Posted:
#2926
pilotbo
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
Posted:
#2928
Hey Mavin, have you considered also posting your picks on Twitter like Big East so we can find your plays quickly? Would be very useful as it is very easy to get bogged down in these threads. I am busy in my days and have very little time before game time to play bets, and I imagine a lot of people are in this boat. Cheers! 
Posted:
#2929
Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:
Although I've been following the Covers.com for years - I was always as an observer, trying to get the info and use it for my own benefit. There is almost a year now that I didn't have to deposit any funds into my betting accounts and managed even to keep withdrawing my winnings month after month for some time. And those were no accidental string of events that led to it, but the result of thorough study of the markets, trends and the right usage of all the vast info displayed daily here.
Although I've been following the Covers.com for years - I was always as an observer, trying to get the info and use it for my own benefit. There is almost a year now that I didn't have to deposit any funds into my betting accounts and managed even to keep withdrawing my winnings month after month for some time. And those were no accidental string of events that led to it, but the result of thorough study of the markets, trends and the right usage of all the vast info displayed daily here.
I want to share that knowledge with you for free and no hidden agendas whatsoever. And yes, please remember that the Money Management is the key to create the Steady Monthly Income month in and month out.
So, let me gather up all my notes and begin.
Mavin,
I congratulate you on an excellent thread and your effort over the past couple of weeks has been very much appreciated by me and many others. I also commend you on your positive attitude and the way way you deal with the negative posts!
With that said, and being a follower reading every post from day 1, I believe this thread has sidetracked from the original intention, which i believe was to try and help, educate others on the most common do's and dont's by the average sports better and in turn hopefully help many new players avoid common mistakes, which are not usually recongnized untill many mistakes and many dollars later..
I consider myself a seasoned vet, playing daily for 10+ years now, but still only consider this a part time job, and know everyday is another learning experience, which i make notes of both good and bad, and even after that long i still know i have lots to learn..
As this thread has ballooned to over 2500 reply's, the thing i've noticed that is somewhat dissapointing which i know you have no control over, is the fact that certain posters (who you are supposedly trying to help) are seemingly not learning a single thing and are using this 200K viewed thread to post their 20+ plays in one betting day, then coming back after the results are in and saying they played a 3 or 4 game parlay outside of the 20+ singles they already played and "surprising" it hit to get them 10 to 1 or whatever to turn a plus day.. i've seen this multiple times now, which i personally can overlook, but knowing the original intention of this thread, it annoys me knowing that a lot of your hard work and good intentions are being overshadowed by posters making "joe public" mistakes on probably 30% of these post's and not paying attention to a thing you are trying to teach..
Again, I commend you for what over all is a great thread, I just wish there was more situational, reverse line movement, stay away from game, great spot for a bet,... talk then all of this team A is the best and team B is the worst therefore team A should blow out team B... that's just nonsense, but OTHER then FROM YOU a lot of the posts on here with picks are just that..
Sorry to vent a little, but I like you, just want to learn and help others learn, so hopefully at the end of the day we can all be just a little more educated and most importantly a consistently bigger bank roll!!
Keep doing what you're doing tho, I truely enjoy all of YOUR post's!
Posted:
#2930
Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:
Today NBA; 2-2 -20$
Overall Today: 2-2 -20$
Overall NFL: 6-3 +28$
Overall Parlay: 3-3 +108$
Overall NBA: 30-21-1 +570$ (21-9 ATS, 9-12 Totals)
Overall NCAAF: 1-1 -120$
Overall: 40-28-1 +586$
Started with 2,000$ Now: 2,586$
Mavin,
first off thx for all the info and write ups u share with us all here in the covers forum.
I just want to give my opinion regarding your betting method. You are now at 30-21 overall in the NBA (59%) and since you started the thread you are averaging an hit ratio off 58 to 62%, which is amazing. But after 51 games and with that amazing hit ratio you are "just" 5.7 units up.
