The PGA Tour sticks around Texas for one more event with the Charles Schwab Challenge at the classic Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth beginning today, Thursday, May 28.
Ludvig Aberg is the betting favorite in the Charles Schwab Challenge odds, and he also headlines my top golf picks for the week.
- UPDATE: Bud Cauley withdraws from the tournament on Wednesday.
⛳ Charles Schwab Challenge: Key takeaways
- Best early bet: Ludvig Aberg to win (+900) – The star has done everything but win in 2026, and Aberg stands in a class of his own statistically this week
- Best early value: Alex Smalley to win (+4000) – It’s been a tidy run for Smalley with five consecutive Top 20s while gaining true strokes across the board, including ranking fourth in the tee-to-green metric and 10th in putting
- Colonial Country Club: A historic, recently restored Texas track renowned as "Hogan's Alley" that demands precise and strategic ball-striking through a tight, classic layout
- Weather: Early forecasts call for warm and humid Fort Worth conditions with temperatures near 31°C (88°F), featuring mostly dry weather aside from a lingering 25% chance of scattered rain and storms heading into the weekend
- Expected cut: The Top 65 players and ties following Round 2 will make the cut, and the cut was even par in 2025 and +2 in 2024
📊 Charles Schwab Challenge odds
The Charles Schwab Challenge runs at Colonial Country Club from Thursday, May 28, through Sunday, May 31.
| Golfer |  |
|---|---|
| Ludvig Aberg | +800 |
| Russell Henley | +1800 |
| Justin Thomas | +2000 |
| Ben Griffin | +2200 |
| Rickie Fowler | +2200 |
| Robert MacIntyre | +2500 |
| J.J. Spaun | +2500 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +3000 |
| Akshay Bhatia | +3300 |
| Alex Smalley | +3300 |
| Keith Mitchell | +3500 |
Odds as of 5-27.
Check out the full Charles Schwab Challenge field.
Best bets card
Outright: Ludvig Aberg to win (+900) - Ranking first in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green during a seven-event stretch that's included six Top 10s should have Aberg in a class of his own this week.
Outright: Alex Smalley to win (+4000) - With ranks of 14th in adjusted scoring average and seventh in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green, Smalley contending again this week should be no surprise.
Top 40: Jackson Suber (+160) - Gained true strokes across the board at TPC Craig Ranch while ranking third in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approach to finish solo-fourth last week in the THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Course breakdown: Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club holds the longest-running, non-major host venue on the PGA Tour, and it recently underwent a substantial $25 million restoration project led by Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner to modernize the track while still maintaining much of the original John Bredemus and Perry Maxwell layout of tight fairways and small greens.
This renovation was more infrastructure-focused, with state-of-the-art drainage, irrigation, and sub-surface green climate systems added while also stripping away decades of artificial concrete to restore the original rugged North Texas appearance.
The Par 70 is listed at 7,289 yards with the third-narrowest fairways on Tour that measure an average of just 27 yards wide. A defining stretch dubbed the “Horrible Horseshoe" features one of the toughest three-hole sequences on the PGA Tour, and the precision and strategy needed to navigate the horseshoe holes No. 3, 4, and 5 is representative of what it takes to win at Colonial: tee-to-green precision and course management over the modern trend of overpowering the property.
