Anticipation is high today for the 151st Kentucky Derby, with Journalism poised to stake his claim as the best racehorse in training. But while few horses have dared to take him on in his West Coast stomping grounds, he hasn't scared anyone away from the $3 million Run of the Roses, with a strong field of horses entering against him at Churchill Downs.
My Kentucky Derby predictions and free betting picks for Saturday, May 3 respect the probable post-time favorite, but my best bets for the 1 1/4-mile contest focus on a viable 15-1 alternative in the Kentucky Derby odds.
Best Kentucky Derby betting sites
Where to bet on the Derby in the USA
New UsersBet $5, Get $200 in bonus bets if you win! Claim Now
Available in IL, IN, LA, MA, MD, MI, NY, OH, PA, VA, WV, WY.
CO users: Get $200 instantly when you place a $5 bet.
New UsersGet a $500 No-Sweat First Bet! Claim Now
Available in AZ, AR, CA, CO, DE, FL, IL, IN, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, MN, ND, NH, NY, NM, OH, OR, PA, RI, SD, WA, VA, WV, WY.
Bet on the Kentucky Derby in Canada
New UsersBet $5, get $150 in bonus bets! Claim Now
*Not available in Ontario.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Kentucky Derby prediction and picks: Win, Place, & Show
Best bet: Luxor Cafe (+1500 at FanDuel Racing)
Win prediction: Luxor Cafe
No. 7 Luxor Cafe (+1500 at FanDuel Racing) has come a long way since finishing fourth at first asking last August. After running a narrowly-beaten second in his next try, the son of American Pharoah broke his maiden in career start No. 3 over eventual UAE Derby winner Admire Daytona. The victory began the current four-race win streak that Luxor Cafe rides into the Kentucky Derby.
Not only has this Noriyuki Hori trainee won four straight races, but he's gradually improved his lifetime-best speed figure against some of the best runners Japan has to offer. He took both the Hyacinth Stakes and the Fukuryu Stakes, the latter of which guaranteed his spot in the Kentucky Derby post positions, to prep for the Run for the Roses.
Unlike Journalism, Luxor Cafe has taken on plenty of comers in his six-race career, facing anywhere from nine to 15 rivals in each start to date. Being able to negotiate a big field of Kentucky Derby horses is paramount to success in this race.
Place prediction: Journalism
No. 8 Journalism (+300 at FanDuel Racing) boasts the fastest speed figure of any three-year-old run this season, and it came two starts ago in the San Felipe Stakes in an upset win over Barnes. Though he regressed next time out in the Santa Anita Derby, he still beat Baeza and earned another blazing-fast figure.
Fans of this Curlin colt will point to a pedigree well-equipped to handle the demanding 1 1/4-mile distance of the Derby, and the quality over quantity of competition he has faced in California this year.
Show prediction: Chunk of Gold
No. 19 Chunk of Gold (+3000 at FanDuel Racing) is one of the more attractive Kentucky Derby long shots in the field, as this deep closer should get a fast pace to chase.
Chunk of Gold has yet to win on conventional dirt, but he has run second in both the Risen Star Stakes and the Louisiana Derby. He only needs to improve slightly to have a realistic shot at the win here, and the extra 1/16th-mile he gets here should work to his advantage.
Kentucky Derby odds
- Race: Churchill Race 12
- Post time: 6:57 p.m. ET
- TV: NBC
| Post | Horse | * |
** |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Journalism | +300 | 3-1 | +300 |
| 18 | Sovereignty | +500 | 5-1 | +500 |
| 17 | Sandman | +600 | 6-1 | +600 |
| 9 | Burnham Square | +1200 | 12-1 | +1200 |
| 21 | Baeza | +1200 | 12-1 | +1200 |
| 7 | Luxor Cafe | +1500 | 15-1 | +1500 |
| 1 | Citizen Bull | +2000 | 20-1 | +2000 |
| 12 | East Avenue | +2000 | 20-1 | +2000 |
| 13 | Publisher | +2000 | 20-1 | +2000 |
| 14 | Tiztastic | +2000 | 20-1 | +2000 |
| 2 | Neoequos | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 3 | Final Gambit | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 5 | American Promise | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 15 | Render Judgement | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 16 | Coal Battle | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
*FanDuel Racing odds available in AZ, CO, IL, IN, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NY, OH, PA, VA, WV, WY
**bet365 Kentucky Derby odds are not available in the United States
