Posted:
#2951
Another line to track as the day goes on: Phoenix +7. Despite a strong majority of support coming in on Brooklyn, the line has dropped from 7.5.
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
Posted:
#2952
Quote Originally Posted by Thriver:
Hey Mavin, have you considered also posting your picks on Twitter like Big East so we can find your plays quickly? Would be very useful as it is very easy to get bogged down in these threads. I am busy in my days and have very little time before game time to play bets, and I imagine a lot of people are in this boat. Cheers!
Hey Mavin, have you considered also posting your picks on Twitter like Big East so we can find your plays quickly? Would be very useful as it is very easy to get bogged down in these threads. I am busy in my days and have very little time before game time to play bets, and I imagine a lot of people are in this boat. Cheers!
If I do that two things are going to happen - people will stop reading through the thread and will lose their confidence in the fact that I'm not a tout to be.
If I will feel that the spirit of this thread has been well absorbed and the message of becoming a better handicapper has gotten through to a considerable number of people here - I might start to consider to ease the ways on fellow cappers to get my picks. There are many ways to do it and I did facilitate such efforts already
Posted:
#2955
Early leans
Over SA vs MEM 189
POR +7.5 @ GS
Under OKC @ LAL 217
Under HOU @ BOS 202
NY-4 vs CHI
any thoughts i am down big this week nearing the end of my roll thanks to teasing and not straight up betting like how i won on NFL big last week i need some help to get my roll up in time to make money on NFL this weekend
Posted:
#2956
Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:
If I do that two things are going to happen - people will stop reading through the thread and will lose their confidence in the fact that I'm not a tout to be.
If I will feel that the spirit of this thread has been well absorbed and the message of becoming a better handicapper has gotten through to a considerable number of people here - I might start to consider to ease the ways on fellow cappers to get my picks. There are many ways to do it and I did facilitate such efforts already
Good point. I will stick to the thread. Enjoying it...
Posted:
#2957
Hello SportsMavin and others,
I just wanted to stop by and give my early thoughts on today's games, as lately I have not been able to post until closer to game time and until after Mavin has posted his picks.
One thing that sticks out to me on today's card so far is NOH/MIN total of 182.5. Looking at the Hornets' totals the last two games, both at home -- 183 vs. the Spurs, and 167 vs. the Rockets. Just last game, the Hornets held the Rockets, the #1 scoring team in the NBA, to 79 points, which is 27 below their season average.
So the average total for their last two games (they are just now beginning to be at full strength) is 175, and that was against two of the highest scoring teams in the league. Now they play a team that scores less than average and plays better than average defense. The way I look at it, the total should closer to 170. I also like Minnesota team total under 90 for those who are offered that play.
I like Golden State against Portland who is off a big b2b win, but so do a lot of people, so I'm not sure about this one. I do think the line should be closer to 10, but this is just a lean at this point.
Then, lastly, there is the Lakers game. I bet on the Lakers once this season, about six weeks ago, and after that I told myself to tread very carefully with that team, and actually look for spots to bet against them, as public support seemed to remain very high, even after it was evident that they stank. But what has happened recently, it seems, is that even some of the Lakers' most fervent cheerleaders from a month ago have finally jumped off the bandwagon. So, while there should still be a lot of fan money on the Lakers, the public has been heavy on OKC, and yet the line has moved from 6 to 5.5. (It seems like this game might be more in your wheelhouse Mavin, as far as line movement analysis.)
So although I hate betting on the Lakers, if there ever was a time to bet on them, I think it might be today, as public support is at an all time low as far as the past five years or so. This one is still just a lean for me as well, but I thought I would share the thoughts that I did have. BOL, everyone.
I just wanted to stop by and give my early thoughts on today's games, as lately I have not been able to post until closer to game time and until after Mavin has posted his picks.