In my opinion and for my experience high hit ratios (above 58%) are hard to keep during an entire season and even less for several seasons. So, wouldn't be more profitable to bet every now and then 2 or more units in those plays you are really confident?
I'm just asking this bcs I've only seen you bet a 2 unit play in the first bet you made here.
Once again thx for sharing your work
Posted:
#2931
Mav and the Crew:
For my part I'll track two of the hottest angles currently in the NBA.
Also, will contribute if an old reliable angle "pops up".
Big card today
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Means testing: JAN 10 to present
The “Key Player Out Team Covers” Theory (1-0)
Jan-10-2012…Melo’s out…Knicks cover at +5.5
This line was 5 or lower for a lot of the day. For theory testing will use closing #s, although a valid argument could be made to use opening.
The Vaunted Reverse Theory (1-0) (VRT)
Jan-10-2012….MIA a public like all day. (at PORT) This game saw some reverse movement which brought the line down. However, a late surge brought the line back up. Lesson: A reverse can be defined as “A team, who nobody likes, yet their line moves the wrong way..even if later it goes the right way”
Posted:
#2932
Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:
There are many companies that offer you to trade with them but one is standing above others and for a good reason. OptionRally has few obvious advantages over other trading platforms. IMO the most important one is its trading genuinity. What does that mean? When I trade with OptionRally I know that the trade actaully happens and I can influence that trade with my input while most of the others if not all are simply playing against you. So, if I am playing some commodity or a stock - I know that if I and my friends put together 5000$ each on some stock to drive it up - that will happen for real and we actually are influencing the "line" - that stock and bettering our chances to profit. I tried it with other companies and nothing really happens - it stays dead as the money I invest they do not automatically buy with this the stock or a commomdity I invested and thus the price does not change. With OptionRally that change happens almost immediately after my input as theyb actually already own a market share of that stock/commodity etc. (of course that input must be substantial and that is why I recommend to gather up together few friends on skype or a phone and pound the same direction at the same time at the OptionRally - they can't do nothing about it and they don't care as they really invest your money and live on the juice just like bet365, pinnacle and everybody major on the betting market while the small books actually absorb the losses or win against you). OptionRally is living off the juice and could not care less if you win. They actually want you to win so you come back and play more. Don't forget that their juice is fat enough to make money when you win and they actually don't make money when you lose.
Another thing that goes without saying that they invest in platform development and are always most inventive in providing trading platforms for most advanced communication tools as Ipad mobile platform etc. Those guys are for real and that is what makes them so much better than anyone else in the market. They're like Bet365 of the options trading world.
I remember you mentioned that if you lived in the US you can't trade in these markets. via the message feature I spoke with one of the reps at the site you recommended. They told me I would have to open a foreign account.
Unfortunately their isn't a search feature for the forums so I can't find your post. But I also remember you warning against doing that.
If possible could you please explain this further or do you think that if I used the company you recommended this wouldn't be a problem.
Far as the games I relaxed today. Early look for tomorrow.
Hornet's, Nets.
Posted:
#2933
He is underrolled already.
2k bank and he is betting 100$ this is a recipe for desaster if you are not very selective.
Now you want him to bet 200$ on a single play? Uff...
But ok he is trying to hit a high ROI and a high win %, it might be just fine to play a bit more risky with 100$ stakes, but 200$ is overdoing it.
As long as he keeps going near the 57%+ mark it will be just fine.
If you ask me I would not be betting more than 35$ on spreads/totals with this bankroll, but alright I have a different approach to this and have way more plays than Marvin during the course of a week and vary my stake a lot depending on the odds I take and the win % I expect.
2k bank and he is betting 100$ this is a recipe for desaster if you are not very selective.
Now you want him to bet 200$ on a single play? Uff...
But ok he is trying to hit a high ROI and a high win %, it might be just fine to play a bit more risky with 100$ stakes, but 200$ is overdoing it.
