Kentucky Derby Odds: Baeza's Camp Still Hoping for a Scratch

The Kentucky Derby odds have been set since April 26, but one lingering question about the race remains: Will Baeza draw in?

No. 21 Baeza is the lone also-eligible in the 151st Derby field, meaning he will not be able to run unless one of the other 20 horses scratches out before 9:00 a.m. ET Friday.

Let's take a look at the latest news developments ahead of the Run for the Roses on Saturday, May 3.

Kentucky Derby odds

Horses are listed here by their Kentucky Derby odds set by Churchill Downs' Mike Battaglia, with their Kentucky Derby post positions on the left.

Post	Horse	*		**
8	Journalism	+300	3-1	+300
18	Sovereignty	+500	5-1	+500
17	Sandman	+600	6-1	+600
4	Rodriguez	+1200	12-1	+1200
9	Burnham Square	+1200	12-1	+1200
7	Luxor Cafe	+1500	15-1	+1500
1	Citizen Bull	+2000	20-1	+2000
10	Grande	+2000	20-1	+2000
12	East Avenue	+2000	20-1	+2000
13	Publisher	+2000	20-1	+2000
14	Tiztastic	+2000	20-1	+2000
2	Neoequos	+3000	30-1	+3000
3	Final Gambit	+3000	30-1	+3000
5	American Promise	+3000	30-1	+3000
6	Admire Daytona	+3000	30-1	+3000
11	Flying Mohawk	+3000	30-1	+3000
15	Render Judgement	+3000	30-1	+3000
16	Coal Battle	+3000	30-1	+3000
19	Chunk of Gold	+3000	30-1	+3000
20	Owen Almighty	+3000	30-1	+3000
AE 21	Baeza	+1200	12-1	+1200

*FanDuel Racing odds available in AZ, CO, IL, IN, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NY, OH, PA, VA, WV, WY

**bet365 Kentucky Derby odds are not available in the United States

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Team Baeza plays the waiting game

Baeza came to hand a bit slower than some of the other Kentucky Derby horses in the field, taking three starts to break his maiden. Once he finally earned that diploma on February 14, trainer John Shirreffs pointed Baeza to the Santa Anita Derby, where he would face some of the most well-regarded three-year-olds in the country in Journalism, Citizen Bull, and Barnes.

While Baeza was unable to beat Journalism, the probable post-time favorite for the Kentucky Derby, he did manage to run second and pick up 37.5 qualifying points. He might have had 50 points, but the small field for the Santa Anita Derby triggered an automatic 25% reduction in point value for the race under Churchill's new rules for this year. While 50 points would have been enough to automatically qualify for the race, 37.5 proved to be just too few.

"We’re still hoping for a gift from the gods,” Shirreffs told reporters on Wednesday. “What else are you going to do?”

The Preakness Stakes is the backup plan for Baeza, who is listed at 12-1 on the Kentucky Derby morning-line. 

Kentucky Derby betting resources

• Kentucky Derby Win, Place, Show predictions
• Kentucky Derby AI predictions
• Kentucky Derby post positions
• How to bet on the Kentucky Derby
• Kentucky Oaks predictions
• Early Kentucky Oaks predictions

Baffert tips his hand with Citizen Bull

Despite removing the blinkers on Citizen Bull following a disappointing fourth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, trainer Bob Baffert will be instructing jockey Martin Garcia to “get out of [Post 1] like he just robbed a bank.”  

Due in part to the likelihood of encountering traffic trouble from the rail draw, Post 1 has not won the Kentucky Derby since 1986 (Ferdinand).

As for his other entrant, Rodriguez, Baffert simply said, “[Post] four for Rodriguez isn’t so bad. He’ll be OK coming out of there.” 

Mike Smith will be aboard Rodriguez on Saturday, looking for his third Derby win. Baffert seeks his seventh Derby score.

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