Charles Schwab Challenge Sleeper Picks and Predictions: Cauley Headlines Colonial Long Shots

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst 16+ years betting experience
Updated: May 27, 2026 , 06:00 AM ET • 4 min read

Bud Cauley and Alex Smalley check the ball-striking boxes to contend at Colonial.

PGA TOUR, Bud Cauley
Photo By - Reuters Connect. PGA Tour golfer Bud Cauley.

Texas plays host to another PGA Tour event this week with a solid field hitting Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, and we’ve got you covered with our Charles Schwab Challenge predictions.

Alex Smalley and Bud Cauley headline my favorite Charles Schwab Challenge sleeper picks included in my weekly betting card of golf picks from down the odds list.

Charles Schwab Challenge sleeper picks

Golfer BetMGM
Alex Smalley +4000
Bud Cauley +5000
Jackson Suber +12500

Picks were made on May 26 at 3:30 p.m. ET.

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Charles Schwab Challenge sleeper predictions

Sleeper pick to win: Alex Smalley
+4000 at BetMGM

The first PGA Tour win is coming for Alex Smalley, and he’s carded five consecutive Top 20s while gaining true strokes across the board.

His well-rounded game is a perfect fit for the demands of Colonial, and Smalley also sits 12th in adjusted scoring average while ranking seventh in this field in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approach for the year.

Sleeper pick to win: Bud Cauley
+5000 at BetMGM

Cruising along a solid run of eight consecutive cuts, Bud Cauley ranks sixth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and ninth on approach during the run. He’s also flashed against strong fields with his solo-seventh at the RBC Heritage and T26 at the PGA Championship.

I also value Cauley visiting Colonial for the eighth time, and in particular after carding a solo third in the 2025 Charles Schwab. He’s an excellent bet down to +4500.

Covers golf betting tools

Sleeper pick to win: Jackson Suber
+12500 at BetMGM

There’s some momentum building for Jackson Suber with his T19 at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic, followed up with a solo-fourth last week at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. Most impressively, Suber gained true strokes across the board at TPC Craig Ranch while ranking third in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approach.

This will be his second trip to Colonial, and Suber also showed off his ball-striking prowess in the Texas Children's Houston Open with ranks of 10th in tee-to-green play and sixth on approach.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Neil Parker - Covers
Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

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