As long as he keeps going near the 57%+ mark it will be just fine.
If you ask me I would not be betting more than 35$ on spreads/totals with this bankroll, but alright I have a different approach to this and have way more plays than Marvin during the course of a week and vary my stake a lot depending on the odds I take and the win % I expect.
Posted:
#2938
Quote Originally Posted by glenndef62:
Mav and the Crew:
the key player out theory wasnt that perfect last nightMav and the Crew:
For my part I'll track two of the hottest angles currently in the NBA.
Also, will contribute if an old reliable angle "pops up".
Big card today
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Means testing: JAN 10 to present
The “Key Player Out Team Covers” Theory (1-0)
Jan-10-2012…Melo’s out…Knicks cover at +5.5
This line was 5 or lower for a lot of the day. For theory testing will use closing #s, although a valid argument could be made to use opening.
The Vaunted Reverse Theory (1-0) (VRT)
Jan-10-2012….MIA a public like all day. (at PORT) This game saw some reverse movement which brought the line down. However, a late surge brought the line back up. Lesson: A reverse can be defined as “A team, who nobody likes, yet their line moves the wrong way..even if later it goes the right way”
lot of pushes, this usually works on moneyline also. knicks lost.
anyway anthony is out so often since last month. when anthony is out knicks are so so.
when they beat miami( that was the spot), after that knicks lost pushed lost , last night pushed or win, but i got pacers -3 at bwin
so not sure about the theory for the knicks without anthony.
but usually it works well.
Posted:
#2939
Quote Originally Posted by fiire:
He is underrolled already.
2k bank and he is betting 100$ this is a recipe for desaster if you are not very selective.
Now you want him to bet 200$ on a single play? Uff...
But ok he is trying to hit a high ROI and a high win %, it might be just fine to play a bit more risky with 100$ stakes, but 200$ is overdoing it.
As long as he keeps going near the 57%+ mark it will be just fine.
If you ask me I would not be betting more than 35$ on spreads/totals with this bankroll, but alright I have a different approach to this and have way more plays than Marvin during the course of a week and vary my stake a lot depending on the odds I take and the win % I expect.
He is underrolled already.
2k bank and he is betting 100$ this is a recipe for desaster if you are not very selective.
Now you want him to bet 200$ on a single play? Uff...
But ok he is trying to hit a high ROI and a high win %, it might be just fine to play a bit more risky with 100$ stakes, but 200$ is overdoing it.
As long as he keeps going near the 57%+ mark it will be just fine.
If you ask me I would not be betting more than 35$ on spreads/totals with this bankroll, but alright I have a different approach to this and have way more plays than Marvin during the course of a week and vary my stake a lot depending on the odds I take and the win % I expect.
So he just should post the bets with his "true" bankroll. In order to have more room to make other betting options...bcs I' still say that continually hitting over 57~58% is hard, really hard!
Posted:
#2940
Quote Originally Posted by sghf:
Mavin,
I congratulate you on an excellent thread and your effort over the past couple of weeks has been very much appreciated by me and many others. I also commend you on your positive attitude and the way way you deal with the negative posts!
With that said, and being a follower reading every post from day 1, I believe this thread has sidetracked from the original intention, which i believe was to try and help, educate others on the most common do's and dont's by the average sports better and in turn hopefully help many new players avoid common mistakes, which are not usually recongnized untill many mistakes and many dollars later..
I consider myself a seasoned vet, playing daily for 10+ years now, but still only consider this a part time job, and know everyday is another learning experience, which i make notes of both good and bad, and even after that long i still know i have lots to learn..
