We Asked ChatGPT to Predict the Outcome of the U.S. Open

History will be made this week when the 125th edition of the U.S. Open takes place at Oakmont Country Club, where fairways are tight, greens are glassy, and dreams are either forged or shattered. With stars like Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, and defending champion Bryson DeChambeau vying for glory, the stage is set for one of the most thrilling major showdowns in years.

Determining who will be the last golfer standing in this field of 156 isn't an easy task, so we turned to ChatGPT to see who it thinks will claim the coveted U.S. Open Championship Trophy. We brought everyone's favorite chatbot up to speed by feeding it the latest statistical and betting information available. That included U.S. Open odds for the entire field, the results of every PGA and LIV Golf event from the past 12 months, and a number of advanced metrics like driving distance, putts per hole, and driving accuracy.

We then provided ChatGPT with historical information from recent iterations of the U.S. Open and supplied it with essential information about the layout of Oakmont Country Club, including the infamous 488-yard Hole 1, where the men are separated from the boys.

It considered the data carefully and, within a matter of seconds, provided us with U.S. Open predictions for the Top 5 finishers and several other enticing props. The results weren’t entirely shocking, but the level of detail was impressive just the same.

🏆 2025 U.S. Open Top 5 prediction

The 2025 U.S. Open is shaping up to be a thrilling contest, featuring a field rich with talent and compelling storylines. Based on recent performances, course history, and current form, here are the contenders likely to finish at the top:

5. Shane Lowry (+4500)

Shane Lowry blends course form and odds upside. He was the 2016 runner‑up at Oakmont and appears to be in fine shape (T2 at Truist, T13 in Canada). At 45/1, the Irishman offers serious each‑way potential on a course he knows well.

4. Xander Schauffele (+2200)

Xander Schauffele offers great value at +2200 odds. His U.S. Open resume is elite — seven Top‑10s in eight starts, including six Top‑7 finishes. On Oakmont’s demanding layout, his consistency could vault him into contention without breaking the bank.

3. Bryson DeChambeau (+750)

The two-time U.S. Open winner has battled inconsistent iron play, but his major form is strong — T2 at the PGA and T5 at the Masters. Oakmont rewards length and wedge play; if Bryson's irons find precision, his superior driving gives him a tempting price relative to his talent.

2. Jon Rahm (+1200)

Jon Rahm’s regained his groove with top finishes in recent majors (T8 PGA, T15 Masters) and consistent LIV form. Betfair labels him a “banker” at 12/1, and his ball‑striking and mental toughness on Oakmont’s punishing tee‑to‑green terrain make him a smart value play.

1. Scottie Scheffler (+275)

Scottie Scheffler is red-hot, with three wins in his last four starts, including the PGA Championship and Memorial. His tee‑to‑green dominance (leads in total strokes gained, off the tee, on approach) is tailor‑made for Oakmont’s brutal layout. His odds aren't especially attractive, but his form and course fit make him a no-brainer this week.

🏌️ Method of victory

Scheffler combined surgical accuracy off the tee, smart green management, clutch recovery, and newfound putting resilience to conquer one of golf’s toughest tests, clinching victory through methodical control rather than fireworks.

Tee-to-green superiority: Scheffler brought precise drives and approach shots that kept him out of Oakmont's brutal rough and on receptive parts of greens.

Green‑zone strategy: Embracing a Ben Hogan-inspired approach, he targeted safer areas of the greens to avoid tricky pin placements, consistently giving himself manageable second putts.

Bounce‑back mojo: He excelled under pressure, hitting 76.5% of greens when needing to recover, far above his season average.

Composure in the trenches: Oakmont punished mistakes harshly, but his rock‑solid mental game and error‑free rounds wore down the field.

Putting under control: After addressing earlier putting woes with a new coach and grip, Scheffler’s short game showed improved consistency, even on fast greens and complicated holes like No. 9’s dual‑use practice surface.

🔮 U.S. Open longshot prediction

Collin Morikawa ranks among the very best at tee‑to‑green and approach play — crucial weapons on the penalized, bunker‑dense layout at Oakmont. His precise iron game could be the difference in a tournament where fairways and greens are ruthlessly defended. At this price, Morikawa offers excellent value with enough upside for casual bettors to take a small stake without breaking the bank.

Bookies have him priced attractively, and his consistency in majors makes him a smart under‑the‑radar play this week.

Pick: Collin Morikawa (+2500 at DraftKings)

U.S. Open Round 1 leader prediction

Daniel Berger profiles as a smart first-round leader candidate. He’s strong off the tee and into the greens — 12th in total strokes gained, 17th off the tee, and 23rd on approach — making him well-suited for Oakmont’s brutal opening salvo.

While his putting reportedly struggles overall, Round 1 at the U.S. Open isn’t a marathon — it’s a sprint. Berger’s ball-striking gives him the best shot to catch fire early, post a low number, and sit atop the leaderboard come Thursday evening. A small bet on him to lead after 18 holes offers high upside with minimal investment.

Pick: Daniel Berger (+7500 at DraftKings)

Best bet for Phil Mickelson

Phil Mickelson likely won’t contend over all 72 holes, but if you're looking for upside and big returns, there's real value in backing him to jump out of the gate strong.

There are three key reasons why Mickelson as first-round leader makes sense at Oakmont:

1. Oakmont’s notoriously brutal layout—with tricked-up greens and punishing rough—can level the playing field on a single day.
2. Mickelson's strategic creativity and experience allow him to seize early opportunities; he’s coming off a T4 at LIV Virginia and several Top‑6 finishes this season 
3. Analysts identify him as one of the few long shots with a legitimate chance to grab that notable first-round crown.

Pick: Phil Mickelson first round leader (+11000 at DraftKings)

⛳ Will there be a hole-in-one at the U.S. Open?

While predicting a hole-in-one at the U.S. Open is a long shot, history and odds suggest it's far from impossible.

Tour pros face roughly a 1-in‑2,500 chance of acing a Par 3 — the equivalent of about a 0.04% chance per attempt. With 156 players tackling four Par 3s on Day 1, that’s approximately a 50% chance that someone cards an ace in the opening round alone. Over the full four days, cumulative odds strongly favor at least one hole-in-one, likely around 80–90%.

So, expect at least one player to park it on a Par 3. It’s low probability per shot, but with so many swings, the law of large numbers is on our side.

Will there be a hole-in-one at the 2025 U.S. Open: Yes
Likeliest round: Round 2 (+425 at DraftKings)
Likeliest player: Si Woo Kim

ChatGPT is an impressive tool capable of producing entertaining results, but it ultimately lacks the insights and experience of a veteran handicapper. Check out our free golf picks from the experts at Covers to get the most informed analysis.

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