Saturday is shaping up to be a college football enthusiast’s dream.
- Six top-20 matchups tie an AP Poll record.
- Miami-Notre Dame is going to draw the most attention on Saturday.
- The SEC has multiple games that could very well decide playoff fates.
With seven games between ranked teams in Week 10, it’s also a great scenario for sportsbooks. From the Holy War to season-defining SEC matchups, to Catholics vs. Convicts, this is the greatest college football weekend of the year.
“You got a lot of games throughout the day, which people are going to be glued to all day long, starting from morning to night,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told Covers this week. “Their wives may not be that happy with the schedule, but we certainly are.”
While this isn’t the first big weekend college football has seen, it’s setting up to be the one with the most drama. Week 10 has been circled for months, just based on some of the matchups, like Miami-Notre Dame, Oregon-Ohio State, and the annual Alabama-LSU early-November rivalry game.
But with the first release of the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday, teams now know where they stand and what they need to do. Jockeying for position and keeping playoff hopes alive become paramount.
Throw in a few surprise matchups that have serious postseason implications, like BYU-Utah and Kentucky-Tennessee.
“We can project what some of these matchups may be, but it doesn't always mean that they're going to work out,” Avello said.
It certainly does this Saturday. There are six top-20 matchups, tying an AP Poll record for the most in a single weekend.
| Week 10 notable games | DraftKings spread splits | BetMGM spread splits |
|---|---|---|
BYU  Utah  (-4.5) |
BYU 64% bets BYU 80% handle |
Utah 55% bets Utah 51% handle |
Alabama  LSU  (-6) |
Bama 64% bets LSU 56% handle |
Bama 52% bets LSU 55% handle |
Georgia  Ole Miss  (+3.5) |
UGA 67% bets UGA 66% handle |
UGA 61% bets UGA 61% handle |
Miami  Notre Dame  (-7.5) |
Miami 75% bets Miami 74% handle |
Miami 59% bets ND 71% handle |
Unexpected change
No. 1 Miami heads into a monumental primetime showdown with No. 11 Notre Dame as a…7.5-point underdog? That’s right, the undefeated Hurricanes were originally +3.5 on the road in South Bend, but news leaked that star receiver Malachi Toney was dealing with an injury, so the spread moved toward the Irish by a few points.
Then, it was reported that Toney would have surgery, ending his chances of playing in this marquee matchup. It’s a hefty move for just one player, especially when he’s not a quarterback.
“But when you look at the offensive production, a lot of it comes from Toney,” Avello said about a player who has over 70 catches and 1,000 yards to go with 13 touchdowns in eight games.
“Is there somebody else in that team that's going to pick it up, pick up the slack that they lost? I don't know, but you know that's basically what we're looking at. Toney seems to be involved in everything offensively.”
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Taking shots
So far, DraftKings bettors are happy taking the points with the top-ranked underdog, with 76% of the tickets and 73% of the money coming in on Miami. Avello said the moneyline hasn’t seen a lot of action yet, but he expects bettors to either put Notre Dame in parlays or take shots on the Hurricanes at +225.
“Yeah, they're missing one player, but they're still a quality team,” Avello said. “Still got a good quarterback, a guy (Darian Mensah) certainly in the hunt for the Heisman.”
No surprise, but this is already the most-bet game at BetMGM, which reported on Friday that Miami +7.5 is the most popular spread by tickets, but the Irish have received the most handle of any team in Week 10.
SEC spotlight
The SEC has been one of the most volatile conferences college football has seen in years. The league has eight teams ranked in the top 20, but none are undefeated, and that group has a combined 14 losses.
There are four key games that could determine who stays alive for the playoffs and whose season is all but over after Saturday.
LSU-Alabama is the third most-bet game of the week so far at BetMGM. LSU opened as a 4.5-point favorite, but the line has moved to 6 at DraftKings, where the No. 14 Tigers are getting 56% of the handle, but the No. 5 Crimson Tide have taken 64% of the bets.
Avello expects Alabama-LSU to be the biggest SEC betting draw and likely rival Miami-Notre Dame in handle, with it being in the middle window and featuring two high-profile teams that always receive attention.
“(Bettors) do like them early in this one, but the winner of this game continues the journey, and the loser is probably out,” Avello said. “I look at this one to be a heavily watched and heavily bet (game).”
Hopes alive
In the other big night game going head-to-head with Miami-Notre Dame, No. 2 Georgia (-3.5) is the third most-bet spread team by tickets at BetMGM, where the Bulldogs are getting 61% of the bets and handle against No. 10 Ole Miss.
Texas-Missouri begins the day in another game where a No. 7 Longhorns’ loss could end their playoff hopes. BetMGM customers have made home underdog Missouri (+3).
Even though the No. 18 Tigers are getting 64% of the tickets at DraftKings, Avello believes Texas money will show up on Saturday in a big way, even though the 6-2 Longhorns “have had their struggles.”
No. 6 Kentucky has been a huge surprise this year and heads to No. 13 Tennessee, looking to pull off an upset as a higher-ranked team. The Wildcats are a 6.5-point underdog, getting 61% of the bets, but the Vols have taken 60% of the money, a similar trend at BetMGM.
Opposite directions
The Buckeyes are getting the majority of the money and tickets in a contest that looked great in August. Instead, Ohio State-Oregon could easily get lost in the shuffle on Saturday, even though both teams are still ranked in the top 25 with a combined five losses.
“I don't think this game will draw anywhere near the money that it would have drawn if both teams had their starting quarterbacks and things were different,” Avello said. “I think this game has lost a lot of its luster.”
A game on the other end of the spectrum is BYU-Utah, a heated rivalry that’s packing a bigger punch in terms of the national picture. These two teams haven’t had as much success in recent years as some of the other teams playing, but it’s hard to find a better early Saturday matchup.
“This is probably for if I had to watch one game out of the whole slate, this might be the game I'd watch," added Avello.
No. 3 Utah (-4.5) is the fourth most-bet spread team by tickets at BetMGM, but 80% of the handle at DraftKings is backing No. 12 BYU.
