Muggsy bets second halves

$50/103 1Q Indiana ML @ Phoenix

21-35 home vs min (no brunson)

19-22 @ PHO

16-17 home vs PHO

23-27 @ PHO

18-17 home vs PHO

24-26 home vs min (no augustus, no brunson)

19-22 @ min (no augustus, no brunson)

Looks like a 50 pt quarter with clear advantage to Minnesota who can defend anyone, Tulsa will be lucky to stop a far less efficient team than the Lynx.

And one more thing. Tulsa's 'last home game before going on a road trip' first quarter stats:

5/23 vs MIN     21-35 (gm 93-94)

6/15 vs SEA*  17-24 (gm 85-79)

6/29 vs PHO   18-17 (gm 77-80) - only time they covered 1Q line**

7/12 vs WAS* 26-28 (gm 74-91)

7/17 vs SA      25-25 (gm 95-90)

8/2 vs MIN - ?
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*these two games are more representative of this angle since Seattle was 4th game of a long homestand, and Washington was 4th straight home game as well. This is exactly what Tulsa will have tonight. 4th straight home game before going away. Interestingly, both games Tulsa was a -4.0 favorite for full game 

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**The key was outrebounding Phoenix in the quarter, 14-9. Rebounding advantage in that game was 22-10 at halftime. Phoenix was in cruise control and Tulsa took advantage making it a game.

Rebounding in games vs Minnesota? 

1Q: 7-11, 1H 16-22

1Q: ?-?,   1H 13-17

1Q: 12-7, 1H 24-14 (this was the last game the Lynx played before all-star break... took a half off)

With Brunson in the lineup I give Minnesota 60% chance to outrebound Tulsa in the game (specifically the meaningful part of the game, excluding possible garbage time). IF Minnesota comes to play, they will shoot higher percentage AND outrebound Tulsa.

p.s. +11 +4 +5 +3... that's the number of extra rebounds Minnesota claimed in the FIRST HALF of their last four games. 

$55/50 1Q Minnesota TT over 21.5

Maybe not!

$290/200 2H ML Washington @ Chicago