Your line is where it should be. I bought a point - notice the -129 I've paid. I may have to take Atlanta on an alternative handicap some time tomorrow at a much juicier odds. Handicap shouldn't matter. Here's why.
Atlanta haven't had Lyttle/McCoughtry/de Souza take the floor simultaneously vs Sparks for at least 4 games over two seasons. They won both of these home games and lost both away, covering the spread 3 of 4 times.
*2012, ATL -2.0 / 162 (home) 47-28 HT > 92-59 FT
2012, ATL +8.0 / 163 (away) 44-36 HT > 79-63 FT
2013, ATL +10.0 / 161 (away) 37-34 HT > 77-73 FT
2013, ATL +2.5 / 155 (home) 48-32 HT > 92-82 FT
*this was the last of a 5+ game winning streak over Los Angeles
In these four games, Atlanta got no respect from the bookmakers (is this the infamous 'Public always bets a big market team' principle in action?)
Parker scored 11 pts/game (9, 14, 6, 16) in just over 29 min/game. Not only de Souza dominated her in the two games she was healthy enough to face Parker (33 combined pts+rebs with barely any rest in either game in 2013) but even Henry held her own as well: solid defense and moderate offensive input.
Harding played for Atlanta in 2012, and for L.A. in 2013. She's good and she'll produce, making sure this isn't a 20 point blowout... And I admit anything can happen with new coach for Atlanta and uncertain status of injuries for several players.
I'll hope for Erika to have another monster game and if Los Angeles can beat me without Candace dominating the game, so be it.
One more:
$70/50 Teaser: ATL+8.5 and SEA+17.0
(Only adding Seattle because at that number, they may play Phoenix 10 times and not trail by 15+ once). You guys liking Phoenix offense and considering backing them at -9-10 should take a look at A) who they played so far this season and B) the record of Seattle vs Phoenix last year
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