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Posted: #7301
Quote Originally Posted by greengiants:

greengiants 9-10

Over 193.5 ATL Hawks-PHO Suns

-Over is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 vs. NBA Pacific

-Over is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 vs. Western Conference

-Over is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400

-Over is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 Friday games

-Over is 7-2 in Hawks last 9 games playing on 1 days rest

-Over is 4-1 in Suns last 5 games following a S.U. win

-Over is 4-1 in Suns last 5 games following a ATS win

-Over is 5-2 in Suns last 7 vs. NBA Southeast

-Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Phoenix

I think the league wants to make sure it won't be another snooze-fest in Phoenix tonight because they assigned 2 very over refs to this game:

-Violet Palmer:26-12 overall O/U, 13-3 when total is set between 185 and 194.5

-Leon Wood:30-16 overall O/U, 17-6 when total is set between 185 and 194.5

the other ref is neutral:

-Rodney Mott:24-23 overall O/U, 11-11 when total is set between 185 and 194.5


 Something telling me this game has under coming. In Phx last 20 gms at hm only 5 have surpassed this total. They are not the team that used to put up 110,120 pts/gm anymore. Phx has only surpassed 90 pts 4 times in last 10 games, and have only given up only 100+ in 4 / last 10 games. Unless one is thinking that Atl can go into Phx and whoop some behind. However, also given their history, yes Atl has done poorly in Phx over the years, and yes they have had some high scoring games together, again not the same phx team we r used to seeing score 100+ steady.
 Atl as a 4-4.5 pt fav are 1-6 under. Atl is not a team that can string together many wins in a row, Only putting together 4 other streaks over the last couple years of 4 + wins (3 being 4 gm and 1 6 gm streak. Phx is one house that Atl has not had great success in, I'm thinking Atl winning streak goes down the tubes tonight with a Phx win something like 90-86 , 95-89.
 Phx last 10 gmes have not been great, however if you look at thier opp over that span they have combined record of 333-245. Atl has been doing decent, however thier last 10 opp records are 257-319. A clear difference in strenth of sched. If we are to look for the games when teams will end a winning streak, I think this is a good spot for this too happen. Considering I think Atl is 2-7 ats @ Phx last 9 games, I like this spot to have Phx come out on top with an underdog ML :)
 As my first pick I will take Phx @ + 4
 
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Posted: #7302
Quote Originally Posted by Lank66:

Hey green giant

The trends all point toward this game going over, but the one thing that you didn't address is that Phoenix is averaging 87 points a game (w/o OT) at home over the last 10 games.  Atlanta's been allowing teams to score approximately 3-4 points above their average on the road trip so far, which means Atlanta will have to score 103-105 points to make the total go over.  If the line reaches 195 I will probably have to jump on the under as Phoenix as the under at home has been very profitable this year so far.  And I will hope for a 194 .

yes, don't worry I saw that.I am not really worried about both teams putting up numbers for 2 reasons:

-Atlanta has been on a tear offensively lately, they have scored over 100pts 9 times in the last 10 games, the one time they didn't it was against miami and they put up 90pts, so I'm not really worried about their offence.

-Every time phoenix has scored 100 or more points or more they have put up at least 91 pts the next game except for 2 times, once against miami(they put up 88) and once against utah(81) but the game in utah was after 2 straight 100 pts game.And I think they will give an extra effort to not crap the bed again in front of their fans.

plus Violet and Leon being in the house, this has the makings of an over party to me.All I can say now is we shall see tonight!

