Seahawks. That matchup features two of the better-known second-stringers. However, Lock is dealing with an elbow injury himself, which is keeping bettors away from the game so far, Avello said.
That could be why DraftKings reported a split, with the Cardinals (+8.5) getting a slight majority of the bets and the Seahawks taking a higher percentage of wagers.
The public is definitely fading the Eagles and Milton in his first career start. McCarthy has now played a couple of games in place of Jaxon Dart, and the Giants (-3) are BetMGM’s second-most-bet spread team by handle so far this week, getting 91% of the money and more than 80% of the wagers.
With the Browns officially announcing Friday that Deshaun Watson will be replaced by Sanders against the Saints (-3), just 13% of the money has come in on Cleveland at DraftKings.
Wentz, one of the veterans of the backup QB group, and the Vikings are 3-point home underdogs Monday night, but bettors are loading up on the Bills, who are getting more than 60% of both the tickets and handle at BetMGM.
| Week 9 notable games | DraftKings spread splits | BetMGM spread splits |
|---|---|---|
 - (+3) |
CIN 82% bets CIN 65% handle |
CIN 67% bets CIN 74% handle |
 - (+7) |
DET 83% bets DET 81% handle |
DET 64% bets DET 62% handle |
 - (-8.5) |
ARI 52% bets SEA 59% handle |
ARI 58% bets SEA 50% handle |
 - (-6) |
CHI 81% bets TB 51% handle |
CHI 83% bets CHI 85% handle |
Popular spread teams
The Bears (-6 vs. Bucs) are the most-bet team this week by tickets at BetMGM and are getting over 80% of the bets and handle ahead of Sunday’s prime-time showdown. Chicago is also a popular moneyline pick, with 90% of the handle, so operators are likely expecting the Bears to end up on a lot of parlays.
The Broncos (-2.5 at Panthers) are the second-most-bet team by tickets and first by handle, followed by the Bengals by tickets in Sunday morning’s game against the Falcons (+3) in Madrid, Spain.
Bettors are also sticking with one of their tried-and-true teams - the Detroit Lions, who are in BetMGM’s top five in both categories.
Interesting spots
The Chiefs own one of the biggest spreads (-9.5) versus the New York Jets this week, but bettors are torn so far on who to back. Kansas City is getting 59% of the bets at DraftKings, but the handle is split evenly. New York is the most popular moneyline underdog at BetMGM with odds of +400 to win outright.
The Rams opened as 5.5-point favorites at Washington, but that line has come down a point, even though the Commanders are getting less than 30% of the bets and handle at DraftKings.
Bettors had begun to lose faith in the Cowboys (-5.5 at Colts) after some poor play in recent weeks, but they are back on Dallas at DraftKings, which is getting more than 80% of both categories. Avello said bettors could be backing the Cowboys in case Colts star running back Jonathan Taylor doesn’t play or is limited because of a trade situation.
The 49ers are starting to take money as 10-point favorites against the Raiders, who are getting a higher percentage of tickets and handle. However, Avello said the spread is going up. The winless Chargers are drawing just 3% of the money in Sunday’s contest against the Texans, who are now -6 after opening as 3-point favorites.
BetMGM totals, props
Most-bet total: Jets-Chiefs over 48.
Other popular totals: Bengals-Falcons over 52.5 and Lions-Dolphins over 50.5.
Most-bet anytime touchdown scorer: Mike Gesicki (+230).
Other popular anytime touchdown picks: Jonah Coleman (+105) and Colston Loveland (+165).
Most-bet first touchdown scorer: Ja’Marr Chase (+750) in the Bengals-Falcons game in Madrid.
Most popular player prop by tickets: Ryan Flournoy over 33.5 receiving yards.
Other popular player props: Matthew Stafford under 33.5 passing attempts and Justin Jefferson over 75.5 receiving yards.
