noticed RLM in the NO o/u spread opened at 185 now its down to 182.5 n also in the BK gm opened 7.5 went to 7.0 despite bk is being backed by joe public n just to ad about okc RML i was expecting it to go up from 7 now its down 5.5 remember okc lost in washington on monday in KD return home we could have an upset tonight in staples on westbrooks return home n besides faker land n its fans r very unhappy could help beating the western conference champs on national tv
Mavin wanna know what u think about this
noticed RLM in the NO o/u spread opened at 185 now its down to 182.5 n also in the BK gm opened 7.5 went to 7.0 despite bk is being backed by joe public n just to ad about okc RML i was expecting it to go up from 7 now its down 5.5 remember okc lost in washington on monday in KD return home we could have an upset tonight in staples on westbrooks return home n besides faker land n its fans r very unhappy could help beating the western conference champs on national tv
Franc3 im not so sure on the spurs over they are a high scoring team both at home and on road but memphis is d first and often how good coaches adjust to that is making their focus on d as well so be careful The only other one that looks a little quesionable is portlan coming off a big win they could have a letdown, there also in b2b and gs is due for a win they only loss b2b once this year, i definitely see them coming out hard pushing the pace
Franc3 im not so sure on the spurs over they are a high scoring team both at home and on road but memphis is d first and often how good coaches adjust to that is making their focus on d as well so be careful The only other one that looks a little quesionable is portlan coming off a big win they could have a letdown, there also in b2b and gs is due for a win they only loss b2b once this year, i definitely see them coming out hard pushing the pace
This page 119 is doing that blow up thing again.!!
WASHHEAD - Just because the line moves in the Reverse of what we think it should doesn't mean anything unless we know why. To me that means we are putting our faith in "somebody must know something" type of info., which may be true sometimes but seems a little "sketchy".
How about the fact that Brooklyn is at home and a much better team than Phoenix and is on a bit of a roll at that?
exactly!!!! everything u said is true y not go to 8 it goes down to 7 because theres been alot of money early on bk the books doesnt like to lose big if bk later wins by 7 they have the rest of the hoards pushing and any1 who played it early loses thus them screwing the public n filling there own pockects just my pov
Quote Originally Posted by Kohler:
Mavin,
This page 119 is doing that blow up thing again.!!
WASHHEAD - Just because the line moves in the Reverse of what we think it should doesn't mean anything unless we know why. To me that means we are putting our faith in "somebody must know something" type of info., which may be true sometimes but seems a little "sketchy".
How about the fact that Brooklyn is at home and a much better team than Phoenix and is on a bit of a roll at that?
exactly!!!! everything u said is true y not go to 8 it goes down to 7 because theres been alot of money early on bk the books doesnt like to lose big if bk later wins by 7 they have the rest of the hoards pushing and any1 who played it early loses thus them screwing the public n filling there own pockects just my pov
Mavin, I want to continue to thank you on a great daily read and an on-going lesson in sports betting (not gambling).
I have posted in here before stating that I am not a basketball guy(at all). That doesn't mean I have never watched it, just that I never really paid attention to it like I do hockey, baseball and football. Since discovering this thread (and because there is no hockey - yet - and no baseball - yet - and football is winding down) I have started to watch basketball. At least the games you have bet on (because I am tailing). I have to tell you, two things I noticed that I now realise have always been things that kept me away from basketball. One, is the amount of timeouts used late in games. Jesus, it is hard to watch the last two minutes of a basketball game. Two, the amount of wasted possessions that basketball produces. It is like watching hockey and seeing wingers fly down the boards, wind up from just inside the blue line and fire a puck that misses far side wide and careens right around the boards and out of the zone. And this happens in basketball more than 50% of the time.