- Narrow tree-lined and dogleg fairways
- Small green surfaces
- Driving accuracy trumps distance
- Colonial rewards strategic course management
Players to watch
- Russell Henley: In addition to pacing this field in driving accuracy, Henley is a strategic tee-to-green player with a tidy short game and a T16 finish in his most recent trip to Colonial
- Rickie Fowler: While a T60 in the PGA Championship ended a run of three consecutive Top 10s, Fowler’s game is on the rise, and his tee-to-green precision and excellent putting set him up to contend again at Colonial this week
Key stats & player profiles to target
- True strokes gained tee-to-green
- True strokes gained approach and green in regulation
- Adjusted scoring average
- Bogey avoidance
- Driving accuracy
Players to watch
- Ludvig Aberg: With six Top 10s across his past seven events while pacing this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and ranking sixth in adjusted scoring average for the season, it’s no surprise Aberg is the betting favorite
- Alex Smalley: The rising star continues to knock on victory’s door and ranks 14th in adjusted scoring average and seventh in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approaches for the year
Outright picks: winners to bet
Pick 1: Ludvig Aberg to win (+900)
With six Top 10s across his past seven events while pacing this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green, Ludvig Aberg is in a class of his own ahead of his Charles Schwab debut. He also paces this field in adjusted scoring average this season, and I'm expecting Aberg to pick up his third PGA Tour victory this week.
- Course Fit: Aberg's elite ball-striking form is perfect for Colonial's demands
- Recent Form: Elite tee-to-green play during seven-event heater
- Key Stat: Paces this field in adjusted scoring average
Risk: Aberg is making his Charles Schwab debut.
Pick 2: Alex Smalley to win (+4000)
The rising star keeps knocking on victory’s door with five straight Top 20s, and Alex Smalley ranks seventh in this field in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approaches for the year.
- Course Fit: Smalley’s well-rounded game is playing everywhere he is
- Recent Form: Five consecutive Top 20s while gaining true strokes across the board
- Key Stat: 14th in adjusted scoring average in 2026
Risk: Smalley is still chasing his first PGA Tour win.
Finishing position picks
Pick 1: Jackson Suber Top 40 (+160)
Jackson Suber gained true strokes across the board during his solo-fourth in THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson last week, including ranking third in both tee-to-green play and on approaches. He also carded a solid T19 in the ONEflight Myrtle Beach, so momentum is building.
- Course Fit: Ball-striking is clicking, and Suber made the cut here in 2025
- Recent Form: Heating up during highlighted run
- Key Stat: Three Top 40s in the past four individual events
Risk: Inconsistent putting has hurt Suber in the past.
Odds movement & market notes
While Ludvig Aberg dropped from an opening +900 to +800 and is the betting favorite in the Charles Schwab Challenge odds at BetMGM, it’s unsurprisingly Justin Thomas who has received the highest betting handle to win this week at the shop.
Thomas is coming off the solid T4 at the PGA Championship and carded a T10 in the 2020 Charles Schwab, after all.
Additionally, as expected, Rickie Fowler has also been a popular bet to win with the second-highest betting handle at BetMGM.
I was surprised to see Alex Smalley taking as much betting action as he has, though. He’s taken the second-most betting tickets to win, and the most tickets to finish Top 20. Smalley’s odds have also moved from an opening +4000 to +3300 as a result.
How to watch the Charles Schwab Challenge & tee times
How to watch:
- Thursday-Friday: 2-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
- Saturday-Sunday: 1-3 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), 3-6 p.m. ET (CBS)
Tee times:
Charles Schwab Challenge betting FAQ
Who is the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge favorite?
Ludvig Aberg (+800) is the solo betting favorite at BetMGM.
When is the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge?
The 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge will be played from Thursday, May 28, to Sunday, May 31.
Where will the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge be played?
The 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge will be played at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas.
What are Charles Schwab Challenge FRL markets?
First Round Leader (FRL) markets center around which golfers will be in the lead following the first 18 holes of the tournament.
How do Charles Schwab Challenge matchup bets work?
When betting Charles Schwab Challenge matchups, you're selecting which golfer will score better between the two golfers listed in that specific market. There are 18-hole, single-round matchups, in addition to tournament-long, 72-hole matchups.
What is the Charles Schwab Challenge cut line?
The Charles Schwab Challenge features a cut to the Top 65 players and ties following the completion of Round 2.
Are Charles Schwab Challenge odds the same across all sportsbooks?
You'll see slight to significant variations in odds across sportsbooks for the Charles Schwab Challenge; it's always good practice to check multiple sports betting sites for the best odds.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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