The final major championship of the 2026 season has arrived, and a loaded field of the best in the world is set for the British Open at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England.
Here are my British Open power rankings and golf picks ahead of Round 1 on Thursday, July 16.
Power Rankings Methodology
My power rankings are based on a thorough analysis of current form and statistical performance metrics, with a particular emphasis on scoring statistics and an all-around profile in true strokes gained metrics fit to tackle the links-style challenge awaiting at Royal Birkdale Golf Club.
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Top targets: 🎯 |
Higher on: 📈 |
Leans: ✅ |
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Course fits: ⛳ |
Lower on: 📉 |
Fades: 🛑 |
1. Rory McIlroy (+910) 🎯: The back-to-back Masters champion finished T4 at Royal Birkdale at the 2017 Open Championship, and along with his win in 2014, McIlroy has six more Top 10s in the event. Add a T7 at the Scottish Open last week, and McIlroy is positioned to take a legitimate run at his seventh major championship this week.
2. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1603) 🎯: It’s been a career year for Fitzpatrick, with his three wins backed up by an elite statistical profile consisting of ranking second in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approach while sitting third in adjusted scoring average and bogey avoidance.
3. Xander Schauffele (+2912) ✅: The 2024 Open Champion has played the weekend in 18 consecutive major championships with 10 Top 10s, and the heater also includes five straight Top 15s. Perhaps even better, Schauffele’s worst finish during the run was a respectable T28 at the 2025 PGA Championship.
4. Scottie Scheffler (+684) 📉: The statistical darling and World No. 1 is the betting favorite to win this week and win the Open Championship for the second straight year. I’m just skeptical because he hasn’t put it all together throughout his bag throughout an entire tournament since winning The American Express in January.
5. Wyndham Clark (+3791) 🎯: Among the hottest players on the planet, Clark has carded six consecutive Top 20s with a pair of victories and two more Top 5s while gaining true strokes across the board, including ranking seventh in this field in tee-to-green play and third in putting.
6. Viktor Hovland (+3233) 🎯: Coming off a win at the Travelers Championship and a T13 last week at the Scottish Open, Hovland also ranks second in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green dating back to his solo third in the RBC Canadian Open. Remember, too, Hovland has a history of stringing together wins.
7. Sam Burns (+4801) ✅: The world-class putter has seen his ball-striking spike to fifth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and second on approach across his past five events. Burns also has two Top 10s in majors this season, including his solo second at the U.S. Open.
8. Collin Morikawa (+3125) 📈: I’m encouraged by Morikawa’s solo third in the Travelers the last time he played, and there’s no questioning his tee-to-green game and ball-striking precision. Of course, Morikawa also won the 2021 Open Championship and has seven Top 20s across his past 11 majors.
9. Chris Gotterup (+3497) ✅: Already a five-time PGA Tour winner, Gotterup has also played well in majors with four straight Top 25s before finishing T43 in the 2026 U.S. Open. Gotterup, ranking seventh in adjusted scoring average and 16th in true strokes gained tee-to-green in 2026, should also have your attention.
10. Tommy Fleetwood (+1572) 📉: It would be incredible if Fleetwood finally won a major championship, and he heads to Royal Birkdale with five consecutive Top 20s while gaining true strokes across the board. I’m just anticipating another solid week and potentially a fourth Top 10 on his Open Championship resume as opposed to Fleetwood putting it all together for the win.
11. Tyrrell Hatton (+4137) ⛳: With a pair of Top 10s in major championships this year and a solid win-T7-T17 run leading into the 2026 Open, Hatton’s current form and track record in majors pop. Don’t forget, Hatton has also won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, which highlights his ability to thrive on links-style courses.
12. Robert MacIntyre (+3497) 🎯: Speaking of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, MacIntyre is the reigning champion, and he heads to Royal Birkdale on a T10-T3 run that includes ranking second in this field in true strokes gained on approach and fourth in tee-to-green play. The Scot also has three Top 10s in The Open across six championships.
13. Russell Henley (+5394) ⛳: With consecutive Top 10s in The Open and a win as recently as the Charles Schwab Challenge in May, Henley’s no-nonsense tee-to-green game suits the demands of Royal Birkdale, and in particular his elite accuracy off the tee. Just note, he’s uncharacteristically lost true strokes around the green in four straight events leading into the week.
14. Justin Rose (+4137) ⛳: This is a full-circle opportunity for Rose. He holed out on the 72nd hole at Royal Birkdale in 1998 as a 17-year-old amateur to finish T4, and now he returns to the track with a pair of runner-up finishes in this event while still chasing his first Open Championship. I expect Rose to play well, but a win is probably asking too much.
15. Jon Rahm (+2298) 🛑: After losing true strokes on approach to finish T36 at the Scottish Open last week, I’m not expecting Rahm to take a legitimate run at winning. Aside from his T2 at the PGA Championship, Rahm’s T38 at the Masters and missed cut at the U.S. Open definitely haven’t impressed, either.
16. Brian Harman (+11527) ⛳: This championship fits Harman’s game, and he’s played the weekend in five consecutive Opens, with his 2023 win accompanied by two more Top 10s. His approach play is also spiking just in time, with Harman ranking 10th in this field in true strokes gained on approach across his past two events.
17. Tom Kim (+5081) ✅: The Scottish Open win was preceded by a solo third in the U.S. Open, and Kim’s ball-striking has been on point across his past seven events, with ranks of 15th in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and third on approach. He also finished T2 at the 2023 Open, and the 24-year-old already has four PGA Tour wins and another six in Official World Golf Rankings-sanctioned events.
18. Ludvig Aberg (+3497) 📉: Carding four consecutive Top 25s in major championships warrants a look, but Aberg has also lost true strokes putting in consecutive events and hasn’t carded a Top 10 across his past five tournaments. His numbers during the slump are worrisome, too. Aberg ranks 47th in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green, 62nd in putting, and 103rd in the around-the-green metric.
19. Cameron Young (+3965) 📉: I think Young’s already peaked in 2026, and he hasn’t carded a Top 25 in any of his past four events while ranking 115th in this field in true strokes gained putting. Obviously, he’s capable of flipping the script, but this current form is a cause for pause.
20. Brooks Koepka (+8374) ⛳: It’s been four years since Koepka played well at the Open Championship, but he carded four Top 10s across a five-year stretch prior, which included a T6 at Royal Birkdale in 2017. He also has extensive experience playing links-style tracks, including carded five Top 15 finishes across his past five Alfred Dunhill Links Championships.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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