2H evening out really does make sense.. makes more sense when you guys confirm it so often i mean you guys shouldn't have to post if people would understand the concept and monitor themselves you know.. imma start trying to
its not foolproof but I hope I keep getting help from matt and others to try and get this down to a 60-70% success rate long term. I am now 17-6 on second halfs I bet.
The parlay worked- the live bet worked- sorry that this info. can't be shared in time to bet.
But you are right on Ash (you are doing well after todays medicals) If people grasp the concept we are trying to come up with they can do it on their own. Not perfect but you just need to win more than you lose because is about making money not perfection.
Quote Originally Posted by ashylarrymp:
2H evening out really does make sense.. makes more sense when you guys confirm it so often i mean you guys shouldn't have to post if people would understand the concept and monitor themselves you know.. imma start trying to
its not foolproof but I hope I keep getting help from matt and others to try and get this down to a 60-70% success rate long term. I am now 17-6 on second halfs I bet.
The parlay worked- the live bet worked- sorry that this info. can't be shared in time to bet.
But you are right on Ash (you are doing well after todays medicals) If people grasp the concept we are trying to come up with they can do it on their own. Not perfect but you just need to win more than you lose because is about making money not perfection.
As it seems now - not only this thread is not losing it's initial steam - but regains new energies each time I visit here. Unbelievable what one bright mind can achieve at the beginning attracting all the bright minds to work together for the better of all.
My hat is off for all of you guys!
On another note knowing many here are binary options funs as well: optionrally launched "optionrally tv" and is giving out 100% bonuses on initial deposits now. This is no promotion but a heads up for those who trade or intent to trade. See their video on youtube or their facebook - there's a nice lady (very sexy) promising 100% bonus as long as you mention her name while opening an account.
Great going Mavin and the Co.
As it seems now - not only this thread is not losing it's initial steam - but regains new energies each time I visit here. Unbelievable what one bright mind can achieve at the beginning attracting all the bright minds to work together for the better of all.
My hat is off for all of you guys!
On another note knowing many here are binary options funs as well: optionrally launched "optionrally tv" and is giving out 100% bonuses on initial deposits now. This is no promotion but a heads up for those who trade or intent to trade. See their video on youtube or their facebook - there's a nice lady (very sexy) promising 100% bonus as long as you mention her name while opening an account.
A great game to watch, over in the U.K its late and i should really go to bed...can't believe they were asking for 238.5 at HT and yet it only just went over :/ look forward to reading the thread again tomorrow, thanks again for everyones input
A great game to watch, over in the U.K its late and i should really go to bed...can't believe they were asking for 238.5 at HT and yet it only just went over :/ look forward to reading the thread again tomorrow, thanks again for everyones input
Quote your reasoning from earlier when picking your lines and then analyze them here after the game is over. I found that very useful.
i had to admit that since yesterday for some reason i got cautious and went againts the public and it happen i got the wrong read of spread when i went againts the public lol.. need to refocus tomorrow since tom is wed hoping for a good start.. congrats to all the winners today specially to thsoe who didnt play
Quote Originally Posted by Turbovtk:
Quote your reasoning from earlier when picking your lines and then analyze them here after the game is over. I found that very useful.
i had to admit that since yesterday for some reason i got cautious and went againts the public and it happen i got the wrong read of spread when i went againts the public lol.. need to refocus tomorrow since tom is wed hoping for a good start.. congrats to all the winners today specially to thsoe who didnt play
I actually had the bet loaded, but was distracted by the woman!
The force is strong in this one...
I learned early in my trading career mind you am 32 that distraction and lack of time to prepare is the mother of all evil in the market business. Focus Discipline and Hardwork are cornerstones.
Quote Originally Posted by Musicmatt1:
I actually had the bet loaded, but was distracted by the woman!
The force is strong in this one...
I learned early in my trading career mind you am 32 that distraction and lack of time to prepare is the mother of all evil in the market business. Focus Discipline and Hardwork are cornerstones.
A great game to watch, over in the U.K its late and i should really go to bed...can't believe they were asking for 238.5 at HT and yet it only just went over :/ look forward to reading the thread again tomorrow, thanks again for everyones input
I posted the 230 and it was fishy- not too many games go over 230-240 as long was the line was not 101-102 I was going under. I also so OKC relaxing a bit that made me jump big on Den live at +9.5 educated guess.