One thing that sticks out to me on today's card so far is NOH/MIN total of 182.5. Looking at the Hornets' totals the last two games, both at home -- 183 vs. the Spurs, and 167 vs. the Rockets. Just last game, the Hornets held the Rockets, the #1 scoring team in the NBA, to 79 points, which is 27 below their season average.
So the average total for their last two games (they are just now beginning to be at full strength) is 175, and that was against two of the highest scoring teams in the league. Now they play a team that scores less than average and plays better than average defense. The way I look at it, the total should closer to 170. I also like Minnesota team total under 90 for those who are offered that play.
I like Golden State against Portland who is off a big b2b win, but so do a lot of people, so I'm not sure about this one. I do think the line should be closer to 10, but this is just a lean at this point.
Then, lastly, there is the Lakers game. I bet on the Lakers once this season, about six weeks ago, and after that I told myself to tread very carefully with that team, and actually look for spots to bet against them, as public support seemed to remain very high, even after it was evident that they stank. But what has happened recently, it seems, is that even some of the Lakers' most fervent cheerleaders from a month ago have finally jumped off the bandwagon. So, while there should still be a lot of fan money on the Lakers, the public has been heavy on OKC, and yet the line has moved from 6 to 5.5. (It seems like this game might be more in your wheelhouse Mavin, as far as line movement analysis.)
So although I hate betting on the Lakers, if there ever was a time to bet on them, I think it might be today, as public support is at an all time low as far as the past five years or so. This one is still just a lean for me as well, but I thought I would share the thoughts that I did have. BOL, everyone.
Posted:
#2960
Thanks for posting your picks. Please all who bother to post them try to have a daily updated record of your effort so the other fellow bettors can first of all take your posts seriously (picks without any record behind does not make a serious impression - you gotta agree with that
) and then have a fair description of the angles behind the pick. You can do it anyway you like to - but in order to have your picks taken seriously - you have to listen to that advise
) and then have a fair description of the angles behind the pick. You can do it anyway you like to - but in order to have your picks taken seriously - you have to listen to that advise
Posted:
#2962
Quote Originally Posted by glenndef62:
Mav, if I may add to ridibets inquiry, yes, those games would fit the reverse criteria providing we are adhering strictly to the criteria.
Mav, if I may add to ridibets inquiry, yes, those games would fit the reverse criteria providing we are adhering strictly to the criteria.
Don't know about you guys, but when I subjectivize and objective scenerio, I get in trouble.
Don't know about you guys, but when I subjectivize AN objective scenerio, I get in trouble.
Posted:
#2963
Mavin, I want to continue to thank you on a great daily read and an on-going lesson in sports betting (not gambling).
I have posted in here before stating that I am not a basketball guy(at all). That doesn't mean I have never watched it, just that I never really paid attention to it like I do hockey, baseball and football. Since discovering this thread (and because there is no hockey - yet - and no baseball - yet - and football is winding down) I have started to watch basketball. At least the games you have bet on (because I am tailing). I have to tell you, two things I noticed that I now realise have always been things that kept me away from basketball. One, is the amount of timeouts used late in games. Jesus, it is hard to watch the last two minutes of a basketball game. Two, the amount of wasted possessions that basketball produces. It is like watching hockey and seeing wingers fly down the boards, wind up from just inside the blue line and fire a puck that misses far side wide and careens right around the boards and out of the zone. And this happens in basketball more than 50% of the time.