As this thread has ballooned to over 2500 reply's, the thing i've noticed that is somewhat dissapointing which i know you have no control over, is the fact that certain posters (who you are supposedly trying to help) are seemingly not learning a single thing and are using this 200K viewed thread to post their 20+ plays in one betting day, then coming back after the results are in and saying they played a 3 or 4 game parlay outside of the 20+ singles they already played and "surprising" it hit to get them 10 to 1 or whatever to turn a plus day.. i've seen this multiple times now, which i personally can overlook, but knowing the original intention of this thread, it annoys me knowing that a lot of your hard work and good intentions are being overshadowed by posters making "joe public" mistakes on probably 30% of these post's and not paying attention to a thing you are trying to teach..
Again, I commend you for what over all is a great thread, I just wish there was more situational, reverse line movement, stay away from game, great spot for a bet,... talk then all of this team A is the best and team B is the worst therefore team A should blow out team B... that's just nonsense, but OTHER then FROM YOU a lot of the posts on here with picks are just that..
Sorry to vent a little, but I like you, just want to learn and help others learn, so hopefully at the end of the day we can all be just a little more educated and most importantly a consistently bigger bank roll!!
Keep doing what you're doing tho, I truely enjoy all of YOUR post's!
Mavin,
I congratulate you on an excellent thread and your effort over the past couple of weeks has been very much appreciated by me and many others. I also commend you on your positive attitude and the way way you deal with the negative posts!
With that said, and being a follower reading every post from day 1, I believe this thread has sidetracked from the original intention, which i believe was to try and help, educate others on the most common do's and dont's by the average sports better and in turn hopefully help many new players avoid common mistakes, which are not usually recongnized untill many mistakes and many dollars later..
I consider myself a seasoned vet, playing daily for 10+ years now, but still only consider this a part time job, and know everyday is another learning experience, which i make notes of both good and bad, and even after that long i still know i have lots to learn..
As this thread has ballooned to over 2500 reply's, the thing i've noticed that is somewhat dissapointing which i know you have no control over, is the fact that certain posters (who you are supposedly trying to help) are seemingly not learning a single thing and are using this 200K viewed thread to post their 20+ plays in one betting day, then coming back after the results are in and saying they played a 3 or 4 game parlay outside of the 20+ singles they already played and "surprising" it hit to get them 10 to 1 or whatever to turn a plus day.. i've seen this multiple times now, which i personally can overlook, but knowing the original intention of this thread, it annoys me knowing that a lot of your hard work and good intentions are being overshadowed by posters making "joe public" mistakes on probably 30% of these post's and not paying attention to a thing you are trying to teach..
Again, I commend you for what over all is a great thread, I just wish there was more situational, reverse line movement, stay away from game, great spot for a bet,... talk then all of this team A is the best and team B is the worst therefore team A should blow out team B... that's just nonsense, but OTHER then FROM YOU a lot of the posts on here with picks are just that..
Sorry to vent a little, but I like you, just want to learn and help others learn, so hopefully at the end of the day we can all be just a little more educated and most importantly a consistently bigger bank roll!!
Keep doing what you're doing tho, I truely enjoy all of YOUR post's!
Totally agree with you sghf. Had the same feeling... And I'm also not trying to "spoil the blood" (we say that in my country, dont know if it's the same in english) because I like this thread very much and I know we all have the same goal...
GL All
Posted:
#2941
Quote Originally Posted by washhead:
Looks like Chicago might be a good play today. They've come down to +4 or +4.5 (depending on the book) from +5.5 despite a small majority of the action coming in on NY.
Looks like Chicago might be a good play today. They've come down to +4 or +4.5 (depending on the book) from +5.5 despite a small majority of the action coming in on NY.
Excellent observation, WH!
Just "banged it in".
Don't know about you, but I got scared off with a MIA flurry (move) last nite.
Same could happen here.
Some Knick money could come in, thereby neutralizing the reverse play (VRT).
But I think the MAI-PORT gm of last night sets us straight on this issue.
Mav, members workin together ! Thanks for fostering the environment.
