The Kentucky Derby odds saw a major shakeup on Thursday night as Wood Memorial winner Rodriguez was forced to withdraw due to a foot bruise. No. 4 Rodriguez, who was 12-1 on the Kentucky Derby morning line, has been replaced by No. 21 Baeza, the runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby.
I'll explain the ramifications of the scratch of Rodriguez below, plus a look at the early line movement for the 2025 Run for the Roses on Saturday, May 3.
Kentucky Derby odds
Horses are listed here by their Kentucky Derby odds set by Churchill Downs' Mike Battaglia, with their Kentucky Derby post positions on the left.
| Post | Horse |  * |
 ** |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Journalism | +300 | 3-1 | +300 |
| 18 | Sovereignty | +500 | 5-1 | +500 |
| 17 | Sandman | +600 | 6-1 | +600 |
| 9 | Burnham Square | +1200 | 12-1 | +1200 |
| 21 | Baeza | +1200 | 12-1 | +1200 |
| 7 | Luxor Cafe | +1500 | 15-1 | +1500 |
| 1 | Citizen Bull | +2000 | 20-1 | +2000 |
| 10 | Grande | +2000 | 20-1 | +2000 |
| 12 | East Avenue | +2000 | 20-1 | +2000 |
| 13 | Publisher | +2000 | 20-1 | +2000 |
| 14 | Tiztastic | +2000 | 20-1 | +2000 |
| 2 | Neoequos | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 3 | Final Gambit | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 5 | American Promise | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 15 | Render Judgement | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 16 | Coal Battle | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
*FanDuel Racing odds available in AZ, CO, IL, IN, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NY, OH, PA, VA, WV, WY
**bet365 Kentucky Derby odds are not available in the United States
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Baeza's in — now can he win?
Baeza trainer John Shirreffs asked for “a gift from the gods,” to get his horse into the Kentucky Derby, and he got his wish as Rodriguez scratched due to a foot bruise on Thursday night.
Out of an abundance of caution, we have made a very tough decision to scratch our Derby horse, Rodriguez. He has a small but slightly sensitive foot bruise that will need a few more days. Therefore, we are resetting our plans and will target him for the Preakness.
— Tom Ryan (@TomRyanKY) May 1, 2025
The Wood Memorial winner will regroup and point to the Preakness Stakes two weeks from Saturday, but the future is now for Baeza, who will break from Post 20 as every runner in the field drawn outside of Rodriguez slots in one position.
Baeza, 12-1 on the Derby morning line, was a game second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby when last seen. But the mere 37.5 qualifying points he picked up for that effort put him behind quite a few Kentucky Derby horses. He needed some defections just to enter as an also-eligible, and through a stroke of luck (good or bad, depending on who you ask), Baeza is now running in Louisville on Saturday.
Kentucky Derby betting resources
- Kentucky Derby Win, Place, Show predictions
- Kentucky Derby AI predictions
- Kentucky Derby post positions
- How to bet on the Kentucky Derby
- Kentucky Oaks predictions
- Early Kentucky Oaks predictions
Jockey assignments change after Rodriguez scratch
Reigning Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat will be aboard Baeza, surrendering his mount on Neoequos. That assignment has been taken by Luis Saez.
Neoequos picked up some minor awards on the Florida road to the Derby, but added distance combined with the waters getting deeper are unlikely to help his cause. Saez has yet to win a Kentucky Derby (albeit he crossed the wire first on the DQ'd Maximum Security in 2019) but is a well-respected rider coming off a solid performance at the Keeneland meet, and he picked up four wins on Churchill's Tuesday program.
Journalism 7-2 in (very) early wagering
With about $1.35 million in the win pool, morning-line favorite Journalism is sitting as the 7-2 public choice. Sandman, the second-choice at 5-1, is the only other runner at less than 10-1. Some long shots, like Final Gambit, have taken a good chunk of the early money, dropping from 30-1 to 16-1.
However, it should be noted that over $100 million was wagered just in the win/place/show pools in last year's Kentucky Derby, and less than $2 million is sitting in those pools for the 2025 rendition as of Friday morning.