Being a numbers guy, I thought I would look into this idea of wasting possessions. I know you are looking for continued insight into how to identify possible bets, so last night while watching the Kings somehow blow a 17 point 3rd quarter lead, I started looking at shooting percentages. What bothered me most this last week was watching teams throw up 3-pointers. I can't believe what low percentage shots these are. So, I started comparing 3 pt shooting percentages and more importantly, attempts made. How many wasted possessions does each team have during the game. I started looking for games where there is a large differential between number of three point attempts. If I found a game where that existed, look for the team that hit at or above the league average. Theory being that teams that throw up a bunch of low percentage shots (specifically more than the league average) will be giving away possessions. Then see if the team that is gaining the possessions has a high enough FG% to make the added possessions worthwhile. I am not sure how successful this will be, and I will have to rely on you to filter it or analyze it differently, but, below would be my picks for tonight (based on my hate of the 3 pointer):
OKC -5.5. The league averages for three pointers are 35.5%, 7.2 made, 20.1 attempted. OKC attempts 19.1 a game, below the league average. LAL attempts 25.1 a game, way above the league average. LAL makes 8.9 a game, meaning they can hope to accumulate roughly 27 points off 3 pointers tonight (9 X 3). OKC can hope to make 23 points off 3 pointers (7.6 x 3 = 22.8). That is a 4 point benefit to LAL. Now, look at the wasted possessions. LAL is going to waste 16 possessions, OKC is going to waste 11.5 possessions. That is a 4.7 possession advantage for OKC. OKC hits FG at 47.8%. 4.7 X 47.8% is 2 extra points. So, 4-2 is 2. The Lakers, if all goes according to plan can only hope to gain 2 points by lofting up all those 3 pointers? I don't see the value there. It assumes that the Lakers have to maintain their 35% clip on 3 pointers.
Utah +4.5. Atlanta makes 8.9 a game (26.7 pts) and Utah makes 6.5 a game (19.5 pts). This gives Atl a potential 7.2 advantage. Atl gives away 14.7 possessions a game on missed 3 pts. Utah wastes 11.1 possessions. That is a 3.6 advantage for Utah and they make 44.4% of FG. 3.6 x .444 = 1.59 extra FG made x 2 pts = 3. Atlanta, assuming both teams hit at their averages is only gaining four points from all their 3 pointers. And they are giving away -4.5 pts in the spread.
GS -7.5. I would be most worried about this one based on the big spread. But, in this case Golden State would actually come out ahead in the calculation. I won't go through the above calculations again but, GS is actually going to gain points on Portland despite attempting 3.6 less 3 pointers. Attempting less, giving away less possessions and still getting more points, that's what I am looking for.
Again, not sure if any of this data amounts to anything but, those are the three games I will be watching in addition to whatever you bet. Teams who attempt way less 3 pointers than their opponents and hit either a higher or the same percentage. Hopefully this equation leads to less wasted possessions and hence a winning team.
I have posted in here before stating that I am not a basketball guy(at all). That doesn't mean I have never watched it, just that I never really paid attention to it like I do hockey, baseball and football. Since discovering this thread (and because there is no hockey - yet - and no baseball - yet - and football is winding down) I have started to watch basketball. At least the games you have bet on (because I am tailing). I have to tell you, two things I noticed that I now realise have always been things that kept me away from basketball. One, is the amount of timeouts used late in games. Jesus, it is hard to watch the last two minutes of a basketball game. Two, the amount of wasted possessions that basketball produces. It is like watching hockey and seeing wingers fly down the boards, wind up from just inside the blue line and fire a puck that misses far side wide and careens right around the boards and out of the zone. And this happens in basketball more than 50% of the time.