Posted:
#2942
Quote Originally Posted by kevinkim:
the key player out theory wasnt that perfect last night
the key player out theory wasnt that perfect last night
lot of pushes, this usually works on moneyline also. knicks lost.
anyway anthony is out so often since last month. when anthony is out knicks are so so.
when they beat miami( that was the spot), after that knicks lost pushed lost , last night pushed or win, but i got pacers -3 at bwin
so not sure about the theory for the knicks without anthony.
but usually it works well.
"the key player out theory wasnt that perfect last night"
You're right, Kev.
Gotta use the closing numbers when I track this thing, though.
To do otherwise could get very complicated.
Posted:
#2943
Ugh. Tough loss on the DAL/SAC Under. Total went 202 in regulation but sailed over when they were afforded 5 more minutes to score in OT. Oh well. Confident in my capping abilities and confident that I made the correct cap yesterday, adjusting nicely after an incorrect cap the day before.
REMEMBER this important rule not only when gambling, but also in life. I use this strategy for poker and I have had much success online and brick&mortar playing holdem. Do not become results oriented. Let us use poker as a great analogy here. Let's say your opponent puts you all in and you are sitting with QQ preflop and make the call. He turns over AK. Well you made the right call, you are ahead and very +EV. Just because your opponent flops an A and you end up losing that particular time DOES NOT MEAN YOU MADE THE WRONG PLAY. In fact just like poker, sports gambling is a marathon. When you make that call enough times in the long run you become a heavy +EV favorite to win money. To relate back to sports gambling, we make the correct caps and predictions many times but there is definitely a luck factor involved. The game was heading for a solid under the entire game but a late thrust by the Mavs sent the game into OT and over the total. Oh well. If these two teams played again in a similar scenario, I would make the same play and expect +EV in the long run.
DAL/SAC Under 
Blazers +8/Pacers -0.5 Teaser 
1-1 last night
6-3 in thread
Still had a good day though as my 4 unit teaser hit. Would have been nice to hit both. On to the next one.
Spurs @ Grizzlies: Pick Under 188
Here is exactly what we were talking about yesterday. A potent offense meets a very respected D. The trend here has to go to the under, especially lately. But what about historically? We have all heard the adage, "defense wins championships"... Is it true? One thing I can tell you is defense never slumps! Not unless the effort isn't there. So do we have motivation? Absolutely. The Grizz should be highly motivated to beat perennial powerhouse San Antonio. Popp should have his players in a defensive mindset as well. He is good enough to know when to adjust. His players came off a (suprisingly) close game against the Lakers as it came closer down to the wire than many thought. Both teams had yesterday off. Fresh legs. They can run if they want to....but will they want to? This game will be about defense. Whoever plays better D will win the game ->> their coaches know this and should be instructing their teams to have a similar mindset. Both of these teams have been under monsters the past week and a half. I expect the trend to continue as defense will be the focus for both coaches.
I will be following the thread in this discussion and might release another pick. Perhaps another multi-unit parlay since that was successful yesterday.
BOL to all 
Posted:
#2944
Quote Originally Posted by glenndef62:
Excellent observation, WH!
Just "banged it in".
Don't know about you, but I got scared off with a MIA flurry (move) last nite.
Same could happen here.
Some Knick money could come in, thereby neutralizing the reverse play (VRT).
But I think the MAI-PORT gm of last night sets us straight on this issue.
Mav, members workin together ! Thanks for fostering the environment.
I'm going to hang on and watch it for a while. My book almost always drifts towards the favorite close to gametime, so I'm hoping if I wait I can get them at +4.5 or even +5. Regardless, I think it's a good play.
Posted:
#2946
Quote Originally Posted by 2SpreadKiller:
Mavin,
first off thx for all the info and write ups u share with us all here in the covers forum.
I just want to give my opinion regarding your betting method. You are now at 30-21 overall in the NBA (59%) and since you started the thread you are averaging an hit ratio off 58 to 62%, which is amazing. But after 51 games and with that amazing hit ratio you are "just" 5.7 units up.
