Masters week is finally here and in full swing. Between the practice rounds, press conferences, and Tiger-mania, Thursday's opening round is fast approaching.
From Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy to Billy Horschel and Max Homa, the Masters odds board is chock-full of the best golfers in the world, but only one will finish the week a Green Jacket winner.
At Augusta National, strong approach play and touch on and around the tricky, undulating greens have historically led to consistent success and as you've likely heard already, course knowledge and previous ANGC success provide a significant advantage.
Our outright picks highlight a favorite, a sleeper, and a long shot worth backing before this star-studded Masters field tees off on Thursday.
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2022 Masters outright picks
Picks were made on 4/5/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
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Best 2022 Masters outright picks
Among the favorites: Jon Rahm (+1,200)
No matter which way you slice it, the top of the Masters odds board is stacked.
Even among the bottom half of that first tier, you have a four-time major winner in Brooks Koepka, last year's FedEx Cup Champion in Patrick Cantlay, and Viktor Hovland, who has notched three worldwide wins inside the last six months.
But topping that board — as he's done routinely for the last 12 months — is Jon Rahm.
The Spaniard is no longer World No. 1 thanks to a scorching-hot Scottie Scheffler but No. 1 or not, getting Rahm on any outright odds board at +1,200 (FanDuel) is a steal, especially when compared to the juiced numbers he's seen in recent months, often in the 7/1 to 10/1 range.
His 2022 results have been mostly ho-hum, at least by his standards, having not truly contended since the Farmers at Torrey Pines, but as you'll hear time and time again this week, course and tournament success goes a much longer way at the Masters — and few have played Augusta National better than Rahm in recent years.
To start, Rahm's 70.3 scoring average at ANGC is the best amongst all non-winners in the field this week. He's posted eight sub-70 rounds in 20 tries, has the best cumulative score-to-par of anyone in the field across the last four years (-37), and is on a run of four straight Top-10 finishes here at the Masters, including a T5 in 2021. Need I go on?
Last year, he wasn't even sure if he was going to play. He hadn't practiced for a week-plus awaiting the birth of his firstborn, showed up at the 11th hour, and surprisingly played himself into a major championship T5 finish.
Rahm will tell you that he played freely and without expectations that week, but either way, it further proves his dominance and fit on this often-tricky property.
His talent, ability, and acumen are undeniable — especially after his historic U.S. Open victory at Torrey Pines last summer — but some have wondered why more wins haven't come for him as they have for Scheffler, Cameron Smith, or even Sam Burns.
A win this week answers those lingering questions and reminds us all that even though we stopped saying it — Rahm hadn't stopped being the best golfer in the world.
Sleeper to watch: Will Zalatoris (+3,500)
It's been a full year since Will Zalatoris nearly chased down Hideki Matsuyama in his Masters debut and if one thing's for certain — that result wasn't a fluke.
When we talk about Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Jon Rahm, or Justin Thomas as being the world's most dominant ball-strikers, that conversation must now include Zalatoris.
In the 2021-22 season, Willy Z leads the Tour in strokes gained tee-to-green, ranks second on approach, and eighth off-the-tee. He ranks ninth in greens in regulation percentage (72.07%) and has even added 12+ yards of driving distance since January.
Now, let's address the elephant in the room — and ultimately what's held him back from multiple Tour wins — his putting. It's not great. As a matter of fact, it's really bad, ranking 170th on the year, but he tweaked his putting stroke prior to the Dell Match Play two weeks ago and appeared to be gaining some real confidence during the week.
And for what it's worth, he gained +1.37 strokes per round on the greens here in 2021. Maybe it's beginner's luck, maybe it's not, but the Augusta National greens haven't made a habit of playing nice with debutants.
The obvious comparison to draw for Zalatoris entering the week is one with his good buddy, Jordan Spieth, who finished runner-up in his debut in 2014 and then claimed his first Green Jacket a year later.
Most books have Z listed in the 25/1 to 30/1 range but FanDuel still has him available at +3,500. That's serious value for a guy who's been knocking down the doors of his first tour win.
Longshot worth a look: Russell Henley (+6,600)
With such a strong field this week, there are a ton of quality names in the 50/1 to 100/1 range but fewer provide better value than Russell Henley. With a fair line hovering at or near 50/1, Henley's +6,600 (BetMGM) number is a great +EV play and something worth seriously considering before he tees off on Thursday.
The Georgia Bulldog hasn't played Augusta in three years but has finished inside the Top 15 in his last two Masters starts back in 2017 and 2018. Has made the cut in four of his five tries with a scoring average just a shade over par (72.28).
He's struggled at times off the tee in 2022 but Henley generally has a very complete game. This year, he leads the Tour in strokes gained approach (ahead of Zalatoris), ranks seventh from tee to green, and has made significant jumps in his play on and around the greens.
His best attribute — his iron and wedge play — may be the best thing to do well at Augusta and overall, Henley is a better, more consistent player than he was since he last teed it up at Augusta National. Now he returns for another shot at claiming a Green Jacket inside his home state.
2022 Masters odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks in your region. Odds are best used between rounds. When available, our fair line is updated once per hour between 6 a.m. ET and 11 p.m. ET.