Being a numbers guy, I thought I would look into this idea of wasting possessions. I know you are looking for continued insight into how to identify possible bets, so last night while watching the Kings somehow blow a 17 point 3rd quarter lead, I started looking at shooting percentages. What bothered me most this last week was watching teams throw up 3-pointers. I can't believe what low percentage shots these are. So, I started comparing 3 pt shooting percentages and more importantly, attempts made. How many wasted possessions does each team have during the game. I started looking for games where there is a large differential between number of three point attempts. If I found a game where that existed, look for the team that hit at or above the league average. Theory being that teams that throw up a bunch of low percentage shots (specifically more than the league average) will be giving away possessions. Then see if the team that is gaining the possessions has a high enough FG% to make the added possessions worthwhile. I am not sure how successful this will be, and I will have to rely on you to filter it or analyze it differently, but, below would be my picks for tonight (based on my hate of the 3 pointer):
OKC -5.5. The league averages for three pointers are 35.5%, 7.2 made, 20.1 attempted. OKC attempts 19.1 a game, below the league average. LAL attempts 25.1 a game, way above the league average. LAL makes 8.9 a game, meaning they can hope to accumulate roughly 27 points off 3 pointers tonight (9 X 3). OKC can hope to make 23 points off 3 pointers (7.6 x 3 = 22.8). That is a 4 point benefit to LAL. Now, look at the wasted possessions. LAL is going to waste 16 possessions, OKC is going to waste 11.5 possessions. That is a 4.7 possession advantage for OKC. OKC hits FG at 47.8%. 4.7 X 47.8% is 2 extra points. So, 4-2 is 2. The Lakers, if all goes according to plan can only hope to gain 2 points by lofting up all those 3 pointers? I don't see the value there. It assumes that the Lakers have to maintain their 35% clip on 3 pointers.
Utah +4.5. Atlanta makes 8.9 a game (26.7 pts) and Utah makes 6.5 a game (19.5 pts). This gives Atl a potential 7.2 advantage. Atl gives away 14.7 possessions a game on missed 3 pts. Utah wastes 11.1 possessions. That is a 3.6 advantage for Utah and they make 44.4% of FG. 3.6 x .444 = 1.59 extra FG made x 2 pts = 3. Atlanta, assuming both teams hit at their averages is only gaining four points from all their 3 pointers. And they are giving away -4.5 pts in the spread.
GS -7.5. I would be most worried about this one based on the big spread. But, in this case Golden State would actually come out ahead in the calculation. I won't go through the above calculations again but, GS is actually going to gain points on Portland despite attempting 3.6 less 3 pointers. Attempting less, giving away less possessions and still getting more points, that's what I am looking for.
Again, not sure if any of this data amounts to anything but, those are the three games I will be watching in addition to whatever you bet. Teams who attempt way less 3 pointers than their opponents and hit either a higher or the same percentage. Hopefully this equation leads to less wasted possessions and hence a winning team.
I like the numbers theory and am not trying to shoot a hole in it but, I think your forgetting offensive rebounds and putbacks. If a team shoots a three they might get the rebound and still score.
Quote Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:
Mavin, I want to continue to thank you on a great daily read and an on-going lesson in sports betting (not gambling).
I have posted in here before stating that I am not a basketball guy(at all). That doesn't mean I have never watched it, just that I never really paid attention to it like I do hockey, baseball and football. Since discovering this thread (and because there is no hockey - yet - and no baseball - yet - and football is winding down) I have started to watch basketball. At least the games you have bet on (because I am tailing). I have to tell you, two things I noticed that I now realise have always been things that kept me away from basketball. One, is the amount of timeouts used late in games. Jesus, it is hard to watch the last two minutes of a basketball game. Two, the amount of wasted possessions that basketball produces. It is like watching hockey and seeing wingers fly down the boards, wind up from just inside the blue line and fire a puck that misses far side wide and careens right around the boards and out of the zone. And this happens in basketball more than 50% of the time.
