2024 U.S. Open Picks: One U.S. Open Bet We're Making Right Now

Matt Fitzpatrick is fresh off a T5 at the Memorial Tournament and is off to the U.S. Open two years removed from his lone major championship victory. We break down his chances at Pinehurst in our U.S. Open picks below.

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst
Jun 10, 2024 • 11:09 ET • 4 min read
Matt Fitzpatrick U.S. Open PGA Tour
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The third major championship of the year is here, and Pinehurst No. 2 will play host to the U.S. Open for the fourth time. With World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler winning his fifth tournament in eight events Sunday, we’re seeing long prices in the golf odds for a number of proven players in good form.

I’m backing Englishman Matt Fitzpatrick in the U.S. Open odds after his final-round 69 to climb to a T5 finish at the Memorial Tournament last week. Fitz has a U.S. Open victory on his resume and he’s often at his best when the courses are set up the toughest. Here's the one golf pick we’re making right now for Pinehurst No. 2.

Matt Fitzpatrick to win outright (+5,500)

Excellent tee play and solid putting paved the way to a strong finish at the Memorial for Matt Fitzpatrick, with him finishing fifth in true strokes gained putting and ninth in true strokes gained off-the-tee. Still, it’s his Sunday approach play that has my attention because he tied for the low round of the day by gaining 1.91 strokes on the field on approach, 1.96 from tee to green, and then paced the field on the greens with 3.98 true strokes gained putting.

He hasn’t been consistently sharp this season, but his highs have come in strong fields. In addition to the T5 at the Memorial, the Englishman finished solo fifth at THE PLAYERS and a respectable T22 at the Masters. He was second in true strokes gained putting in both those events.

I also value his consistency in the U.S. Open, which includes his T48 showing in 2014 at Pinehurst when he finished as the low amateur. He preceded his 2022 victory with a pair of T12s in 2018 and 2019 before finishing T17 last year. 

Of course, there’s also the mystery driver weight that impacted his play to an unknown degree for approximately an entire year. He removed a four-gram weight ahead of the Phoenix Open, and his driving was particularly important during his strong showing at THE PLAYERS, where he finished second in true strokes gained off-the-tee. It was again a strength at Muirfield last week, as noted.

The final piece of the pie is just how well-rounded Fitzpatrick’s game is when he’s playing his best. He had gained true strokes across the board across his past 19 measured rounds ahead of the Memorial, including being better than the field average in both driving distance and accuracy. Those numbers will all improve following last week's T5, too.

I’m also looking at a ladder approach to betting on Fitzpatrick because even though I'm encouraged by his game trending in the right direction, he's still trading at a long number and fits into the long-shot category this week.

Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick to win outright (+5,500 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick Top 10 (+450 at BetRivers, 0.25 units)
Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick Top 20 (+180 at DraftKings, 0.5 units)
Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick Top 30 (+100 at DraftKings, 1 unit)

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