The Georgia Bulldogs are putting distance between themselves and the rest of college football in national championship odds at prediction markets.
The Bulldogs thumped No. 10 Ole Miss, the team that knocked them out of the last College Football Playoff, 42-7 on Saturday.
- Georgia has been the national championship favorite for close to a month.
- Notre Dame settled into the top challenger position.
- Ohio State and Ole Miss dropped below 1% likelihood at Kalshi.
Since Georgia suffered an unexpected home loss to unranked Auburn on Oct. 17, the Bulldogs have beat Florida and Ole Miss by a combined score of 69-15, resulting in a massive surge in national championship probability at prediction markets.
Saturday’s victory came on a stifling defensive performance. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss was under constant duress and turned the ball over twice without scoring a touchdown. On the other side, Georgia QB Gunner Stockton threw only 15 times and still accounted for five touchdowns.
Prediction leaders Kalshi and Polymarket both have the Bulldogs at a 29% likelihood of winning the next national title. Both platforms had them at 23% after they beat Florida last weekend.
Kalshi and Polymarket also view Notre Dame as the unquestioned second-place challenger to Georgia. Both platforms have them at 19% after the Irish took down an undefeated and top-ranked Miami squad sans Malachi Toney at home, 31-24.
There’s slight disagreement over the next two teams. Kalshi traders believe that Alabama (11%) deserves the third-place spot after its 31-13 trouncing of LSU. They also have Miami (10%) just behind after the Canes suffered their first loss of the season.
Polymarket customers also have Miami at 10%, but ahead of Alabama, listed at 9%.
The board gets smaller
The college football season has gotten to the point that there’s lots of data on teams across the country, and very few teams have even a 1% chance of winning the national title.
Kalshi and Polymarket both believe that Texas is the final team in the top five for contenders at 9% and 8%, respectively. That comes after they rallied to beat a confident Missouri team on the road, bolstered by 297 yards and three touchdowns from QB Arch Manning.
Both also have defending champion Indiana in hot pursuit at 8% and 7%.
Kalshi only gives four other teams realistic chances: Utah (4%), UCLA (3%), LSU (3%), and Oregon (2%). Ole Miss and Ohio State, which suffered a second straight loss Saturday, both dropped out of the race.
Polymarket has Ole Miss (2%), LSU (2%), Oregon (2%), Ohio State (1%), USC (1%), Texas Tech (1%), and Florida (1%) still in the hunt.
The two platforms have processed nearly $80 million in overall trading volume in national championship prediction market contracts.
Next weekend’s college football slate includes ranked matchups that will have substantial impacts on the national championship picture. Games include:
- No. 18 Missouri vs. No. 2 Georgia
- No. 3 Utah vs. No. 22 Arizona
- No. 24 Florida vs No. 6 Kentucky
- No. 7 Texas vs. No. 14 LSU
- No. 20 USC vs. No. 4 Indiana
*Note: AP poll rankings referenced are from the ongoing week before the weekly 2 p.m. ET update.