 
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Posted: #7303

Quote Originally Posted by lrempel:


 Something telling me this game has under coming. In Phx last 20 gms at hm only 5 have surpassed this total. They are not the team that used to put up 110,120 pts/gm anymore. Phx has only surpassed 90 pts 4 times in last 10 games, and have only given up only 100+ in 4 / last 10 games. Unless one is thinking that Atl can go into Phx and whoop some behind. However, also given their history, yes Atl has done poorly in Phx over the years, and yes they have had some high scoring games together, again not the same phx team we r used to seeing score 100+ steady.
 Atl as a 4-4.5 pt fav are 1-6 under. Atl is not a team that can string together many wins in a row, Only putting together 4 other streaks over the last couple years of 4 + wins (3 being 4 gm and 1 6 gm streak. Phx is one house that Atl has not had great success in, I'm thinking Atl winning streak goes down the tubes tonight with a Phx win something like 90-86 , 95-89.
 Phx last 10 gmes have not been great, however if you look at thier opp over that span they have combined record of 333-245. Atl has been doing decent, however thier last 10 opp records are 257-319. A clear difference in strenth of sched. If we are to look for the games when teams will end a winning streak, I think this is a good spot for this too happen. Considering I think Atl is 2-7 ats @ Phx last 9 games, I like this spot to have Phx come out on top with an underdog ML :)
 As my first pick I will take Phx @ + 4

I don't disagree with taking phoenix at all, actually i was thinking of taking them also because I just saw RLM in that game as well.I just think it will be a high scoring game for the factors mentioned above.you're welcome to go against me, but my mind is made up.One of us will be right and if you are I will be happy for you.

 
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Posted: #7304
Quote Originally Posted by lrempel:

Hey Y'all :)
 Been on covers now since 2001 :) not around alot. Find way to many haters, guys full of garbage, talk of nothing more than nonsense. However Mavin :) I've come across your thread here, and I must say something good going on :) Actually some positive readups on the pics. ( I find sometimes with a writeup you can tell if someone knows anything or if they are a clown) Looks like some good chaps around here :)
 I think I will stick around and see if I can't put forth some insight into games ( when I can) lol. I do have a real job, however alway's striving to beat the books. Hope to have a warm welcome on here, let's team up and crush this garbage :)

 
I've had the same experience, been using covers since 2002 myself and created a profile more recently only to be able to access more info, never any intentions of posting (as you can tell by my lame handle lol) until our friend began this thread back at Xmas. 
Looking forward to your positive contribution!
And Welcome!!
 
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Posted: #7305
Quote Originally Posted by CP74:

I've had the same experience, been using covers since 2002 myself and created a profile more recently only to be able to access more info, never any intentions of posting (as you can tell by my lame handle lol) until our friend began this thread back at Xmas. 
Looking forward to your positive contribution!
And Welcome!!

Thanks Cp74 :) We are here to try and decifer this crap so we can hopefully all beat the books together right :) First decent thread I don't see a bunch of clowns posting hate. :) Look forward to working with ya :)

@ Green giants........... Why we are here man, so we can talk realistic situations through and all help each other. Try to help everyone get on the same winning page :) As I stated though, Atl has had a much easier prior 10 games opp wise, I think Phx will be able to contain them here and keep the scoring low, take Atl off the scoring binge they been on. If Phx is going to win, it's most likely going to happen from keeping Atl scoring at will. I am not set on the total as I am for Phx+4 however this is almost a game I can see being able to buy points on the total and take it down to 188 or something for +250.
 
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Posted: #7306
KrishBreezy 7-5
NY Knicks -2.5
SA Spurs -14.5
ATL Hawks -4

Didnt really have much time to study/place bets today

Nene is probable and Wall along with the wizards have been on a downtrend. I dont see them pulling off some of the upsets at home like they have previously

Sac playing 3rd game in 4 nights, SAS looking to bounce back

Phoenix playing its 3rd game in 4 nights, ATL has been covering just following the trend
 
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Posts: 355
Posted: #7307
My record this week is a perfect example of what happens when there is not enough time spent on capping games and too many distractions.
Went from 8-2 I believe to 9-8 in a hurry. Lol it's ok I have my health and its a new day!!

Gonna make this quick as I'm on my lunch break...

Memphis at Miami - the home teams are 15-5 ATS in last 20 head to head including the Heat going 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Miami. Heat are 8-4 ATS during their 12 game winning streak. Revenge spot as well as Grizzlies won 104-86 in Memphis way back in November. And as I have stated previously Miami is playing their best game right now ever including last year's playoff run.

