The 148th running of the Kentucky Derby takes place this Saturday at historic Churchill Downs (6:57 p.m. ET, NBC), with a full field of 20 expected to compete. Every edition of the “Run for the Roses” is unique in its own way, but there are several trends that handicappers can hang their hat on year after year as they pore over Kentucky Derby odds.
Here are the Top 5 trends that bettors should be aware of before they wager on the 2022 Kentucky Derby.
1. First things not first
One might think drawing an inside post in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field would help because horses can save ground from there, but the stats contradict that logic.
Since Ferdinand won from post one in 1986, the inside three post positions are a dismal 1-for-102, with Real Quiet’s victory from post three in 1998 being the lone exception. Post two has the longest drought of the trio, as Triple Crown champion Affirmed (1978) was the last horse to win from that draw.
The potential for traffic trouble to develop when breaking from those positions has likely contributed to this dry spell. Mo Donegal, Happy Jack, and Epicenter will be trying to snap this worrisome trend on Saturday.
Mo Donegal was last seen winning the Wood Memorial and is trained by two-time Kentucky Derby winner Todd Pletcher. Former Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. has the call. Two-time stakes-placed Happy Jack goes for former Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Doug O’Neill and multiple Grade I-winning rider Rafael Bejarano. Epicenter figures to take lots of money off his highly-rated Louisiana Derby score with Joel Rosario up for Steve Asmussen.
2. Put your best foot forward
The days of horses coming from the parking lot ala Mine That Bird (2009) to win the Run for the Roses appear to have vanished.
In each of the last eight runnings of the Kentucky Derby, the first horse to finish was no worse than third after the opening half-mile of the race. This trend has endured despite track conditions ranging from fast to sloppy and paces varying from a controlled 47.37 seconds to a blazing 45.72.
Horses like Messier and Taiba — both of whom typically run in the Top 3 throughout and possess “California speed” (horses from California are typically faster from the gate than their Eastern counterparts) — would seem to have an advantage. But 3-1 morning-line favorite Zandon — who closed from 10th to win the Blue Grass Stakes last time out — does not have a recent history working in his favor.
3. Kentucky Derby a tough assignment for “Big Easy” shippers
Epicenter — winner of the 2022 Louisiana Derby at New Orleans’ Fair Grounds Race Course — could go off as the post-time favorite in the Kentucky Derby. But if he wants to win on Saturday, he’ll have to buck a longstanding negative trend.
Only two horses in the 108-year history of the Louisiana Derby have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby: Black Gold in 1924 and Grindstone in 1996. Since 1997, only Hot Rod Charlie (2021), Gun Runner (2016), and Revolutionary (2013) have even hit the board in Louisville after winning the Fair Grounds’ most prestigious race for three-year-olds.
For what it’s worth, Epicenter has another major trend working against him. Despite becoming the winningest trainer in American horse racing history last summer, Steve Asmussen has yet to saddle a Derby victor, going 0-for-23 with only four in-the-money finishes.
4. Like father, like son
Rags-to-riches stories like California Chrome — who won the Kentucky Derby in 2014 despite his shortcomings in the pedigree department — can tug at the heartstrings. But savvy horseplayers know the vast majority of future champions come from regal bloodlines.
Of the last 13 Kentucky Derby winners, 11 were produced by a sire who won at least once at the Grade I level going one mile or longer. That includes Mandaloun (Into Mischief), who was awarded the 2021 Derby crown after Medina Spirit's disqualification.
Mo Donegal, Happy Jack, Messier, Charge It, Tiz the Bomb, Pioneer of Medina, Taiba, Cyberknife, Tawny Port, and Ethereal Road would all be precluded from win consideration if this trends holds up in 2022.
5. Speed kills
Many horseplayers are almost slavishly devoted to Beyer speed figures, the numbers that appear in bold next to a horse’s running line in the Daily Racing Form past performance pages. These numbers serve to compare the prior races of each competitor in a given heat, regardless of distance, surface, and track condition.
The figures are not meant to be taken as gospel — as Beyers earned in certain conditions by certain horses aren’t always replicated in differing circumstances — but there is a very reliable Beyer barometer when it comes to the Kentucky Derby.
Of the last 30 horses to win the Run for the Roses, 27 of them had a career-best Beyer speed figure of at least 95. If this trend continues into 2022, then Happy Jack, Smile Happy, Charge It, Tiz the Bomb, Barber Road, Cyberknife, Classic Causeway, Tawny Port, and Ethereal Road will all not be visiting the winner’s circle on Saturday.