In my opinion and for my experience high hit ratios (above 58%) are hard to keep during an entire season and even less for several seasons. So, wouldn't be more profitable to bet every now and then 2 or more units in those plays you are really confident?
I'm just asking this bcs I've only seen you bet a 2 unit play in the first bet you made here.
Once again thx for sharing your work
I'm doing from time to time. In a funny way the reason the profits are "little" (to have profits is already an achievement for any sports bettor - don't you agree? Because regardless of the records you will find very little number of bettors actually keep money in their pockets and add to it) is that more two units plays lost than won
Posted:
#2947
Ellis tweaked his ankle during Wednesday's win in Chicago but is expected to play Friday against Detroit, FOX Sports Wisconsin reports.
Spin:
Following the injury, Ellis, who has knocked down just 34.8 percent from the floor in five January tilts, was only able to endure a light workout in Thursday's practice. Friday's morning shootaround should give us a better determination of his availability versus the Pistons.
Posted:
#2948
Quote Originally Posted by sghf:
Mavin,
I congratulate you on an excellent thread and your effort over the past couple of weeks has been very much appreciated by me and many others. I also commend you on your positive attitude and the way way you deal with the negative posts!
With that said, and being a follower reading every post from day 1, I believe this thread has sidetracked from the original intention, which i believe was to try and help, educate others on the most common do's and dont's by the average sports better and in turn hopefully help many new players avoid common mistakes, which are not usually recongnized untill many mistakes and many dollars later..
I consider myself a seasoned vet, playing daily for 10+ years now, but still only consider this a part time job, and know everyday is another learning experience, which i make notes of both good and bad, and even after that long i still know i have lots to learn..
As this thread has ballooned to over 2500 reply's, the thing i've noticed that is somewhat dissapointing which i know you have no control over, is the fact that certain posters (who you are supposedly trying to help) are seemingly not learning a single thing and are using this 200K viewed thread to post their 20+ plays in one betting day, then coming back after the results are in and saying they played a 3 or 4 game parlay outside of the 20+ singles they already played and "surprising" it hit to get them 10 to 1 or whatever to turn a plus day.. i've seen this multiple times now, which i personally can overlook, but knowing the original intention of this thread, it annoys me knowing that a lot of your hard work and good intentions are being overshadowed by posters making "joe public" mistakes on probably 30% of these post's and not paying attention to a thing you are trying to teach..
Again, I commend you for what over all is a great thread, I just wish there was more situational, reverse line movement, stay away from game, great spot for a bet,... talk then all of this team A is the best and team B is the worst therefore team A should blow out team B... that's just nonsense, but OTHER then FROM YOU a lot of the posts on here with picks are just that..
Sorry to vent a little, but I like you, just want to learn and help others learn, so hopefully at the end of the day we can all be just a little more educated and most importantly a consistently bigger bank roll!!
Keep doing what you're doing tho, I truely enjoy all of YOUR post's!
Mavin,
I congratulate you on an excellent thread and your effort over the past couple of weeks has been very much appreciated by me and many others. I also commend you on your positive attitude and the way way you deal with the negative posts!
With that said, and being a follower reading every post from day 1, I believe this thread has sidetracked from the original intention, which i believe was to try and help, educate others on the most common do's and dont's by the average sports better and in turn hopefully help many new players avoid common mistakes, which are not usually recongnized untill many mistakes and many dollars later..
I consider myself a seasoned vet, playing daily for 10+ years now, but still only consider this a part time job, and know everyday is another learning experience, which i make notes of both good and bad, and even after that long i still know i have lots to learn..
