In the pandemic Kentucky Derby of 2020, eventual Horse of the Year Authentic came home at 8-1, beating 3-5 favorite Tiz the Law. But who finished third? Mr. Big News at 46-1.
Your $2 exacta paid $41.00. But if you went one step beyond with Mr. Big News in a $1 trifecta, you cashed a $1,311.80 ticket.
Welcome to the power of the trifecta, where you have to pick the Top 3 finishers in order. Since 2019, there has been at least one double-digit odds horse to find the Kentucky Derby trifecta. Often, that produces four and sometimes five-figure payouts.
I've been given a $152 budget to try and hit the trifecta in the 152nd Kentucky Derby and score a mind-bending payout. I only went over by 50 cents — call it one for good luck.
Let's get after these Kentucky Derby predictions for Saturday, May 2.
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Kentucky Derby trifecta picks
We are all-in with our key horse: No. 6 Commandment (+600 at FanDuel). He fits the profile of a front-row Derby contender: pedigree (Into Mischief), speed figures (two triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures and final fractions of 12.3-second last furlong and 36.5-second final three furlongs in his last Derby prep), form (four consecutive wins), running style (stalker), and gutsy, refuse-to-lose attitude.
No. 15 Emerging Market (+1500 at FanDuel) comes in with a light foundation of only two races. But the Louisiana Derby champion also comes in with speed (a 97 Beyer and 12/5/37.5 second final fractions). He, too, should stalk the pace, then pounce at the top of the stretch.
No. 1 Renegade (+400 at FanDuel) is more of a defensive play because he’s considered the most complete horse in the field. The speed is there (98 Beyer and 11.8/36.6-second final fractions), as is the form and pedigree (Into Mischief). So, however, is the rail starting position and lack of value.
No. 19 Golden Tempo (+3000 at FanDuel) is our designated long-shot closer, a necessary element in any winning Derby trifecta. In three of the past four years, a double-digit closer has hit the board. Golden Tempo checks the boxes of a likely closing board-hitter.
No. 7 Danon Bourbon (+2000 at FanDuel) provides tremendous value at or near this price. The Japanese invader is unbeaten at nine furlongs or farther and hasn’t had anyone finish within three lengths of him.
No. 12 Chief Wallabee (+800 at FanDuel) lacks value and foundation (three races), but hasn’t missed the board yet (1-1-1). He gave Commandment and The Puma all they could ask for in the Florida Derby (G1) and lost to Commandment by a neck in the Fountain of Youth (G2). Speed (100 Beyer, 12.6/36.9 final fractions) is there, but adding blinkers here is troublesome.
A quick note, because I know you’re asking — where’s No. 18 Further Ado (+600 at FanDuel)? The Gun Runner colt owns the field’s fastest Beyer Speed Figure (a 106), courtesy of his 11-length destruction of a weak Blue Grass Stakes field. He’s racked up three wins and a 5-for-6 record of in-the-money finishes.
There’s no doubt he could easily win this race and blow up our tickets, especially given his form, speed, pedigree, and foundation. But every year, there’s one seemingly unbeatable horse who fails to run to his odds. We’re taking a stand that Further Ado is that horse this year by shorting this glaring candidate to bounce — or regress — from his previous race.
Other long shots I’m mixing into my tickets:
- No. 8 So Happy (+1500 at FanDuel): The Santa Anita Derby winner brings pedigree questions (sprinter Runhappy is his sire) and questions about Southern California’s less-than-stellar Derby firepower this year. But he also brings value and speed (100 Beyer, 12.9/37.7) down-ticket.
- No. 11 Incredibolt (+2000 at FanDuel): We don’t like the seven-week break after his four-length Virginia Derby score. And we don’t like the soft fields he’s beaten up on in his three wins. But we do like his deep closing style, his value and final fractions (11.9/36.1), so there’s a down-ticket place for him.
$1 trifecta:
- To win: Commandment, Renegade, Emerging Market, Golden Tempo
- Second: Commandment, Renegade, Emerging Market, Golden Tempo, Chief Wallabee
- Third: Commandment, Renegade, Emerging Market, Golden Tempo, Danon Bourbon, Chief Wallabee
$1 trifecta:
- To win: Commandment, Emerging Market, Golden Tempo
- Second: Commandment, Emerging Market, Golden Tempo, Danon Bourbon, Chief Wallabee
- Third: Renegade, Emerging Market, Golden Tempo, Chief Wallabee, Incredibolt
$0.50 trifecta:
- To win: Commandment, So Happy, Chief Wallabee
- Second: Renegade, Commandment, So Happy
- Third: Renegade, So Happy, Danon Bourbon, Incredibolt, Golden Tempo
$0.50 trifecta box:
- Renegade, Commandment, Emerging Market, Golden Tempo
Total: $152.50
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Kentucky Derby betting resources
- Kentucky Derby exacta, trifecta, and superfecta picks
- Kentucky Derby odds
- Kentucky Derby horses
- Kentucky Derby post positions
- How to bet on the Kentucky Derby
- Where to bet on the Kentucky Derby
- Best Kentucky Derby betting sites
What is a trifecta?
The trifecta requires bettors to correctly predict the first three finishers on a race in exact order. The minimum wager amount is 50 cents. You can also "box" horses to finish in any order, but be prepared for the ticket price to increase as you add more selections, especially if you plan on boxing multiple horses.
How to bet on the Kentucky Derby - FAQs
Yes. There are a number of legal and authentic online racing books, which allow you to withdraw funds directly to your bank account.
There was a record $165.5 million bet on the 2019 Kentucky Derby. That was a 10 percent increase from 2018 which held the previous record of $149.9 million.
The lowest Win bet you can make is for $2. For the exotics, depending on where you play, many offer a 0.10 Superfecta wager at some betting locations.
You can bet on the upcoming Kentucky Derby as early as the day after the prior year's Derby. As the Kentucky Derby is limited to three-year-olds only, the early favorites are the horses having standout two-year-old campaigns.
You can place your wagers until the gates open. Once you hear, “and they're off" the window is officially closed. Soak up as much information in the post parade and loading the gate as you can. Knowledge is power.