Being a numbers guy, I thought I would look into this idea of wasting possessions. I know you are looking for continued insight into how to identify possible bets, so last night while watching the Kings somehow blow a 17 point 3rd quarter lead, I started looking at shooting percentages. What bothered me most this last week was watching teams throw up 3-pointers. I can't believe what low percentage shots these are. So, I started comparing 3 pt shooting percentages and more importantly, attempts made. How many wasted possessions does each team have during the game. I started looking for games where there is a large differential between number of three point attempts. If I found a game where that existed, look for the team that hit at or above the league average. Theory being that teams that throw up a bunch of low percentage shots (specifically more than the league average) will be giving away possessions. Then see if the team that is gaining the possessions has a high enough FG% to make the added possessions worthwhile. I am not sure how successful this will be, and I will have to rely on you to filter it or analyze it differently, but, below would be my picks for tonight (based on my hate of the 3 pointer):
OKC -5.5. The league averages for three pointers are 35.5%, 7.2 made, 20.1 attempted. OKC attempts 19.1 a game, below the league average. LAL attempts 25.1 a game, way above the league average. LAL makes 8.9 a game, meaning they can hope to accumulate roughly 27 points off 3 pointers tonight (9 X 3). OKC can hope to make 23 points off 3 pointers (7.6 x 3 = 22.8). That is a 4 point benefit to LAL. Now, look at the wasted possessions. LAL is going to waste 16 possessions, OKC is going to waste 11.5 possessions. That is a 4.7 possession advantage for OKC. OKC hits FG at 47.8%. 4.7 X 47.8% is 2 extra points. So, 4-2 is 2. The Lakers, if all goes according to plan can only hope to gain 2 points by lofting up all those 3 pointers? I don't see the value there. It assumes that the Lakers have to maintain their 35% clip on 3 pointers.
Utah +4.5. Atlanta makes 8.9 a game (26.7 pts) and Utah makes 6.5 a game (19.5 pts). This gives Atl a potential 7.2 advantage. Atl gives away 14.7 possessions a game on missed 3 pts. Utah wastes 11.1 possessions. That is a 3.6 advantage for Utah and they make 44.4% of FG. 3.6 x .444 = 1.59 extra FG made x 2 pts = 3. Atlanta, assuming both teams hit at their averages is only gaining four points from all their 3 pointers. And they are giving away -4.5 pts in the spread.
GS -7.5. I would be most worried about this one based on the big spread. But, in this case Golden State would actually come out ahead in the calculation. I won't go through the above calculations again but, GS is actually going to gain points on Portland despite attempting 3.6 less 3 pointers. Attempting less, giving away less possessions and still getting more points, that's what I am looking for.
Again, not sure if any of this data amounts to anything but, those are the three games I will be watching in addition to whatever you bet. Teams who attempt way less 3 pointers than their opponents and hit either a higher or the same percentage. Hopefully this equation leads to less wasted possessions and hence a winning team.
Posted:
#2964
Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:
Too early to support the Fakers through the whole game for me. OKC is a very "unstable" team and one word from Artest can get Westbrook all fired up and go berserk on the Fakers disregarding previous team planning to keep the game close.
Too early to support the Fakers through the whole game for me. OKC is a very "unstable" team and one word from Artest can get Westbrook all fired up and go berserk on the Fakers disregarding previous team planning to keep the game close.
mavin noticed RLM in the NO o/u spread opened at 185 now its down to 182.5 n also in the BK gm opened 7.5 went to 7.0 despite bk is being backed by joe public n just to ad about okc RML i was expecting it to go up from 7 now its down 5.5 remember okc lost in washington on monday in KD return home we could have an upset tonight in staples on westbrooks return home n besides faker land n its fans r very unhappy could help beating the western conference champs on national tv
Posted:
#2965
Hello all, hope you are doing well! not a bad night last night 1-0-1. knew i should of left my line at -4.5 for indianna but i got greedy and pushed my line to -5, oh well a push is better than a loss!
Strong early leans: Chicago +4 line went down from +5 while i see that over 55% of the public is on knicks.Mavin can you verify this, yesterday i turned out to be wrong on my public percentage with the indiana game.
phoenix +7 line started at 7.5 and has gone down while there seems to be around 60% of the public betting on the nets!