Being a numbers guy, I thought I would look into this idea of wasting possessions. I know you are looking for continued insight into how to identify possible bets, so last night while watching the Kings somehow blow a 17 point 3rd quarter lead, I started looking at shooting percentages. What bothered me most this last week was watching teams throw up 3-pointers. I can't believe what low percentage shots these are. So, I started comparing 3 pt shooting percentages and more importantly, attempts made. How many wasted possessions does each team have during the game. I started looking for games where there is a large differential between number of three point attempts. If I found a game where that existed, look for the team that hit at or above the league average. Theory being that teams that throw up a bunch of low percentage shots (specifically more than the league average) will be giving away possessions. Then see if the team that is gaining the possessions has a high enough FG% to make the added possessions worthwhile. I am not sure how successful this will be, and I will have to rely on you to filter it or analyze it differently, but, below would be my picks for tonight (based on my hate of the 3 pointer):
OKC -5.5. The league averages for three pointers are 35.5%, 7.2 made, 20.1 attempted. OKC attempts 19.1 a game, below the league average. LAL attempts 25.1 a game, way above the league average. LAL makes 8.9 a game, meaning they can hope to accumulate roughly 27 points off 3 pointers tonight (9 X 3). OKC can hope to make 23 points off 3 pointers (7.6 x 3 = 22.8). That is a 4 point benefit to LAL. Now, look at the wasted possessions. LAL is going to waste 16 possessions, OKC is going to waste 11.5 possessions. That is a 4.7 possession advantage for OKC. OKC hits FG at 47.8%. 4.7 X 47.8% is 2 extra points. So, 4-2 is 2. The Lakers, if all goes according to plan can only hope to gain 2 points by lofting up all those 3 pointers? I don't see the value there. It assumes that the Lakers have to maintain their 35% clip on 3 pointers.
Utah +4.5. Atlanta makes 8.9 a game (26.7 pts) and Utah makes 6.5 a game (19.5 pts). This gives Atl a potential 7.2 advantage. Atl gives away 14.7 possessions a game on missed 3 pts. Utah wastes 11.1 possessions. That is a 3.6 advantage for Utah and they make 44.4% of FG. 3.6 x .444 = 1.59 extra FG made x 2 pts = 3. Atlanta, assuming both teams hit at their averages is only gaining four points from all their 3 pointers. And they are giving away -4.5 pts in the spread.
GS -7.5. I would be most worried about this one based on the big spread. But, in this case Golden State would actually come out ahead in the calculation. I won't go through the above calculations again but, GS is actually going to gain points on Portland despite attempting 3.6 less 3 pointers. Attempting less, giving away less possessions and still getting more points, that's what I am looking for.
Again, not sure if any of this data amounts to anything but, those are the three games I will be watching in addition to whatever you bet. Teams who attempt way less 3 pointers than their opponents and hit either a higher or the same percentage. Hopefully this equation leads to less wasted possessions and hence a winning team.
I like the numbers theory and am not trying to shoot a hole in it but, I think your forgetting offensive rebounds and putbacks. If a team shoots a three they might get the rebound and still score.
Line is set at 193,
probably because average ppg of those teams:
Phoenix – 95,9
ppg
Brooklyn – 96,2
ppg
But:
Last 10 meetings
(totals):
213, 207, 227,
221, 212, 226, 200, 208, 318 !!!
The line only
once was set below 200 (195,5)
Any thoughts ?
Here are my thoughts, last night I I was on KHMERKIDS thread and posted that I thought Dallas was going to win the game straight up. I based this on Dallas being 12-1 SU against the Kings and the Kings were 1-4 against the spread against Dallas. I think trends are important indicators of future results. I was met with all sorts of people saying that the teams are different and I can't go by the trend. But I have more luck betting with trends then I do against them. Until I see the trend broken I agree with the trend. I did not listen and took Dallas( also because it was thursday and Mavins methodology indicated the day is for underdogs). I am glad you put the trend numbers up and am looking at taking that over on thgame mentioned. Thats my take.
Quote Originally Posted by Zireal:
I’ve found
something interesting...
PHX-BKN
Line is set at 193,
probably because average ppg of those teams:
Phoenix – 95,9
ppg
Brooklyn – 96,2
ppg
But:
Last 10 meetings
(totals):
213, 207, 227,
221, 212, 226, 200, 208, 318 !!!
The line only
once was set below 200 (195,5)
Any thoughts ?