Quote Originally Posted by kelzar:
A great game to watch, over in the U.K its late and i should really go to bed...can't believe they were asking for 238.5 at HT and yet it only just went over :/ look forward to reading the thread again tomorrow, thanks again for everyones input
I posted the 230 and it was fishy- not too many games go over 230-240 as long was the line was not 101-102 I was going under. I also so OKC relaxing a bit that made me jump big on Den live at +9.5 educated guess.
i had to admit that since yesterday for some reason i got cautious and went againts the public and it happen i got the wrong read of spread when i went againts the public lol.. need to refocus tomorrow since tom is wed hoping for a good start.. congrats to all the winners today specially to thsoe who didnt play
Think of bets like a rabid dog you can't show fear, caution is good but if you have to be cautious do it by hedging not by looking the other way- at least that is what I do. I think maybe calls me fearless fast and furious- I think the furious part is because I get pissed when all the things I say work out that way and you have a super hero performance from non named individuals like GREEN yesterday lol Fearless because I parlay and Fast because I do my homework and just put it to play no if and or buts. at least that is my read on that name. He could mean something totally more different and totally more diminishing lol
Quote Originally Posted by jpaco:
i had to admit that since yesterday for some reason i got cautious and went againts the public and it happen i got the wrong read of spread when i went againts the public lol.. need to refocus tomorrow since tom is wed hoping for a good start.. congrats to all the winners today specially to thsoe who didnt play
Think of bets like a rabid dog you can't show fear, caution is good but if you have to be cautious do it by hedging not by looking the other way- at least that is what I do. I think maybe calls me fearless fast and furious- I think the furious part is because I get pissed when all the things I say work out that way and you have a super hero performance from non named individuals like GREEN yesterday lol Fearless because I parlay and Fast because I do my homework and just put it to play no if and or buts. at least that is my read on that name. He could mean something totally more different and totally more diminishing lol
As it seems now - not only this thread is not losing it's initial steam - but regains new energies each time I visit here. Unbelievable what one bright mind can achieve at the beginning attracting all the bright minds to work together for the better of all.
My hat is off for all of you guys!
On another note knowing many here are binary options funs as well: optionrally launched "optionrally tv" and is giving out 100% bonuses on initial deposits now. This is no promotion but a heads up for those who trade or intent to trade. See their video on youtube or their facebook - there's a nice lady (very sexy) promising 100% bonus as long as you mention her name while opening an account.
Thanks but I think that this thread is like a snowball it just keeps getting bigger but most of all aside from the usual jokes and stuff almost every posts contains valuable info. If covers doesn't shut us down I think this is just the tip at the start of the game!
Quote Originally Posted by austrian:
Great going Mavin and the Co.
As it seems now - not only this thread is not losing it's initial steam - but regains new energies each time I visit here. Unbelievable what one bright mind can achieve at the beginning attracting all the bright minds to work together for the better of all.
My hat is off for all of you guys!
On another note knowing many here are binary options funs as well: optionrally launched "optionrally tv" and is giving out 100% bonuses on initial deposits now. This is no promotion but a heads up for those who trade or intent to trade. See their video on youtube or their facebook - there's a nice lady (very sexy) promising 100% bonus as long as you mention her name while opening an account.
Thanks but I think that this thread is like a snowball it just keeps getting bigger but most of all aside from the usual jokes and stuff almost every posts contains valuable info. If covers doesn't shut us down I think this is just the tip at the start of the game!
I think we should pay more attention to team shooting percentages. I think those are the things that even out the most.
Turbo, last night you kept posting regarding Green's big night... I kept thinking, "he is an under .500 career shooter?"
I have posted this same thing before I think on 3/4/13 that there is no luck is about numbers and they even out eventually. I think I posted last night that the Celtics will not shoot 60-70% all game is just not who they are.
Lets see what Green does in his next couple of games to see how it goes.
If the Celtics where beating the Heat as a team everyone even shots and avg. points then I would not had backed them in the live or second half bets but when you have someone going off (think curry against the Knicks) in the end the Knicks got that game.
Quote Originally Posted by Musicmatt1:
I think we should pay more attention to team shooting percentages. I think those are the things that even out the most.
Turbo, last night you kept posting regarding Green's big night... I kept thinking, "he is an under .500 career shooter?"
I have posted this same thing before I think on 3/4/13 that there is no luck is about numbers and they even out eventually. I think I posted last night that the Celtics will not shoot 60-70% all game is just not who they are.
Lets see what Green does in his next couple of games to see how it goes.
If the Celtics where beating the Heat as a team everyone even shots and avg. points then I would not had backed them in the live or second half bets but when you have someone going off (think curry against the Knicks) in the end the Knicks got that game.