Posted:
#2968
Final:
NY KNICKS - CHICAGO Bulls Under 191 (-110) 110$
When the original line of NYK -5 released by LVSC was first doctored by the books to -5.5 and then adjusted to -4 - I asked myself why? The lines for that game were released late most probably checking on Smiths' condition and right away went from adjusting it up to down. So what? Sis they think he'll play at the beginning and then they knew he would not? I will get some answers for that later from our Knicks supporters as well as from the Knicks site - but in order to play the totals - I don't need that information. In the case of this game I see a fighting from the trenches for the Knicks who has been embarrassed twice by the Bulls this season. However - the point for this pick lays withing two matchups - Deng making the life hard on Nelo and Noah at Chandler going at it preventing lots of easier pick n' rolls. Add to that an absence of Felton and both JR Smith and Melo not being at their best fitness and the choker defense of the Bulls. This translates for me in Under of otherwise projected 196 points by whole 10 points. So under 191 may be a good number. Take into consideration that my totals record is nowhere near my ATS record in NBA thus treating this pick with some caution and completing it with your own research. The line movement so far has neen supportive of my notion. This capping is with JR Smith playing - without him it will even get better as the line might drop a bit more.
Posted:
#2969
my earlier post was just of leans not of picks and am not looking to gain a following just insight from the thread on thoughts of my leans
Early leans
Over SA vs MEM 189
POR +7.5 @ GS
Under OKC @ LAL 217
Under HOU @ BOS 202
NY-4 vs CHI
A lot of SA games go well over 200 and i have a hard time seeing them go so far under 200 vs any1 and MEM has been scoring a lot lately too
POR is very hot right now 3 ML wins in a row and against better teams than GS but i think they will cover a large 7.5 tonight easy
LAL and OKC 217 is high for any game but with all the stars on LAL they have to drop off in scoring sooner or later even if OKC drops 110 i dont see LAL dropping more than 107? more like 105-98
BOS fans and followers know that a celtics game with a Under anything above 200 is a great chance for the game to go under HOU has been shooting the ball badly as has BOS and i dont see either team goin over 100 tonight
NY with Melo back he will be mad and ready to prove a point vs an EC rival but NY also played well enough with out him last night vs a better team to give me confidence
MAVIN, MELOS or any fellow thread followers insights???
Posted:
#2970
Quote Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:
Mavin, I want to continue to thank you on a great daily read and an on-going lesson in sports betting (not gambling).
.....
Again, not sure if any of this data amounts to anything but, those are the three games I will be watching in addition to whatever you bet. Teams who attempt way less 3 pointers than their opponents and hit either a higher or the same percentage. Hopefully this equation leads to less wasted possessions and hence a winning team.
Mavin, I want to continue to thank you on a great daily read and an on-going lesson in sports betting (not gambling).
.....
Again, not sure if any of this data amounts to anything but, those are the three games I will be watching in addition to whatever you bet. Teams who attempt way less 3 pointers than their opponents and hit either a higher or the same percentage. Hopefully this equation leads to less wasted possessions and hence a winning team.
This is a very interesting angle, particularly from a self-described "not a basketball guy." I'm curious to watch and see what you find.
Tonight I'm taking Phoenix +7.5 and Chicago +4 (1-1 record so far). I'm playing both of these games strictly based on the line movement, or lack thereof. I'm also watching OKC/LAL. LA would seem to be the play here based on the line movement others have already pointed out, but I just don't know if I can bring myself to put money on them.
Posted:
#2971
When evaluating the game - first of all it has to be determined what sort of RLM it is and in order to do that you have to follow the line changes from the beginning comparing it to the public support if you really want to het closer to figuring it out. Why? Let's say the game opened at X -6.5 and the next time you checked hours later - it is -5 with most of the public supporting a favorite. You can't fools if the support came as the result of line dropping to -5 or despite it. Therefore you have to fools that phenom at the least 4 -5 times a day and make your judgement call only hour or two before the game to be sure that the big money is the one driving the line and you're not being mislead by your own conception. Many factors can influence the line movements but the bottom line is money. If you can be sure it is the money that is moving the line - that movement is a true RLM and you can go with money. But if a certain injury is the reason - then you have to fools it differently. Before doing all decisions in rush, I suggest you experiment dry for a week or so on each day of the week and then decide your tactics.