CP74 9-8

MIA Heat -8
Over 186 MIA Heat-MEM Grizzlies

BOL crew! 
 
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Posted: #7308

VyperATS 4-6-1

IND Pacers -1 ½

NY Knicks – 2 ½

Utah Jazz -9

 

IND/TOR

Pacers are 12-16 away and Raptors are 15-15 at home, so no advantage here for Raptors. Pacers coming off a loss to Clippers 91-99 has Pacers mad and upset and ready to give raptors pay back!! After a rare home loss. They were without suspended center Roy Hibbert big man returns tonight! 91 I see fired up Pacers team tonight with big man back! I see fired up Pacers team tonight with big man back!                    PREDICTION: Pacers 107 Raptors 102

NY/WAS

Last 3 games played by these teams is 2-1 Knicks however last meeting Knicks lost on 2/6/13 106-96 Pay Back Time!!! Wizards C Nene missed Wednesday's game with a shoulder injury and his status is unclear for the Knicks game. Prior to the loss at Washington on Feb. 6, the Knicks had won the three previous meetings by an average of 24.3 points. Wizards are only 13-16 at Home!  Pay Back Time ! !    . Utah has defeated Charlotte seven straight times since falling to the Bobcats on Dec. 19, 2007.   PREDICTION: Knicks 111-95

Utah/Char

 The Bobcats are just 6-22 on the road as they play the second contest of a four-game road trip. Utah is 21-8 at home after falling to the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday for its second straight home loss. The Jazz beat the Bobcats 112-102 in Charlotte on Jan. 9 when center Al Jefferson had 26 points on 11-of-15 shooting. . Utah has defeated Charlotte seven straight times since falling to the Bobcats on Dec. 19, 2007. . PREDICTION: Jazz 110-95

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
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Posted: #7309
Oreooreo1. 2-6-1

Over 194 ATL Hawks PHO Suns

For all the reasons greengiant mentioned and Palmer and Wood being so tilted towards the over. I think they will cause the other ref Mott to join in the fun. I also believe (like Mavin mentioned the other day, even though it didn't work out I think there is some merit too it) that Phoenix ownership want to entertain their fans since their out of the playoffs!
 
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Posts: 442
Posted: #7310
I think a lot of people are on or will be on the Pacers tonight.  Rightfully so, given the way they've been playing.

I think we may want to open up a discussion on this game alone as I see a few things that make me question they will win.

  • Pacers are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Toronto.
  • Pacers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
  • Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
  • Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

No matter how well teams seem to be rolling, there are still teams that play them well or places teams tend to struggle.  Toronto seems to be that place for the Pacers.  In fact, the Raptors beat the Pacers (yes in overtime) in Indiana early this February.

I also think that considering the results of last night, the Pacers excitement from that little scuffle subsided during their day off.  I believe it became a distraction during that day off answering questions about it.  I probably will stay away from this game.  I just fear sometimes we blindly bet based on our confidence on a certain team, so I thought a discussion would be very helpful.

 
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Posted: #7311
Dallas line move to +3 from +3,5. 
I'm on Mavericks !!!
 
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Posted: #7312
Quote Originally Posted by Musicmatt1:

I think a lot of people are on or will be on the Pacers tonight.  Rightfully so, given the way they've been playing.

I think we may want to open up a discussion on this game alone as I see a few things that make me question they will win.

  • Pacers are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Toronto.
  • Pacers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
  • Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
  • Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

No matter how well teams seem to be rolling, there are still teams that play them well or places teams tend to struggle.  Toronto seems to be that place for the Pacers.  In fact, the Raptors beat the Pacers (yes in overtime) in Indiana early this February.

I also think that considering the results of last night, the Pacers excitement from that little scuffle subsided during their day off.  I believe it became a distraction during that day off answering questions about it.  I probably will stay away from this game.  I just fear sometimes we blindly bet based on our confidence on a certain team, so I thought a discussion would be very helpful.

i'm with you will probably stay away.. BUT the line movememt i think will be key in this game.. over 85%! 8 out of 10 bettors on the pacers.. if line goes up to -2.. -2.5 pacers SHOULD be ok.. if line drops in favor of the raptors.. i'll bet raptors off sheer RLM.. this game one of most popular bets so far so if your leaning Pacers i'd wait and see.
 