As this thread has ballooned to over 2500 reply's, the thing i've noticed that is somewhat dissapointing which i know you have no control over, is the fact that certain posters (who you are supposedly trying to help) are seemingly not learning a single thing and are using this 200K viewed thread to post their 20+ plays in one betting day, then coming back after the results are in and saying they played a 3 or 4 game parlay outside of the 20+ singles they already played and "surprising" it hit to get them 10 to 1 or whatever to turn a plus day.. i've seen this multiple times now, which i personally can overlook, but knowing the original intention of this thread, it annoys me knowing that a lot of your hard work and good intentions are being overshadowed by posters making "joe public" mistakes on probably 30% of these post's and not paying attention to a thing you are trying to teach..
Again, I commend you for what over all is a great thread, I just wish there was more situational, reverse line movement, stay away from game, great spot for a bet,... talk then all of this team A is the best and team B is the worst therefore team A should blow out team B... that's just nonsense, but OTHER then FROM YOU a lot of the posts on here with picks are just that..
Sorry to vent a little, but I like you, just want to learn and help others learn, so hopefully at the end of the day we can all be just a little more educated and most importantly a consistently bigger bank roll!!
Keep doing what you're doing tho, I truely enjoy all of YOUR post's!
I appreciate the time and effort you put in that comment buddy! I agree with everything said here. Thanks
Posted:
#2949
Quote Originally Posted by Legend00:
Ugh. Tough loss on the DAL/SAC Under. Total went 202 in regulation but sailed over when they were afforded 5 more minutes to score in OT. Oh well. Confident in my capping abilities and confident that I made the correct cap yesterday, adjusting nicely after an incorrect cap the day before.
Ugh. Tough loss on the DAL/SAC Under. Total went 202 in regulation but sailed over when they were afforded 5 more minutes to score in OT. Oh well. Confident in my capping abilities and confident that I made the correct cap yesterday, adjusting nicely after an incorrect cap the day before.
REMEMBER this important rule not only when gambling, but also in life. I use this strategy for poker and I have had much success online and brick&mortar playing holdem. Do not become results oriented. Let us use poker as a great analogy here. Let's say your opponent puts you all in and you are sitting with QQ preflop and make the call. He turns over AK. Well you made the right call, you are ahead and very +EV. Just because your opponent flops an A and you end up losing that particular time DOES NOT MEAN YOU MADE THE WRONG PLAY. In fact just like poker, sports gambling is a marathon. When you make that call enough times in the long run you become a heavy +EV favorite to win money. To relate back to sports gambling, we make the correct caps and predictions many times but there is definitely a luck factor involved. The game was heading for a solid under the entire game but a late thrust by the Mavs sent the game into OT and over the total. Oh well. If these two teams played again in a similar scenario, I would make the same play and expect +EV in the long run.
DAL/SAC Under
Blazers +8/Pacers -0.5 Teaser
1-1 last night
6-3 in thread
Still had a good day though as my 4 unit teaser hit. Would have been nice to hit both. On to the next one.
Spurs @ Grizzlies: Pick Under 188
Here is exactly what we were talking about yesterday. A potent offense meets a very respected D. The trend here has to go to the under, especially lately. But what about historically? We have all heard the adage, "defense wins championships"... Is it true? One thing I can tell you is defense never slumps! Not unless the effort isn't there. So do we have motivation? Absolutely. The Grizz should be highly motivated to beat perennial powerhouse San Antonio. Popp should have his players in a defensive mindset as well. He is good enough to know when to adjust. His players came off a (suprisingly) close game against the Lakers as it came closer down to the wire than many thought. Both teams had yesterday off. Fresh legs. They can run if they want to....but will they want to? This game will be about defense. Whoever plays better D will win the game ->> their coaches know this and should be instructing their teams to have a similar mindset. Both of these teams have been under monsters the past week and a half. I expect the trend to continue as defense will be the focus for both coaches.
I will be following the thread in this discussion and might release another pick. Perhaps another multi-unit parlay since that was successful yesterday.
BOL to all
I commend you on your continued effort and consistent recaps and record posting. That is the best tool of keeping it under control and setting a merit for the fellow bettors
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