Charles Schwab Challenge Predictions, Picks & Best Bets 2026: Can Smalley Shine at Colonial?

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst 16+ years betting experience
Updated: May 25, 2026 , 01:01 PM ET • 4 min read

Your one-stop shop for Charles Schwab Challenge predictions, picks, and analysis.

PGA Tour, Alex Smalley
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Alex Smalley during the second round of the 2026 PGA Championship.

The PGA Tour remains in Texas this week for the Charles Schwab Challenge at the Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth.

Ludvig Aberg and defending champion Ben Griffin headline a solid field in the Charles Schwab Challenge odds, and our top golf picks have you covered for the week.

⛳ Charles Schwab Challenge: Key takeaways

  • Best early bet: Rickie Fowler to win (+2200) – This will be the 13th trip to Colonial for Fowler, and he enters gaining true strokes across the board through his past four events, including ranking third in tee-to-green play and carding three Top 10s during the heater
  • Best early value: Alex Smalley to win (+4000) – It’s been a tidy run for Smalley with five consecutive Top 20s while gaining true strokes across the board, including ranking fourth in the tee-to-green metric and 10th in putting
  • Colonial Country Club: A historic, recently restored Texas track renowned as "Hogan's Alley" that demands precise and strategic ball-striking through a tight, classic layout
  • Weather: Early forecasts call for warm and humid Fort Worth conditions with temperatures near 31°C (88°F), featuring mostly dry weather aside from a lingering 25% chance of scattered rain and storms heading into the weekend
  • Expected cut: The Top 65 players and ties following Round 2 will make the cut, and the cut was even par in 2025 and +2 in 2024
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📊 Charles Schwab Challenge odds

The Charles Schwab Challenge runs at Colonial Country Club from Thursday, May 28, through Sunday, May 31.

Golfer BetMGM
Ludvig Aberg +900
Russell Henley +1800
Ben Griffin +2200
Rickie Fowler +2200
Robert MacIntyre +2200
J.J. Spaun +2500
Hideki Matsuyama +3000
Akshay Bhatia +3300
Wyndham Clark +3300
Keegan Bradley +3500
Keith Mitchell +3500

Odds as of 5-25.

Check out the full Charles Schwab Challenge field.


Course breakdown: Colonial Country Club

Colonial Country Club holds the longest-running, non-major host venue on the PGA Tour, and it recently underwent a substantial $25 million restoration project led by Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner to modernize the track while still maintaining much of the original John Bredemus and Perry Maxwell layout of tight fairways and small greens.

This renovation was more infrastructure-focused, with state-of-the-art drainage, irrigation, and sub-surface green climate systems added while also stripping away decades of artificial concrete to restore the original rugged North Texas appearance.

The Par 70 is listed at 7,289 yards with the third-narrowest fairways on Tour that measure an average of just 27 yards wide. A defining stretch dubbed the “Horrible Horseshoe" features one of the toughest three-hole sequences on the PGA Tour, and the precision and strategy needed to navigate the horseshoe holes No. 3, 4, and 5 is representative of what it takes to win at Colonial: tee-to-green precision and course management over the modern trend of overpowering the property.

  • Narrow tree-lined and dogleg fairways
  • Small green surfaces
  • Driving accuracy trumps distance
  • Colonial rewards strategic course management 

Players to watch

  • Russell Henley: In addition to pacing this field in driving accuracy, Henley is a strategic tee-to-green player with a tidy short game and a T16 finish in his most recent trip to Colonial

  • Rickie Fowler: While a T60 in the PGA Championship ended a run of three consecutive Top 10s, Fowler’s game is on the rise, and his tee-to-green precision and excellent putting set him up to contend again at Colonial this week

Key stats & player profiles to target

  • True strokes gained tee-to-green
  • True strokes gained approach and green in regulation
  • Adjusted scoring average
  • Bogey avoidance
  • Driving accuracy

Players to watch

  • Ludvig Aberg: With six Top 10s across his past seven events while pacing this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and ranking sixth in adjusted scoring average for the season, it’s no surprise Aberg is the betting favorite

  • Alex Smalley: The rising star continues to knock on victory’s door and ranks 14th in adjusted scoring average and seventh in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approaches for the year

Odds movement & market notes

Ludvig Aberg (+900) opened as the betting favorite in the Charles Schwab Challenge odds at BetMGM, with Russell Henley (+1800) and defending champion Ben Griffin (+2200) next in line.

Americans Rickie Fowler and Justin Thomas are both trading at +2200 and also stand to be popular among bettors. Thomas, in particular, finished T4 at the PGA Championship and carded a T10 at the 2020 Charles Schwab.

I’m also anticipating the reigning U.S. Open winner J.J. Spaun (+2500) to see plenty of betting support after winning the Valero Texas Open for a second time in April.


How to watch the Charles Schwab Challenge & tee times

How to watch:

  • Thursday-Friday: 2-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday-Sunday: 1-3 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), 3-6 p.m. ET (CBS)

Tee times:

  • Round 1 and 2 tee times should be available on Tuesday, May 26

Charles Schwab Challenge betting FAQ

Who is the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge favorite?

Ludvig Aberg (+900) is the solo betting favorite at BetMGM.

When is the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge?

The 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge will be played from Thursday, May 28, to Sunday, May 31.

Where will the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge be played?

The 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge will be played at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas.

What are Charles Schwab Challenge FRL markets?

First Round Leader (FRL) markets center around which golfers will be in the lead following the first 18 holes of the tournament.

How do Charles Schwab Challenge matchup bets work?

When betting Charles Schwab Challenge matchups, you're selecting which golfer will score better between the two golfers listed in that specific market. There are 18-hole, single-round matchups, in addition to tournament-long, 72-hole matchups.

What is the Charles Schwab Challenge cut line?

The Charles Schwab Challenge features a cut to the Top 65 players and ties following the completion of Round 2.

Are Charles Schwab Challenge odds the same across all sportsbooks?

You'll see slight to significant variations in odds across sportsbooks for the Charles Schwab Challenge; it's always good practice to check multiple sports betting sites for the best odds.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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Neil Parker - Covers
Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

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