Golf betting continues for the second major of this turned-upside-down sports year, with a new leader through three rounds, and that player is now the favorite. The U.S. Open continues Sunday morning at Winged Foot Golf Club, just outside New York City.
The SuperBook at Westgate’s Eric Osterman talked U.S. Open betting following Saturday's third round, providing insights on sharp bets and public play on US Open odds heading into the fourth and final round..
US Open Round 4 odds and betting
Matthew Wolff hit only two fairways Saturday, yet somehow shot a superb 5-under 65 for a 5-under 205 total and a two-stroke lead over Bryson DeChambeau. As such, when The SuperBook updated its odds Saturday night, Wolff was the +175 favorite to seal the deal Sunday, with DeChambeau +450. Xander Schauffele (T4, 210) was +800, followed by Louis Oosthuizen (3rd, 209) at +1,000 and Rory McIlroy (7th, 211) at +1,200.
"We're seeing some bets on McIlroy on the updated odds. We're also seeing some money on Oosthuizen," Osterman said Saturday night. "The most money wagered on one golfer, however, is on DeChambeau. Oosthuizen is leading our updated ticket count so far."
Osterman said The SuperBook is in pretty good shape to most of the players at the top of the leaderboard.
"Of the players in contention, the book really only needs to avoid Schauffele," Osterman said. "We are about break-even on McIlroy, and everyone else would be good. Our best positions are on Hideki Matsuyama and Harris English."
Matsuyama (+1,600) and Harris (+2,500) are tied for fourth with Schauffele at 210.
On U.S. Open prop bets, Osterman said the book will need some help on the Over/Under for winning final score. The total closed at 280.5.
"So we will be rooting for a really difficult course set-up tomorrow," Osterman said.
US Open Round 3 odds and betting
Winged Foot showed its teeth Friday, and now only six players are under par among the 62 who made the cut. Patrick Reed shot even-par 70 in the second round and holds the lead at 4-under 136. Bryson Dechambeau is second at 137, followed by Rafa Cabrera Bello, Harris English and first-round leader Justin Thomas at 138.
When The SuperBook updated odds Friday night, Reed, Dechambeau and Thomas were the +450 co-favorites, followed by Xander Schauffele (T7, 140) at 9/1. And action started flowing on the adjusted prices.
"So far, we've seen several bets on Dechambeau, Reed and on Rahm +1,200," SuperBook manager Reyna Hernandez said Friday night, before noting those near the top of the leaderboard who remain liabilities to the book. "We don't want Thomas, Bello or Daniel Berger (to win). Everyone else, we do OK."
Berger isn't much of a problem yet, seven shots back in a tie for 22nd at 3-over 143. But his even-par round on a demanding Friday allowed him to jump 22 spots on the leaderboard.
On prop bets, the Yes/No on Tiger Woods to make the cut and on Jordan Spieth to make the cut both had more money on No. That opinion was easily validated as the book took a small loss on both props. Woods missed the cut by four shots at 10-over 150, while Spieth shot a whopping 11-over 81 Friday to miss by eight strokes at 14-over 154.
US Open Round 2 odds and betting
Justin Thomas shot 5-under 65 in the first round to take a one-stroke lead over Patrick Reed, Thomas Pieters and Matthew Wolff. In doing so, Thomas was made the favorite Thursday night at The SuperBook, which reopened its U.S. Open odds with JT at +450.
"We've taken some early action on updated odds. We've got a few bets on Thomas," SuperBook oddsmaker Cameron Coombs said of money on Thomas after the updated odds were released.
That said, The SuperBook does good to Thomas winning the tournament, along with pre-tournament favorite Dustin Johnson (+3,000), Rickie Fowler (+4,000) and Bryson DeChambeau (+2,000). Johnson had a rough day, shooting 3-over 73 to stand tied for 73rd. Fowler and DeChambeau are tied for 14th at 1-under 69.
Coombs pointed to four golfers the book is rooting against: Rory McIlroy (+800), Jon Rahm (+800), Tommy Fleetwood (+15000) and Phil Mickelson (+100,000). As those odds indicate, McIlroy and Rahm are very much in it, with McIlroy tied for fifth at 67 and Rahm tied for 14th at 69. On the flip side. Fleetwood is tied for 92nd at 4-over 74, and Mickelson shot a fat 9-over 79, tied for 142nd among 144 players.
Other golfers who got attention on Thursday's updated odds board included Louis Oosthuizen (T5, 67) at +3,000, Wolff (T2, 66) at +1,600 and Pieters (T2, 66) at +2,500.
On U.S. Open prop bets, Coombs said the largest liability was on the total winning score, which closed at 280.5 (Over -210).
"We have liability on the Under, so we are hoping for higher scores these next few rounds," Coombs said.
Tiger Woods and Jordan Spieth both shot 3-over 73, tied for 71st, and have some work to do Friday to ensure they make the cut. Woods is now +15,000 and Spieth +20,000.
Tiger Woods US Open Betting
Here’s something you don’t hear very often from oddsmakers:
“We are looking for people to bet on Tiger at this point,” Osterman said while discussing action at The SuperBook. “We haven't seen any big bets on Tiger, but we do have an accumulation of small tickets on him. His odds have increased from 20/1 in early July to 50/1 now.”
That puts Woods well down the list of those expected to contend for the title. But he is Tiger, so you never know.
US Open Public Betting
Those at or near the top of the odds board are of course drawing dollars. FedEx Cup champion Dustin Johnson is the +800 favorite at The SuperBook, followed by Jon Rahm at +900. Rory McIlroy has been the more popular play, at least among the casual bettors.
“We have taken some decent public action on McIlroy. His odds have fluctuated between 16/1 and 14/1. We opened him at 14/1, and that's where we are now,” Osterman said, before moving on to an always-trendy U.S. Open pick. “Phil Mickelson has also been a popular public play, probably due to his history at this course. We opened him at 100/1, got as high as 150/1, and we’re now 80/1.”
US Open Sharp Betting
The big mover near the top of the odds board is Xander Schauffele, who has received a notable amount of respected money.
“We have seen sharp action on Schauffele,” Osterman said. “His odds were as high as 25/1, and we just recently moved him down to 12/1. He is a guy that the book needs to avoid this week.”
Rahm is also taking some sharp dollars, nearly cutting in half his already short price.
“His odds were 16/1 at the highest, and he is now 9/1,” Osterman said. “We also have some liability on him, so we will be rooting against him this week.”
US Open Golf Prop Betting
Golf prop bets are always popular in the majors, and The SuperBook is seeing plenty of interest in U.S. Open props. Most notably, the Over/Under on winning score has developed into Pros vs. Joes.
“We're seeing some good two-way action on the winning score,” Osterman said. “We opened 279.5, and now we’re at 280.5 (Over -170). The sharps have been betting Over, and the public has been betting Under.
Osterman added that Rahm is getting sharp action in matchup props and on whether he'll finish top 5/10/20.
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