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Posts: 282
Posted: #7313

Jpaco 5-7

Final:

HOU rockets -8.5

spread tells me another bow out defeat from Orl majinx and hou racing for playoff spot hou wins big.

Over 213.5 SAC kings - SAN spurs

no way spurs can lockdown sac and we all know specially me how sac can score and after they let pho score and beat them at home spurs charge and sac can keep up

Over 220 OKC thunders - DEN nuggets

everyone expects ofcourse a highscoring game even spread is supporting it so il go with it since i can see more $ on okc just like when they played last time and score went wild but okc lose so hope history repeat itself lol

BOL EVERYONE

 
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Posts: 1676
Posted: #7314
I will post stuff I have noticed on the board that I am not particularly happy with which I think is leading to some of the results. This will be around 6pm as I am short on time now.

Will also post how my day went yesterday and what I got out of all 3 games.

 
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Posted: #7315
Musicmatt1  6-8-1

HOU Rockets -8.5
ATL Hawks -4
NY Knicks -2.5

HOU Rockets -8.5
Rockets coming off loss and needing win to keep separation from surging Lakers.  Magic team coming off blowout at home and think due to their current struggles, are not talented enough to redeem their humiliation.  This February, the Magic lost 10 of 13 total games by more than this line.  Can't trust any of the recent trends for the Magic, as they are obviously not nearly as talented as they were.

ATL Hawks -4
Not very helpful to state my "Suns stink" logic when betting their games so I'll go a different angle.  I stated earlier this week while placing a bet on the Hawks, that I felt they would become way more consistent now they know Smith will be there for the playoff push.  I also stated that Smith will be playing for that Max Contract as I am playing for that Max Profit!

NY Knicks -2.5
See this as a major revenge game.  Carmello is from Maryland!  In fact, I bet the Knicks the very last game they played in DC February 6.  Nene is questionable and Wall is in a slump which I believe has gained enough attention to have Wall start pressing it.
 
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Posted: #7316

67 Club


Heads2134 (10-3)

Over 96.5 1h IND Pacers-LA Clippers

KrishBreezy 6-3

LA Lakers -10

PHI 76ers +7

IND Pacers -1

Fuzzrod 4-1

MIN Timberwolves +10



1-4

 
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Posted: #7317
Ok. We started this post NBA All Star Game contest on a second half of the season  on last Tuesday and got better with each day improving our handicapping and admitting new talented contestants. So, here is the short recap of the first 5 days. Congrats to all the participants and thanks.

Tuesday  February 19 2013  (1ML +125 won as well and one ML +175 lost so not -110 lost on that one. Meaning +0.35 on top of percentage)   16-13  
1600-1430+35=205    +205 $

Wednesday  February 20 2013    23-16 
2300-1760=540         +540 $

Thursday  February 21  2013 (1 loss was ML on a + side)   11-11 
1100-1200=-100        -100 $

Friday  February 22  2013      13-13  
1300-1430=-130     -130$

Saturday  February 23  2013    19-4 
1900-440=1460     +1460$

Sunday February 24 2013      29-18 

2900-1980=920        +920$

Monday  February 25 2013  19-17

1900-1870=30       +30$

Tuesday  February 26 2013  30-22-1

3000-2420=580    +580$

Wednesday  February 27 2013  21-32-5

2170-3520=-1450      -1450$

Thursday  February 28 2013  10-26

1000-2860=-1860     -1860$

TOTAL  191-172-6   +195 $
 
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Posted: #7318
Mavin's NBA contest Friday Match 1st 2013

