Prediction markets are split over who should be favored to win the national championship after Week 8 of the college football season.
Market leader Kalshi likes the Georgia Bulldogs as the national title front-runner, while Polymarket has Miami (FL) as the outright leader.
- Kalshi had Miami as the leader last week after Georgia lost to Auburn.
- Defending champion Indiana needed overtime to avoid a second straight loss to Michigan.
- Kalshi lists UCLA at 3%, while Polymarket does not have them listed at all.
Miami was the undisputed leader in prediction markets after Georgia lost to unranked Auburn last weekend. However, Kalshi users are going against the grain.
Miami improved to 7-0 with a 52-23 win over Pittsburgh. Georgia was on a bye week, preparing to play Florida at a neutral site next Saturday.
Just another day at the office for @MALACHITONEY2 🤷♂️ 📺: ESPN https://t.co/MgPrv4HPfz
— Miami Hurricanes Football (@CanesFootball) October 24, 2026
While conventional logic would suggest that Miami did nothing to lose its support from traders, Kalshi users bumped Georgia to a leading 17% chance of winning the national title. Miami is close behind at 16%.
Polymarket also has Miami at 16%, but with one significant difference: Georgia, Ohio State, and Notre Dame all trail the Hurricanes at 15% each. Kalshi lists Notre Dame and Ohio State — both of which were also on byes — at 14% and 12%, respectively.
Although the market probabilities for these four teams are similar, there are key differences. Kalshi believes there is a 5% degree of separation between first-place Georgia and fourth-place Ohio State, while Polymarket believes that the group is only separated by one percentage point.
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Who else is being considered?
Despite key differences pertaining to the leaders, Kalshi and Polymarket both agree that the defending champion Indiana Hoosiers are in the fifth spot in the national championship odds race. However, their recent performances have not been convincing.
IU’s last three-game stretch included a three-point win over unranked Nebraska, a loss to Ohio State, and a 13-6 overtime victory over unranked Michigan.
Kalshi gives the Hoosiers an 8% chance of winning the national championship. Polymarket lists them at 7%, less than half of the three-team group immediately above them.
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The platforms mostly have the same teams in the chase pack, albeit in different orders. Kalshi lists LSU (7%), Texas (6%), and Alabama as the teams just outside of the top five. Polymarket has the probabilities as Texas (6%), LSU (5%), and Alabama (5%).
At Kalshi, UCLA (3%), Florida (2%), Ole Miss (2%), and Utah (2%) are the only other teams with likelihoods exceeding 1%. That's the highest that UCLA has been all year, and Ole Miss is down from 5% after its weekend loss to Texas.
At Polymarket, Ole Miss (4%), Florida (2%), Oregon (1%), Oklahoma (1%), Texas Tech (1%), and USC (1%) are all on the board. Despite being 7-0, UCLA is not listed.
