The massive changes to roster construction in college football over the last few years have trickled down to sports betting, a renowned oddsmaker says.
Key Takeaways
- DraftKings Sportsbook director says oddsmakers have to keep a closer eye on roster construction.
- Bettors are opting to lean into the upper tier of teams and take a wait-and-see approach with the second tier.
- The operator likes where it is with the Heisman Trophy market.
DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello recently told Covers that the effects of the transfer portal, NIL, and constant coaching moves have made it harder for operators to feel confident about pricing teams before the season, noting a team’s roster can look dramatically different within two months.
“We really have to keep an eye on it,” Avello.
But the public has changed its habits as well.
“They're not worried about Ohio State or Texas or Oregon or Georgia, Notre Dame,” Avello said. “They know those teams pretty much have what they need, but then there's some other teams.”
One program that has gone through massive changes is LSU, which replaced coach Brian Kelly with Lane Kiffin late last year. The Tigers, who are +1,700 at DraftKings in national championship odds, also lost their quarterback and plenty of other key players.
LSU is the eighth team listed by odds in the sportsbook’s future market, but bettors aren’t rushing to get a ton of money down on unknowns this time of year. And in this college football climate, there are many more teams in that boat than there used to be.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account“That’s kind of the way they approach it. I wouldn't say that they're more cautious when it comes to betting,” Avello said. “They’re still betting this as strong as they’ve ever have, but sometimes, if a team loses a lot and they’re not a team that usually is restocked, that's where the wait-and-see comes in.”
Old reliables
DraftKings leaves those futures markets up all season, so Avello expects bettors to start taking chances on teams outside the top five or 10 as the season goes along.
As of late August, fifth-ranked Texas (+650) is getting 31% of the operator’s national championship handle, the most of any team. No. 4 Notre Dame (+600) is right behind the Longhorns at 20%.
No. 1 Ohio State (+600) is third at 11%, followed by No. 2 Oregon (+750) at 7% and No. 7 Miami (+1,000) at 6%, illustrating Avello’s point that bettors aren’t as quick to wager on the second tier of teams with longer odds and big brands. Those programs include Texas Tech (+2,200), Alabama (+2,500), and Oklahoma (+3,000).
“You know Ohio State’s gonna restock. You know Georgia’s gonna restock. You know that’s all gonna happen,” Avello said. “Alabama’s a team who is not the same since (Nick) Saban left, at least on the betting board. When he was the coach, they knew what they would have coming back, and now that’s a wait-and-see team for a lot of bettors.”
Taking chances
The teams creating liabilities for DraftKings are far down the oddsboard. Avello said bettors would rather take chances on Kentucky at +35,000, Oklahoma State at +40,000, and UCLA at +60,000.
“Some of those teams put us in a pretty good liability because the odds are high and people don't necessarily think or believe that those teams will make it, but the price is worth the shot,” Avello said.
Assessing the Heisman
Avello feels like DraftKings has a clearer picture and a more spreadable handle in another popular futures market: the Heisman Trophy.
Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr is a +700 favorite to take home the sport’s most prestigious award this season, and he’s getting 13% of the money. Texas QB Arch Manning (+750) is right behind him at 12% of the handle.
Miami’s Darian Mensah (+1,150) at 7%, Texas Tech’s Will Hammond (+4,000) at 5%, and LSU’s Sam Leavitt (+2,000) at 4% - all signal-callers - round out the top five in the market’s money wagered.
Avello said Oklahoma’s John Mateer (+2,500) and Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy (+7,400) are also seeing some notable action. He thinks Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss (+1,300) and Ohio State passer Jeremiah Smith (+1,400) could see Heisman market action pick up during the season.
“We have Carr as the top choice, so he certainly is taking some money, but nobody's going to put us in any real big liability with these shorter odds,” Avello said. “Manning, we're in good shape so far. We're in good shape with (Oregon QB Dante) Moore so far. (Julian) Sayin from Ohio State, we’re OK with him.
“This is another market that will stay up and will be adjusted. Some of those guys move up a little bit, they start having good years, and they'll get played. So there'll be an overall huge adjustment on this throughout the year.”
