2025 Kentucky Derby Prop Bets: Sandman Outfinishes Journalism at Plus Odds

Nearly everyone knows you can bet on the Kentucky Derby odds the "traditional way" by making win, place, show, exacta, and trifecta single-race bets.

However, casual bettors are much more likely to bet on horse racing props than anything else, and bookmakers have adjusted to meet the demand this year. 

I've examined every market available and have selected my three favorite Kentucky Derby props for Saturday, May 3 at Churchill Downs.

Kentucky Derby prop picks

• Margin of victory: Head (+1200)
• Staring gate of winner: Gates 11-21 (+135)
• Race matchup: No. 17 Sandman (+150) over No. 8 Journalism

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Kentucky Derby props and best bets

Margin of victory: Head (+1200)

Here’s what we need to happen: a horse must win the race by a head, which means in the photo finish, the winning horse's head must be positioned just in front of the opposing horse's head. The horse can’t win by more than that margin, and it can’t win by a nose.

Here’s why I like this bet: The Kentucky Derby has been decided by less than one length 44 times throughout its 150-year history. While there haven’t been any head-margin victories in the 2000s so far (the closest being half-length finishes like Giacomo in 2005 and Medina Spirit in 2021), the way this race sets up on paper, a close finish is definitely in the cards.

Depending on who you ask or what tools you use to influence your handicapping, the pace should be honest to fast. There’s a very good chance that horses like Journalism and Sandman could climb quickly to the front. However, there could be other horses like Luxor Cafe and Tiztastic that push them. How hard those horses push each other is the question.

Nevertheless, I can't see either of the top choices blowing by each other in the home stretch. Nor can I see a horse like Sovereignty picking up so many pieces late in the final 1/4 mile that they win by a large margin.

No matter who gets to the wire first, it'll be tight.

I currently have this priced closer to +600, so I'd take a swing at this prop if your bookie offers +800 or better.

Staring gate of winner: Gates 11-21 (+135)

This one will divide some people, but I'm sticking to my guns and my early Kentucky Derby predictions by saying Sandman will be the horse in the winner’s circle. However, I do have a backup plan if he’s not there late and it’s taking a horse from the 11th to the 21st gate to win the Derby.

Yes, I know, right off the hop, gate 17 has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner in 150 races. Yes, I also know gate 14 hasn’t seen a winner since Carry Back in 1961, and gate 12 last produced a winner with Canonero II in 1971.

However, some outer gates have shown stronger performances. Gate 20 has one of the highest win percentages at 11.1%.

While Journalism is the favorite at 3-1 odds in gate 8, the next strongest contenders are positioned in the outer half of the field, giving the 11-21 range a statistical advantage in terms of horse quality.

As I mentioned in previous pieces, Sandman is a closer who will try to eat up ground in the race’s final half-mile. His running style often benefits from an outside position, allowing him to avoid early traffic and make a clean late run.

Add in the potential for a speed duel up front (with up to seven horses having frontrunner tendencies), and this could set up perfectly for closers starting from outside positions. Of course, things could go wrong, but a potential setup is there nonetheless.

Yes, Journalism could romp the field and make me look silly for even suggesting this prop bet, but given that most books offer Gates 11-21 at plus money, this wager is hard to pass up.

Betting education and resources

Race matchup: No. 17 Sandman (+150) over No. 8 Journalism

You've probably heard the experts talking about Journalism like he’s the LeBron James of the Kentucky Derby. However, as we learned on Wednesday night in L.A., sometimes even the best athletes forget to show up when the lights shine the brightest. And there's no grander stage in horse racing than the Kentucky Derby.

Hear me out: I've seen all the numbers. I heard all the analysis and “bold claims.” Nothing that I've seen or heard justifies Journalism being such a heavy favorite in a head-to-head matchup over Sandman.

My gut tells me Journalism will be forwardly placed. There's not a chance in hell that anyone will let Umberto Rispoli walk the dog with Journalism and set up some honest early fractions. If they do, those jockeys should put down the reins and consider a different career path. So, believe me when I say, they're going to be moving no matter who takes the front.

In fact, there's a good chance that the front-runners go too fast. I can't begin to tell you how many times I've seen this type of race scenario happen on a random Friday afternoon at Woodbine.

Almost always, what happens is the front-runners gas themselves out and finish poorly. By proxy, the horses who were held back early pick up the pieces late to finish higher.

And yes, I know the Ortiz brothers have a history of riding closers like Sandman too hard, but I think that’s more of an Irad problem than it’s a Jose one. Jose understands how to feel a horse like Sandman out. Luckily for us, Jose is the one picking up the mount on Sandman in the Derby.

There’s no reason why Sandman can't finish higher than Journalism. Give me the +150 on the Arkansas Derby winner all day long.

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