Derby Day at Churchill Downs will be celebrated with a sensational 14-race card, and the 148th Run for the Roses is the headliner!
We’ll give out our picks for four of the seven undercard stakes taking place under the twin spires this Saturday before proceeding to the main event in our best Kentucky Derby spot plays.
You can check out the full field's prices for the main event in our Kentucky Derby odds.
Kentucky Derby undercard spot plays
Race 5 (Post time: 12:36 p.m. ET)
The Grade II, $500,000 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile
Trainer Chad Brown has been a dominating force in the distaff turf division over the last several years, so it’s no surprise he has what appear to be the two best horses in this race:
No. 8 Speak of the Devil (2/1, morning-line favorite) ships in from her native France – where she is multiple Group I-placed – off a highly-rated victory in a minor stake at Saint-Cloud last November. She’s working forwardly in the mornings and lures Flavien Prat, arguably the best turf rider in North America. Brown wins at a 39% clip with first-time imports.
No. 7 In Italian (3/1) and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. are a threat to take this field from gate to wire. The daughter of Dubawi has won each of her last three races in front-running fashion, including the Grade III Honey Fox Stakes at Gulfstream last time out.
The play: $10 exacta box 7/8
Race 9 (Post time: 3:40 p.m. ET)
The Grade I, $500,000 American Turf Stakes
No. 7 Sy Dog (7/2, morning-line favorite) is a perfect 3-for-3 lifetime, including an impressive score in the Grade III Transylvania Stakes last time out, in which he closed into a very slow pace for the score. Irad Ortiz rides for Graham Motion.
No. 11 Dowagic Chief (10/1) could get brave if left unchecked on the front end. He won a minor stakes at the Fair Grounds two-back before trying to get into the Kentucky Derby via the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway. No. 2 Main Event (5-1) won convincingly over a pair of today’s foes in the Cutler Bay Stakes at Gulfstream when last seen.
The play: $6 exacta 7/2, 11, $3 win 11
Race 10 (Post time: 4:31 p.m. ET)
The Grade I, $750,000 Churchill Downs Stakes
No. 3 Jackie’s Warrior (5/2, morning-line favorite) bounced back from a disappointing Breeders’ Cup Sprint try with a win under wraps in the Grade III Count Fleet Sprint Handicap last month. He has no clear pace foes in this one, and Joel Rosario stays in the irons for Steve Asmussen, a combo that won at a 29% clip at Churchill last year.
No. 5 Reinvestment Risk (7/2) looks like the lone threat to the top pick in here, as he’s made incredible progress in the speed figure department in his four-year-old season. There was no shame in losing to the mighty Speaker’s Corner in the Grade I Carter last time out.
The play: $14 exacta 3/5, $6 exacta 5/3
$200 risk-free bet
RISKFREE
Race 11 (Post time: 5:27 p.m. ET)
The Grade I, $1 million Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic
No. 8 Adhamo (9/2) closed from far back to just miss the win in his stateside debut – the Grade III Fair Grounds Stakes – when last seen despite a seven-wide trip. Look for Prat to work out the right journey and post the minor upset here.
No. 6 Shirl’s Speight (3/1, morning-line favorite) has now won three straight, including a gutsy score in the Grade I Maker’s Mark Mile last month. However, the son of Speightstown has never gone this far.
The play: $8 exacta box 6/8, $4 win 8
Kentucky Derby spot play
Race 12 (Post time: 6:57 p.m. ET)
The Grade I, $3 million Kentucky Derby
When Triple Crown champion Justify won the Kentucky Derby in 2018, he snapped a longstanding drought known as the “curse of Apollo,” as no horse since Apollo had won the Run for the Roses without running at age two since 1882. Now No. 12 Taiba (12/1) could become the second horse in five years to accomplish the feat, but with one fewer start to his credit than Justify had going into the Derby.
Taiba has the co-fastest last-out Beyer Speed Figure in the field (102), earned when he beat No. 6 Messier (8/1) fair-and-square in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby. He drilled a bullet in preparation for Saturday and will once again have the services of Mike Smith, a two-time Derby winner and the former rider of Justify.
No. 15 White Abarrio (10/1) strung together two impressive starts at Gulfstream in order to reach the Kentucky Derby, taking both the Grade III Holy Bull and the Grade I Florida Derby with relative ease. He finished ahead of No. 8 Charge It (20/1), No. 9 Tiz the Bomb (30/1), No. 13 Simplification (20/1) and No. 17 Classic Causeway (30/1) at least once apiece in those two starts. The Florida Derby has been a key prep in recent years, producing five of the last 15 Kentucky Derby winners (Barbaro, Big Brown, Orb, Nyquist, and Always Dreaming).
Charge It could be the biggest threat to the top two, and has a chance to give trainer Todd Pletcher his third career Kentucky Derby triumph. After settling for the runner-up spot on debut earlier this year, he won his second career start by 8 1/2 lengths. Charge It was a game second in the Florida Derby despite going four-wide on the far turn and wandering toward the rail twice down the lane. The impeccably-bred son of Tapit is drilling well for this and should have a say late.
No. 10 Zandon (3/1, morning-line favorite) and Prat will try to make one late run and sweep by the field in the stretch, a strategy that used to pay dividends, but not of late per our Kentucky Derby trends. His win in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland last time out was the best of his career, and Zandon’s pedigree and running style suggest the demanding 1 1/4-mile distance of the Derby will pose no problem. He is a must-use in any trifecta or superfecta plays.
The play: $10 win 12,15, $5 win 8
Kentucky Derby betting FAQs
Yes. There are a number of legal and authentic online racing books, which allow you to withdraw funds directly to your bank account.
There was a record $165.5 million bet on the 2019 Kentucky Derby. That was a 10 percent increase from 2018 which held the previous record of $149.9 million.
The lowest Win bet you can make is for $2. For the exotics, depending on where you play, many offer a 0.10 Superfecta wager at some betting locations.
You can bet on the upcoming Kentucky Derby as early as the day after the prior year's Derby. As the Kentucky Derby is limited to three-year-olds only, the early favorites are the horses having standout two-year-old campaigns.
You can place your wagers until the gates open. Once you hear, “and they're off" the window is officially closed. Soak up as much information in the post parade and loading the gate as you can. Knowledge is power.
With a Superfecta bet you are selecting the top four finishers in the race in order.
