The first 105-point race on the 2026 Road to the Kentucky Derby is set for Saturday, February 14 as Fair Grounds Race Course hosts the Grade II, $500,000 Risen Star Stakes.
My free betting picks for the Risen Star believe only two of the eight entrants have a shot to win, and one of them is morning-line favorite Paladin. I deliver my best bets for the Risen Star below.
Risen Star Stakes odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Fair Grounds Race 12
- Post time: 6:30 p.m. ET
- TV: FanDuel TV
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universe | 8-1 | +800 | +1600 |
| 2 | Golden Tempo | 3-1 | +300 | +500 |
| 3 | Carson Street | 8-1 | +800 | +1000 |
| 4 | Paladin | 8-5 | +160 | -120 |
| 5 | Chip Honcho | 6-1 | +600 | +1100 |
| 6 | Colt Forty Seven | 20-1 | +2000 | +4000 |
| 7 | Courting | 6-1 | +600 | +700 |
| 8 | Quality Mischief | 10-1 | +1000 | +1400 |
Odds as of 2-13.
No. 4 Paladin (8-5, morning-line favorite) was last seen winning the Grade II Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct on December 6. The Remsen has recently produced some quality runners like 2022 Belmont Stakes winner Mo Donegal and 2024 Belmont winner Dornoch.
That 1 1/8-mile two-year-old event is already looking like a key race, with runner-up Renegade returning to win the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs last Saturday.
Paladin's trainer — Chad Brown — took a similar approach with Sierra Leone just a couple of years ago, as that runner was beaten a nose by Dornoch in the Remsen before returning in the Risen Star and winning under Tyler Gaffalione, who gets a leg-up here, too.
The speed figures stamp Paladin as the one to beat, and we already know he can get today's nine-furlong distance.
No. 2 Golden Tempo (3-1) is the logical alternative following his fast-closing win in the Lecomte Stakes over this course last month. He should at least get an honest tempo with Carson Street and Chip Honcho — who took part in a pace battle in the Lecomte when last seen — also in the Risen Star field.
The extra 1/16th-mile should only help Golden Tempo, who is bred to run all day (by Curlin out of a Bernardini mare). Leading Fair Grounds pilot Jose Ortiz will have the call once more.
Best bet: $15 exacta 4/2, $5 exacta 2/4 ($20)
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Road to the Kentucky Derby
| Race | Date | Track | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breeders’ Cup Juvenile | October 31, 2025 | Del Mar | Ted Noffey |
| Lecomte Stakes | January 17, 2026 | Fair Grounds | Golden Tempo |
| Holy Bull Stakes | January 31 | Gulfstream Park | Nearly |
| Withers Stakes | February 6 | Aqueduct | Talk to Me Jimmy |
| Southwest Stakes | February 6 | Oaklawn Park | Silent Tactic |
| Robert B. Lewis Stakes | February 7 | Santa Anita Park | Plutarch |
| Sam F. Davis Stakes | February 7 | Tampa Bay Downs | Renegade |
| Risen Star Stakes | February 14 | Fair Grounds | TBD |
| Sunland Derby | February 15 | Sunland Park | TBD |
| John Battaglia Memorial | February 21 | Turfway Park | TBD |
| Fountain of Youth Stakes | February 28 | Gulfstream Park | TBD |
| Gotham Stakes | February 28 | Aqueduct | TBD |
| Rebel Stakes | March 1 | Oaklawn Park | TBD |
| San Felipe Stakes | March 7 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Tampa Bay Derby | March 7 | Tampa Bay Downs | TBD |
| Virginia Derby | March 14 | Colonial Downs | TBD |
| Louisiana Derby | March 21 | Fair Grounds | TBD |
| Jeff Ruby Steaks | March 21 | Turfway Park | TBD |
| Arkansas Derby | March 28 | Oaklawn Park | TBD |
| Florida Derby | March 28 | Gulfstream Park | TBD |
| UAE Derby | March 28 | Meydan (Dubai) | TBD |
| Santa Anita Derby | April 4 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Wood Memorial | April 4 | Aqueduct | TBD |
| Blue Grass Stakes | April 4 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Lexington Stakes | April 11 | Keeneland | TBD |
| Kentucky Derby | May 2 | Churchill Downs | TBD |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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