Here are my thoughts, last night I I was on KHMERKIDS thread and posted that I thought Dallas was going to win the game straight up. I based this on Dallas being 12-1 SU against the Kings and the Kings were 1-4 against the spread against Dallas. I think trends are important indicators of future results. I was met with all sorts of people saying that the teams are different and I can't go by the trend. But I have more luck betting with trends then I do against them. Until I see the trend broken I agree with the trend. I did not listen and took Dallas( also because it was thursday and Mavins methodology indicated the day is for underdogs). I am glad you put the trend numbers up and am looking at taking that over on thgame mentioned. Thats my take.
the line has not moved since coming out, has been holding steady at +8, I was expecting a line a little lower around +6 given Charlotte's record against Toronto(7-1 straight up, 8-0 ATS).The road team in this matchup has a 4-1 ATS record and the underdog is 5-0 ATS, I know Toronto has been on fire of late but I still think -8 is too high, but vegas seems to like it where it is with a slight favor for the Raptors with the public(correct me if I'm wrong Mavin, your sites for verifying seem more trustworthy).Charlotte is also 3-2 ATS on the road.There are some trends supporting Toronto but I have heard to go with streaks until they end, and since Charlotte is 8-0 ATS and the underdog is 5-0:( I'll use the famous words of Frank The Tank)WE'RE GOING STREAKING!
Ok so to recap my plays for tonight:
-Chicago +4
-Phoenix +7
-Charlotte +8
hopefully my dogs bark tonight!
Record on this thread to date is 3-0-1
I'm also playing Mavin's pick of the under 191 for the bulls/knicks game.
BOL to everyone!
Locked in on Charlotte +8:
the line has not moved since coming out, has been holding steady at +8, I was expecting a line a little lower around +6 given Charlotte's record against Toronto(7-1 straight up, 8-0 ATS).The road team in this matchup has a 4-1 ATS record and the underdog is 5-0 ATS, I know Toronto has been on fire of late but I still think -8 is too high, but vegas seems to like it where it is with a slight favor for the Raptors with the public(correct me if I'm wrong Mavin, your sites for verifying seem more trustworthy).Charlotte is also 3-2 ATS on the road.There are some trends supporting Toronto but I have heard to go with streaks until they end, and since Charlotte is 8-0 ATS and the underdog is 5-0:( I'll use the famous words of Frank The Tank)WE'RE GOING STREAKING!
Ok so to recap my plays for tonight:
-Chicago +4
-Phoenix +7
-Charlotte +8
hopefully my dogs bark tonight!
Record on this thread to date is 3-0-1
I'm also playing Mavin's pick of the under 191 for the bulls/knicks game.
ok going with NO 2.5 and den -12... NO is hot beat a few good teams at home MIN no barea no love no chance. and den plays great at home n irving cant keep winning alone he's good i just think DEN is better
ok going with NO 2.5 and den -12... NO is hot beat a few good teams at home MIN no barea no love no chance. and den plays great at home n irving cant keep winning alone he's good i just think DEN is better
When the original line of NYK -5 released by LVSC was first doctored by the books to -5.5 and then adjusted to -4 - I asked myself why? The lines for that game were released late most probably checking on Smiths' condition and right away went from adjusting it up to down. So what? Sis they think he'll play at the beginning and then they knew he would not? I will get some answers for that later from our Knicks supporters as well as from the Knicks site - but in order to play the totals - I don't need that information. In the case of this game I see a fighting from the trenches for the Knicks who has been embarrassed twice by the Bulls this season. However - the point for this pick lays withing two matchups - Deng making the life hard on Nelo and Noah at Chandler going at it preventing lots of easier pick n' rolls. Add to that an absence of Felton and both JR Smith and Melo not being at their best fitness and the choker defense of the Bulls. This translates for me in Under of otherwise projected 196 points by whole 10 points. So under 191 may be a good number. Take into consideration that my totals record is nowhere near my ATS record in NBA thus treating this pick with some caution and completing it with your own research. The line movement so far has neen supportive of my notion. This capping is with JR Smith playing - without him it will even get better as the line might drop a bit more.
The total just went to 192.5 at my book.
Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:
Final:
NY KNICKS - CHICAGO Bulls Under 191 (-110) 110$
When the original line of NYK -5 released by LVSC was first doctored by the books to -5.5 and then adjusted to -4 - I asked myself why? The lines for that game were released late most probably checking on Smiths' condition and right away went from adjusting it up to down. So what? Sis they think he'll play at the beginning and then they knew he would not? I will get some answers for that later from our Knicks supporters as well as from the Knicks site - but in order to play the totals - I don't need that information. In the case of this game I see a fighting from the trenches for the Knicks who has been embarrassed twice by the Bulls this season. However - the point for this pick lays withing two matchups - Deng making the life hard on Nelo and Noah at Chandler going at it preventing lots of easier pick n' rolls. Add to that an absence of Felton and both JR Smith and Melo not being at their best fitness and the choker defense of the Bulls. This translates for me in Under of otherwise projected 196 points by whole 10 points. So under 191 may be a good number. Take into consideration that my totals record is nowhere near my ATS record in NBA thus treating this pick with some caution and completing it with your own research. The line movement so far has neen supportive of my notion. This capping is with JR Smith playing - without him it will even get better as the line might drop a bit more.
Why is the LA Flaker always gets on National TV, even with its horrible record? GSW and Portland is a much better game to watch tonight. Just my personal 2 cents.
Why is the LA Flaker always gets on National TV, even with its horrible record? GSW and Portland is a much better game to watch tonight. Just my personal 2 cents.
Well Mavin I really like the bulls/knicks under pick.....# see in spots where they are struggling right now, and they certainly have struggled against the Bulls even when they were playing well...IF**** the Knicks do start to run against the Bulls, I see the Knicks winning this game, but w/o felton and jr smith up in the air the Bulls should shut that down (of sort), I see the Knicks getting out of rhythm once again and settling on wasted possessions....when the Knicks open the floor up, they are a way different team, much like the possessions pablo prigioni was in last night....did he play spectacular no, but the way he spread the floor by getting the ball out of JR Smiths hands was huge and they actually got open shots. Carmelo will come out angry tonight but Deng is an extremely good defender and with JR Smith and Melo out of sorts I see this as a low scoring game....Noah and Boozer can be monsters on the boards and continuing possessions.....my projected average for this game will be around 184....creating a good line there..
great pick Mavin.....and btw I just cashed out 35 units....So you can say i am one happy camper today.......i can also attribute some of that to you
Well Mavin I really like the bulls/knicks under pick.....# see in spots where they are struggling right now, and they certainly have struggled against the Bulls even when they were playing well...IF**** the Knicks do start to run against the Bulls, I see the Knicks winning this game, but w/o felton and jr smith up in the air the Bulls should shut that down (of sort), I see the Knicks getting out of rhythm once again and settling on wasted possessions....when the Knicks open the floor up, they are a way different team, much like the possessions pablo prigioni was in last night....did he play spectacular no, but the way he spread the floor by getting the ball out of JR Smiths hands was huge and they actually got open shots. Carmelo will come out angry tonight but Deng is an extremely good defender and with JR Smith and Melo out of sorts I see this as a low scoring game....Noah and Boozer can be monsters on the boards and continuing possessions.....my projected average for this game will be around 184....creating a good line there..
great pick Mavin.....and btw I just cashed out 35 units....So you can say i am one happy camper today.......i can also attribute some of that to you
This page 119 is doing that blow up thing again.!!
WASHHEAD - Just because the line moves in the Reverse of what we think it should doesn't mean anything unless we know why. To me that means we are putting our faith in "somebody must know something" type of info., which may be true sometimes but seems a little "sketchy".
How about the fact that Brooklyn is at home and a much better team than Phoenix and is on a bit of a roll at that?
guys, side note, with regards to the page 119 blowing up. It seems to be an internet explorer thing, just tried it on google chrome and its fine....
Quote Originally Posted by Kohler:
Mavin,
This page 119 is doing that blow up thing again.!!
WASHHEAD - Just because the line moves in the Reverse of what we think it should doesn't mean anything unless we know why. To me that means we are putting our faith in "somebody must know something" type of info., which may be true sometimes but seems a little "sketchy".
How about the fact that Brooklyn is at home and a much better team than Phoenix and is on a bit of a roll at that?
guys, side note, with regards to the page 119 blowing up. It seems to be an internet explorer thing, just tried it on google chrome and its fine....
Phoenix/Nets under 192 - The Nets have been pointing up points as of late, but their D has really stepped up as well. The Suns are struggling to point points on the board. Line Move: 193 down to 192.