KJacobs203

IND pacers -1.5

MEM grizzlies +8.5

BigUnit  9-3

Over 212 SAC Kings-SA Spurs

greengiants 9-10

Over 193.5 ATL Hawks-PHO Suns

KrishBreezy 7-5

NY Knicks -2.5

SA Spurs -14.5

ATL Hawks -4

CP74 9-8

MIA Heat -8

Over 186 MIA Heat-MEM Grizzlies

VyperATS  4-6-1

IND Pacers -1 ½

NY Knicks – 2 ½

Utah Jazz -9

Oreooreo1. 2-6-1

Over 194 ATL Hawks PHO Suns

Jpaco 5-7

HOU Rockets -8.5

Over 213.5 SAC Kings - SAN Spurs

Over 220 OKC Thunders - DEN Nuggets

 
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Posted: #7319
Lank66 13-11

Under 186 IND Pacers - TOR Raptors

Under 195.5 DAL Mavericks - BRO Nets

Under 194.5 CHAR Bobcats - UTA Jazz

Going to stay away from the Atlanta - Phoenix game as there are too many variables for me to make an accurate pick as my initial lean was on the under and several of you are making strong arguments for the over.

Reasoning

Indiana gets Hibbert back tonight and Indiana historically has trouble against Toronto.  Both of these teams are defensively oriented and both played poor defense in their last games.  I expect them to play better defense tonight and play a tighter game in general as both teams also had more turnovers than usual in their previous games as well.  I have Toronto scoring 82-84 and in an expected tight game don't see Indiana scoring over 90.

Dallas' point production has dropped nightly since the allstar game.  I also think that their defense is improving.  Brooklyn should get Joe Johnson back tonight and I expect him to take a game or two to get back to form.  With the combination of a tiring Dallas squad with a renewed focus on defense and a Brooklyn team getting back in the groove with Johnson in the lineup I see this game closer to 185-190 total points. 

The Bobcats are a poor team,  Utah is also playing some bad basketball right now.  They are struggling on the offensive end and the defense has been equally questionable.  It is looking like Millsap and Jefferson won't be playing for the Jazz which will make it even tougher for them to put points on the board.  I'm having trouble finding players who can put up the numbers required to get over 195 total points. 
 
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Posted: #7320
Musicmatt1  6-8-1

HOU Rockets -8.5

ATL Hawks -4

NY Knicks -2.5
 
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Posted: #7321
Lank66 13-11

Under 186 IND Pacers - TOR Raptors

Under 195.5 DAL Mavericks - BRO Nets

Under 194.5 CHAR Bobcats - UTA Jazz

Musicmatt1  6-8-1

HOU Rockets -8.5

ATL Hawks -4

NY Knicks -2.5
 
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Posted: #7322
All the newcomers welcome. Please notice that you have to format your picks according to what you see. 
 
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Posted: #7323
67 Club   (1-4 last night. KrishyBreeze dropped out)

BigUnit  9-3

Over 212 SAC Kings-SA Spurs

Heads 10-4

Phixer 5-0

KindMidasTouch  5-2

Fuzzrod  4-2
 
Captain
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Posts: 8771
Posted: #7324

atl-4 big play

mia -8 big play

den 2 big play gl to all

 
 
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Posted: #7325
Washington Wizards have done a tremendous ATS run. The Knicks have been doing us a big favor playing at all. However -the situation has changed now and as the bettors has gotten on Washington train (heavy ones) - the Wizards run is coming to an end. The Knicks haven't covered 6 games in a row while the Wizards are 8-2 ATS in last 10 sporting 34-20 ATS record this season.. 3 weeks ago they beat the Knicks by 10 points coming back tremendously and this game they start with +2 which is now at +2.5.  The Knicks are projected to win by 3 and 4 points by two different computer systems employed by the books and LVSC. I see the Knicks winning it by more than that. The situation is reversed by now with the Knicks starting to put some wins together and Wall being walled by an opposition better than before.

Final 
NY Knicks -2.5

The Rockets will try to slow down themselves not to blow the Magic by 50 points. But the dynamics of the game will prove otherwise.

Final
HOU Rockets -8.5

Final
BRO Nets -3

I don't believe in this minor line drop on the Nets. Dallas is 33-24 ATS despite being a very bad team. The Nets have already surrendered at home to a very strong teams as Memphis and Houston and the Mavs are not the same class teams.
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