Posted:
#2972
im thinking about leaving that ny game alone the line jumped down a point. cambys out and there has to be something to the fact that they got beat by boston n chicago beat them twice didnt tebedoh coach with rivers before taking the bulls job too much drama too put money down on this one cards too big to focus on that game any1 have any input on my earlier post on bk and the no spread
Posted:
#2973
My record is 6-3 with +4.5 units
My plays for the day are
Hornets -2 1 unit
U Grizzlies 189 1 unit
Warriors -1/Nuggets -4.5 -150. 1.5 unit
like the Warriors after a hard loss to Memphis at home and the Blazers in b2b games, expecting a let down after beating Miami yesterday.
Nuggets have a great home record vs a depleted Cavalies team with Irving ill and maybe not playing.
Hornets are a duferent team since Gordon return, playing against the Twolves without Love, Barea and Rubio not playing well.
And i think the Griizlies will keep down the pace against the Spurs, i like how both teams match against each other, so I expect the under in this game.
Expecting a game like Hornets vs Spurs
My plays for the day are
Hornets -2 1 unit
U Grizzlies 189 1 unit
Warriors -1/Nuggets -4.5 -150. 1.5 unit
like the Warriors after a hard loss to Memphis at home and the Blazers in b2b games, expecting a let down after beating Miami yesterday.
Nuggets have a great home record vs a depleted Cavalies team with Irving ill and maybe not playing.
Hornets are a duferent team since Gordon return, playing against the Twolves without Love, Barea and Rubio not playing well.
And i think the Griizlies will keep down the pace against the Spurs, i like how both teams match against each other, so I expect the under in this game.
Expecting a game like Hornets vs Spurs
Posted:
#2974
Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:
When evaluating the game - first of all it has to be determined what sort of RLM it is and in order to do that you have to follow the line changes from the beginning comparing it to the public support if you really want to het closer to figuring it out. Why? Let's say the game opened at X -6.5 and the next time you checked hours later - it is -5 with most of the public supporting a favorite. You can't fools if the support came as the result of line dropping to -5 or despite it. Therefore you have to fools that phenom at the least 4 -5 times a day and make your judgement call only hour or two before the game to be sure that the big money is the one driving the line and you're not being mislead by your own conception. Many factors can influence the line movements but the bottom line is money. If you can be sure it is the money that is moving the line - that movement is a true RLM and you can go with money. But if a certain injury is the reason - then you have to fools it differently. Before doing all decisions in rush, I suggest you experiment dry for a week or so on each day of the week and then decide your tactics.
When evaluating the game - first of all it has to be determined what sort of RLM it is and in order to do that you have to follow the line changes from the beginning comparing it to the public support if you really want to het closer to figuring it out. Why? Let's say the game opened at X -6.5 and the next time you checked hours later - it is -5 with most of the public supporting a favorite. You can't fools if the support came as the result of line dropping to -5 or despite it. Therefore you have to fools that phenom at the least 4 -5 times a day and make your judgement call only hour or two before the game to be sure that the big money is the one driving the line and you're not being mislead by your own conception. Many factors can influence the line movements but the bottom line is money. If you can be sure it is the money that is moving the line - that movement is a true RLM and you can go with money. But if a certain injury is the reason - then you have to fools it differently. Before doing all decisions in rush, I suggest you experiment dry for a week or so on each day of the week and then decide your tactics.
It all goes back to the beginning -- posts #5 and #10 of this thread.
Thanks for the reminder. 
Posted:
#2975
Mavin,
This page 119 is doing that blow up thing again.!!
WASHHEAD - Just because the line moves in the Reverse of what we think it should doesn't mean anything unless we know why. To me that means we are putting our faith in "somebody must know something" type of info., which may be true sometimes but seems a little "sketchy".
How about the fact that Brooklyn is at home and a much better team than Phoenix and is on a bit of a roll at that?
Hot Forum Topics
