Popular prediction market operator Kalshi offered better pricing than sportsbooks FanDuel and DraftKings during the first week of the NFL season, according to data from Citizens.
Key Takeaways
- Kalshi’s implied vig during Week 1 was 12 basis points below FanDuel’s and 19 below DraftKings’.
- Kalshi has reversed last season’s implied-vig disadvantage against the sportsbooks.
- The two sportsbooks offered better pricing on parlays than Kalshi did on combos.
Kalshi’s implied vig in Week 1 was 4.32%, lower than FanDuel’s 4.44% and DraftKings’ 4.51%.
“Superior pricing and the ability to cash out are the leading reasons we believe retail customers choose a prediction market platform over an online sportsbook in states with legal sports betting,” Citizens said in its recent report. “Our analysis suggests pricing has been more favorable on prediction markets through most of 2026.”
That wasn’t the case last year when Kalshi’s implied vig during the NFL season was 4.84%, well behind FanDuel’s 4.42% and DraftKings’ 4.48%. Citizens said the prediction market operator’s improvement is due to increased trading volume, market participation, and competition among liquidity providers.
That allows trading exchanges to compete with U.S. sports betting operators and attract more trading because of the better pricing, “which in turn further improves liquidity and pricing,” Citizens said.
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Kalshi's pricing edge
Citizens tracked pregame pricing across moneyline and over/under markets on Friday, two days before the first Sunday slate. Across 28 data points, Kalshi’s implied vig was 3% lower than FanDuel’s and 4% lower than DraftKings’.
The pricing gap between Kalshi and the sportsbooks began to narrow as the 2025 NFL season progressed. By March Madness and the World Cup this year, Kalshi had moved ahead of FanDuel and DraftKings by 30 to 40 basis points, according to Citizens.
As strong as Kalshi’s pricing was for Week 1 games, the prediction market platform lagged behind the two sports betting giants in combos (parlays at sportsbooks). Citizens used the implied vig on overs and favorites for every NFL game and found that Kalshi’s implied vig was 8% worse than DraftKings' and FanDuel's before accounting for transaction fees.
“Kalshi pricing last season was worse on average, and we are watching to see if Kalshi's implementation of a combo market making fee in August will impact spreads (and the vig) for market makers,” Citizens said in the report. “Kalshi combo volume (as a percentage of total volume) now exceeds parlay penetration over the last several months.”
Trading surge
Kalshi is the world's most popular prediction market, with sports event contracts accounting for the vast majority of the operator’s trading. From Thursday through Sunday, accounting for 15 of the NFL’s 16 Week 1 games, Kalshi dominated other prediction market sites, according to data from Aldrin Research, including DraftKings’ prediction product.
The company saw $2.46 billion traded on Sunday, a new single-day record. Nearly $1.5 billion of that total came from combos, while NFL games accounted for 67.2% of the amount traded on the league across nine operators that Aldrin tracks.
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