Think of bets like a rabid dog you can't show fear, caution is good but if you have to be cautious do it by hedging not by looking the other way- at least that is what I do. I think maybe calls me fearless fast and furious- I think the furious part is because I get pissed when all the things I say work out that way and you have a super hero performance from non named individuals like GREEN yesterday lol Fearless because I parlay and Fast because I do my homework and just put it to play no if and or buts. at least that is my read on that name. He could mean something totally more different and totally more diminishing lol
no way i showing fear lol that's y i said i got some wrong read on the line when I went against the public and my no. 1 example for that is det when i thought it was rlm but nxt thing i know it went back to the orig line but on the other hand i read the chi spread perfect ( well i won so i call it perfectly lol) but that's how i am sometimes i don't fear the top teams and going against them.. Now all of these are in my notes now like on my reasoning on choosing over on ind/orl i stated i have a feeling ind will blow orl out and it did happen but orl jst s uck big time for some reason not hitting those shots when ind wasn't even playing good def. tom is a new day so looking forward for a better outcome
Quote Originally Posted by Turbovtk:
Think of bets like a rabid dog you can't show fear, caution is good but if you have to be cautious do it by hedging not by looking the other way- at least that is what I do. I think maybe calls me fearless fast and furious- I think the furious part is because I get pissed when all the things I say work out that way and you have a super hero performance from non named individuals like GREEN yesterday lol Fearless because I parlay and Fast because I do my homework and just put it to play no if and or buts. at least that is my read on that name. He could mean something totally more different and totally more diminishing lol
no way i showing fear lol that's y i said i got some wrong read on the line when I went against the public and my no. 1 example for that is det when i thought it was rlm but nxt thing i know it went back to the orig line but on the other hand i read the chi spread perfect ( well i won so i call it perfectly lol) but that's how i am sometimes i don't fear the top teams and going against them.. Now all of these are in my notes now like on my reasoning on choosing over on ind/orl i stated i have a feeling ind will blow orl out and it did happen but orl jst s uck big time for some reason not hitting those shots when ind wasn't even playing good def. tom is a new day so looking forward for a better outcome
-Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record
-Magic are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
-Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games
-Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win
-Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points
Over 194 IND Pacers - ORL Magic
-Over is 6-1 in Magic last 7 games following a S.U. loss
-Over is 12-3-1 in Magic last 16 vs. NBA Central
-Over is 10-3-1 in Magic last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game
-Over is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record
-Over is 8-2 in Pacers last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game
-Over is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 vs. NBA Southeast
-Over is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points
best of luck to everyone tonight!
GreenGiant
I think I have posted before and might be worth a second look... at trends that are 4-0 0-4 0-5 10-0 etc because when is that lobsided something has to give. You are a stats guru and I like that, but take a second if you can to look into how often (0) or (1) to a much larger number trend fail.
Quote Originally Posted by greengiants:
greengiants 27-29
ORL Magic +11
-Magic are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games
-Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record
-Magic are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
-Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games
-Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win
-Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points
Over 194 IND Pacers - ORL Magic
-Over is 6-1 in Magic last 7 games following a S.U. loss
-Over is 12-3-1 in Magic last 16 vs. NBA Central
-Over is 10-3-1 in Magic last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game
-Over is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record
-Over is 8-2 in Pacers last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game
-Over is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 vs. NBA Southeast
-Over is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points
best of luck to everyone tonight!
GreenGiant
I think I have posted before and might be worth a second look... at trends that are 4-0 0-4 0-5 10-0 etc because when is that lobsided something has to give. You are a stats guru and I like that, but take a second if you can to look into how often (0) or (1) to a much larger number trend fail.
i almost feel like when green giant does lose a game.. i should take his awesome stats and memory bank them for the next meeting because if he lost last time LAW OF PROBABILITY states next games should revert back to his trends lol.. or at least more often than not. follow me?
i almost feel like when green giant does lose a game.. i should take his awesome stats and memory bank them for the next meeting because if he lost last time LAW OF PROBABILITY states next games should revert back to his trends lol.. or at least more often than not. follow me?
no way i showing fear lol that's y i said i got some wrong read on the line when I went against the public and my no. 1 example for that is det when i thought it was rlm but nxt thing i know it went back to the orig line but on the other hand i read the chi spread perfect ( well i won so i call it perfectly lol) but that's how i am sometimes i don't fear the top teams and going against them.. Now all of these are in my notes now like on my reasoning on choosing over on ind/orl i stated i have a feeling ind will blow orl out and it did happen but orl jst s uck big time for some reason not hitting those shots when ind wasn't even playing good def. tom is a new day so looking forward for a better outcome
Kool,
A bad team is always a bad team, one can't and should not bet on expectation that they will have a great game etc. Those will be far and few in between and to think we can predict them is not good capping. Play the averages. Get a baseline and test it. Someone said the same thing about DET yesterday. Its nice when you make a call and it goes your way but you will find in time that betting on a team hitting a GS slam would pay off well but how often does it happen.