New Orleans ML -135: I have been picking spots with this team for a few weeks and think this is another good one. New Orleans has won 3 in a row and are playing well with EG back. Line moving from 2 to 2.5. I am playing ML to "buy" a few points.
Detroit +6 -120: Something is happening with this line. There may actually be the threads favorite "rlm," but I like the match-up as well. Milwaukee has played well since the coaching change, but I think Detroit plays a close game.
Looking at maybe Utah now and maybe Memphis, but the trade rumors make me look at Memphis as a no-play possibly. These may be the only 3 I play tonight.
I am going to start with a fresh record today. I was 2-0 yesterday and believe I am 9-5-1 overall in the thread, but it was too hard to figure out with the Old-Jax posts so I will start at 0-0 tonight.
Good luck
Here are three with some thoughts
Phoenix/Nets under 192 - The Nets have been pointing up points as of late, but their D has really stepped up as well. The Suns are struggling to point points on the board. Line Move: 193 down to 192.
New Orleans ML -135: I have been picking spots with this team for a few weeks and think this is another good one. New Orleans has won 3 in a row and are playing well with EG back. Line moving from 2 to 2.5. I am playing ML to "buy" a few points.
Detroit +6 -120: Something is happening with this line. There may actually be the threads favorite "rlm," but I like the match-up as well. Milwaukee has played well since the coaching change, but I think Detroit plays a close game.
Looking at maybe Utah now and maybe Memphis, but the trade rumors make me look at Memphis as a no-play possibly. These may be the only 3 I play tonight.
I am going to start with a fresh record today. I was 2-0 yesterday and believe I am 9-5-1 overall in the thread, but it was too hard to figure out with the Old-Jax posts so I will start at 0-0 tonight.
When the original line of NYK -5 released by LVSC was first doctored by the books to -5.5 and then adjusted to -4 - I asked myself why? The lines for that game were released late most probably checking on Smiths' condition and right away went from adjusting it up to down. So what? Sis they think he'll play at the beginning and then they knew he would not? I will get some answers for that later from our Knicks supporters as well as from the Knicks site - but in order to play the totals - I don't need that information. In the case of this game I see a fighting from the trenches for the Knicks who has been embarrassed twice by the Bulls this season. However - the point for this pick lays withing two matchups - Deng making the life hard on Nelo and Noah at Chandler going at it preventing lots of easier pick n' rolls. Add to that an absence of Felton and both JR Smith and Melo not being at their best fitness and the choker defense of the Bulls. This translates for me in Under of otherwise projected 196 points by whole 10 points. So under 191 may be a good number. Take into consideration that my totals record is nowhere near my ATS record in NBA thus treating this pick with some caution and completing it with your own research. The line movement so far has neen supportive of my notion. This capping is with JR Smith playing - without him it will even get better as the line might drop a bit more.
gone to 192.5 on Bet365 now Mav and Knicks now -4
Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:
Final:
NY KNICKS - CHICAGO Bulls Under 191 (-110) 110$
When the original line of NYK -5 released by LVSC was first doctored by the books to -5.5 and then adjusted to -4 - I asked myself why? The lines for that game were released late most probably checking on Smiths' condition and right away went from adjusting it up to down. So what? Sis they think he'll play at the beginning and then they knew he would not? I will get some answers for that later from our Knicks supporters as well as from the Knicks site - but in order to play the totals - I don't need that information. In the case of this game I see a fighting from the trenches for the Knicks who has been embarrassed twice by the Bulls this season. However - the point for this pick lays withing two matchups - Deng making the life hard on Nelo and Noah at Chandler going at it preventing lots of easier pick n' rolls. Add to that an absence of Felton and both JR Smith and Melo not being at their best fitness and the choker defense of the Bulls. This translates for me in Under of otherwise projected 196 points by whole 10 points. So under 191 may be a good number. Take into consideration that my totals record is nowhere near my ATS record in NBA thus treating this pick with some caution and completing it with your own research. The line movement so far has neen supportive of my notion. This capping is with JR Smith playing - without him it will even get better as the line might drop a bit more.
...i can also attribute some of that to you 
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