Charles Schwab Challenge Sleeper Picks and Predictions: Smalley Headlines Colonial Long Shots

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst 16+ years betting experience
Updated: May 28, 2026 , 07:59 AM ET • 4 min read

Alex Smalley checks the ball-striking boxes to contend at Colonial.

PGA TOUR, Alex Smalley.
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Alex Smalley plays on the second hole during the final round of the PGA Championship golf tournament

Another week, another PGA Tour event, and Ludvig Aberg winning tops my Charles Schwab Challenge predictions ahead of today's Round 1 on Thursday, May 28.

Because Aberg headlines my weekly golf picks, I need to look further down the board for Charles Schwab Challenge sleeper picks, with Alex Smalley and Jackson Suber being my two favorite long shots to target this week.

UPDATE: Bud Cauley withdraws from the tournament on Wednesday.

Charles Schwab Challenge sleeper picks

Golfer BetMGM Bonus pick
Alex Smalley +4000 Top 20 finish (+140)
Jackson Suber +12500 Top 40 finish (+160)

Picks were made on May 26 at 3:30 p.m. ET.

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Charles Schwab Challenge sleeper predictions

Sleeper pick to win: Alex Smalley
+4000 at BetMGM

The first PGA Tour win is coming for Alex Smalley, and he’s carded five consecutive Top 20s while gaining true strokes across the board.

His well-rounded game is a perfect fit for the demands of Colonial, and Smalley also sits 12th in adjusted scoring average while ranking seventh in this field in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approach for the year.

Alternate pick: Alex Smalley to finish Top 20 (+140)

Covers golf betting tools

Sleeper pick to win: Jackson Suber
+12500 at BetMGM

There’s some momentum building for Jackson Suber with his T19 at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic, followed up with a solo-fourth last week at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. Most impressively, Suber gained true strokes across the board at TPC Craig Ranch while ranking third in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approach.

This will be his second trip to Colonial, and Suber also showed off his ball-striking prowess in the Texas Children's Houston Open with ranks of 10th in tee-to-green play and sixth on approach.

Alternate pick: Jackson Suber to finish Top 40 (+160)

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Neil Parker - Covers
Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

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