As a young trader I learned that if someone tells you if you bought MSFT in the 80s men you would have been set, but that was not predictable (same with AAPL in the late 90s) if you think that way you are thinking gambler if you think where can I get an edge on something that happens often and over time will rake in profits then you are thinking like a trader. Another example is if someone said gold could go to 1500 an its at 100 you could make a killing and you ask how much can I invest and when will this happen you are thinking like a gambler, if you ask what are the chances It can hit that number and how many times will I be able to get opportunities like this you are thinking like a trader.
Just some of my observation. I wish we could post pics on here so you could see my TA based short on aapl first week of Oct 2012 $650 and recent cover and long at $420 on 3/4/13 with stop at $415.
Quote Originally Posted by jpaco:
no way i showing fear lol that's y i said i got some wrong read on the line when I went against the public and my no. 1 example for that is det when i thought it was rlm but nxt thing i know it went back to the orig line but on the other hand i read the chi spread perfect ( well i won so i call it perfectly lol) but that's how i am sometimes i don't fear the top teams and going against them.. Now all of these are in my notes now like on my reasoning on choosing over on ind/orl i stated i have a feeling ind will blow orl out and it did happen but orl jst s uck big time for some reason not hitting those shots when ind wasn't even playing good def. tom is a new day so looking forward for a better outcome
Kool,
A bad team is always a bad team, one can't and should not bet on expectation that they will have a great game etc. Those will be far and few in between and to think we can predict them is not good capping. Play the averages. Get a baseline and test it. Someone said the same thing about DET yesterday. Its nice when you make a call and it goes your way but you will find in time that betting on a team hitting a GS slam would pay off well but how often does it happen.
As a young trader I learned that if someone tells you if you bought MSFT in the 80s men you would have been set, but that was not predictable (same with AAPL in the late 90s) if you think that way you are thinking gambler if you think where can I get an edge on something that happens often and over time will rake in profits then you are thinking like a trader. Another example is if someone said gold could go to 1500 an its at 100 you could make a killing and you ask how much can I invest and when will this happen you are thinking like a gambler, if you ask what are the chances It can hit that number and how many times will I be able to get opportunities like this you are thinking like a trader.
Just some of my observation. I wish we could post pics on here so you could see my TA based short on aapl first week of Oct 2012 $650 and recent cover and long at $420 on 3/4/13 with stop at $415.
i almost feel like when green giant does lose a game.. i should take his awesome stats and memory bank them for the next meeting because if he lost last time LAW OF PROBABILITY states next games should revert back to his trends lol.. or at least more often than not. follow me?
I just banked it! I know what you mean. That is why I told him what I just said that when trends are lobsided something has to give.
Quote Originally Posted by ashylarrymp:
i almost feel like when green giant does lose a game.. i should take his awesome stats and memory bank them for the next meeting because if he lost last time LAW OF PROBABILITY states next games should revert back to his trends lol.. or at least more often than not. follow me?
I just banked it! I know what you mean. That is why I told him what I just said that when trends are lobsided something has to give.
I have posted this same thing before I think on 3/4/13 that there is no luck is about numbers and they even out eventually. I think I posted last night that the Celtics will not shoot 60-70% all game is just not who they are.
Lets see what Green does in his next couple of games to see how it goes.
If the Celtics where beating the Heat as a team everyone even shots and avg. points then I would not had backed them in the live or second half bets but when you have someone going off (think curry against the Knicks) in the end the Knicks got that game.
I want to clarify that I knew you weren't thinking the Celtics were going to keep rolling. My thoughts and your thoughts aligned and I made a couple great bets last night (I think you did as well) to cut the losses of our original thoughts. If that made sense, lol.
Quote Originally Posted by Turbovtk:
I have posted this same thing before I think on 3/4/13 that there is no luck is about numbers and they even out eventually. I think I posted last night that the Celtics will not shoot 60-70% all game is just not who they are.
Lets see what Green does in his next couple of games to see how it goes.
If the Celtics where beating the Heat as a team everyone even shots and avg. points then I would not had backed them in the live or second half bets but when you have someone going off (think curry against the Knicks) in the end the Knicks got that game.
I want to clarify that I knew you weren't thinking the Celtics were going to keep rolling. My thoughts and your thoughts aligned and I made a couple great bets last night (I think you did as well) to cut the losses of our original thoughts. If that made sense, lol.
i mean you guys shouldn't have to post if people would understand the concept and monitor themselves you know.. imma start trying to 
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