I almost bet Utah +2.5 second half for same reason as I liked over, since Utah wasn't tracking first half either. Missed that one but it was a system play also.
I almost bet Utah +2.5 second half for same reason as I liked over, since Utah wasn't tracking first half either. Missed that one but it was a system play also.
Guys this game is painful to watch and I'm gonna take a bath on it, prob 0-3. Fuck.
I think I'm gonna add a new rule after tonight, one play per game. I talked myself into Utah, and then decided if Utah covered it would go over also. This is a good example of overdoing it. Had a great week and now taking a couple steps back on this one. Oh well.
Still like Memphis to bail us out later.
Guys this game is painful to watch and I'm gonna take a bath on it, prob 0-3. Fuck.
I think I'm gonna add a new rule after tonight, one play per game. I talked myself into Utah, and then decided if Utah covered it would go over also. This is a good example of overdoing it. Had a great week and now taking a couple steps back on this one. Oh well.
Czech appreciate your insight and your picks but I feel like you forced some tonight to please people. You've won 9 in a row and then you make 4 plays with only 2 games. That seems like a lot of plays with such a small board.
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Czech appreciate your insight and your picks but I feel like you forced some tonight to please people. You've won 9 in a row and then you make 4 plays with only 2 games. That seems like a lot of plays with such a small board.
You wanted the spotlight, you got it. Performing under pressure and going 4-0 when nobody is paying attention is a different story. When you're under the spotlight, you'll have fans and you'll have haters. You have to accept the good and the bad. I'll be forward and say that I'm hating... but you asked for the attention. I could be a jackass and say quit your day job but I won't.
If you want to be successful at this, it's gonna take more than picking 60% winners. Eventually the juice is going catch up with you. All the stress, time, and money invested in this isn't worth it. This isn't even counting the fact that you need a strict money management routine to even survive.
It looks like you're running bad. That halftime over wager was totally unnecessary. You're just chasing loses and not even paying attention to the tempo of this game.
Self control, homework on every aspect of a game wagered, and proper money/bankroll management is the key to success. Pick your spots and pound a game if you REALLY like it. No stupid system is going to help you retire anytime soon. That's why it's called gambling.
Just my two cents.
You wanted the spotlight, you got it. Performing under pressure and going 4-0 when nobody is paying attention is a different story. When you're under the spotlight, you'll have fans and you'll have haters. You have to accept the good and the bad. I'll be forward and say that I'm hating... but you asked for the attention. I could be a jackass and say quit your day job but I won't.
If you want to be successful at this, it's gonna take more than picking 60% winners. Eventually the juice is going catch up with you. All the stress, time, and money invested in this isn't worth it. This isn't even counting the fact that you need a strict money management routine to even survive.
It looks like you're running bad. That halftime over wager was totally unnecessary. You're just chasing loses and not even paying attention to the tempo of this game.
Self control, homework on every aspect of a game wagered, and proper money/bankroll management is the key to success. Pick your spots and pound a game if you REALLY like it. No stupid system is going to help you retire anytime soon. That's why it's called gambling.
Thanks vision. You're right I did chase this one and lastmuhs hit it on the head I pushed to please people.
If you read all the posts pre-game we see how undecided we were on this game. The rules were not followed.
First off, Utah. Didn't qualify under rule 1, I specifically spelled out that there must be significant and directional line movement and that was not there. 1/2 pt moves don't qualify.
Then the total. I think the over did qualify, to an extent, although I never saw a convincing majority on the under, and thus could have disqualified the pick under rule 2, and almost did. Ugh.
The second half bet would have qualified as long as the over pre game qualified, but again I'm not sure it did based on rule 2.
This whole game should have been a no-play
Thanks vision. You're right I did chase this one and lastmuhs hit it on the head I pushed to please people.
If you read all the posts pre-game we see how undecided we were on this game. The rules were not followed.
First off, Utah. Didn't qualify under rule 1, I specifically spelled out that there must be significant and directional line movement and that was not there. 1/2 pt moves don't qualify.
Then the total. I think the over did qualify, to an extent, although I never saw a convincing majority on the under, and thus could have disqualified the pick under rule 2, and almost did. Ugh.
The second half bet would have qualified as long as the over pre game qualified, but again I'm not sure it did based on rule 2.
If you want to be successful at this, it's gonna take more than picking 60% winners. Eventually the juice is going catch up with you.
Sorry I just don't understand, if you bet NBA with odds of -110 and hit 60%, how do you end up losing? Can you explain it? 60%*0.91-40%=14.6% which means you win $14.6 betting every $100, am I correct?
Quote Originally Posted by vision23x:
If you want to be successful at this, it's gonna take more than picking 60% winners. Eventually the juice is going catch up with you.
Sorry I just don't understand, if you bet NBA with odds of -110 and hit 60%, how do you end up losing? Can you explain it? 60%*0.91-40%=14.6% which means you win $14.6 betting every $100, am I correct?
I specifically stated that the sharp play was most likely gonna be on the Memphis game, not Utah. I knew to leave this one alone and didn't.
Vision, I don't like haters in my thread, I'm trying to be constructive here and help us all make money. I'm doing this for free sharing my research and time and energy, not just for attention.
It is haters like you that hate for attention. But with all of that said, you were right on me chasing a bad bet at halftime. I knew inside not to make it any worse at halftime, and did anyways.
You're absolutely wrong about 60% not being good enough though. Juice never catches up at 60% dude. Do your math. We're all human here and make mistakes including me. And obviously you do also by that ridiculous comment.
Read my post #183
I specifically stated that the sharp play was most likely gonna be on the Memphis game, not Utah. I knew to leave this one alone and didn't.
Vision, I don't like haters in my thread, I'm trying to be constructive here and help us all make money. I'm doing this for free sharing my research and time and energy, not just for attention.
It is haters like you that hate for attention. But with all of that said, you were right on me chasing a bad bet at halftime. I knew inside not to make it any worse at halftime, and did anyways.
You're absolutely wrong about 60% not being good enough though. Juice never catches up at 60% dude. Do your math. We're all human here and make mistakes including me. And obviously you do also by that ridiculous comment.
We are OUR own worst enemy. YYSMER... if you have the self control to wager $100.00 on every game win or lose (over 100+ games), you'll come out victorious in the long term if you hit 60%. But the problem is, we never do that.... that's where the books slaughter us. Every person in this forum that's an avid sports fan can predict the outcome of 50% or higher in the long run (or else we wouldn't wager on these games unless you're just a compulsive gambler).
Most of us go broke because we have no self control or proper bankroll management. I am a perfect example of that. I can honestly say I can predict 70% winners but I have the money management skills of broke retired NBA athlete.
Czech-Razor - I wish you the best of luck. With some tweaks and adjustments, you may have a system in place. Don't let people like me discourage you. Like I said, you just gotta take the good and the bad.
Good luck guys.
We are OUR own worst enemy. YYSMER... if you have the self control to wager $100.00 on every game win or lose (over 100+ games), you'll come out victorious in the long term if you hit 60%. But the problem is, we never do that.... that's where the books slaughter us. Every person in this forum that's an avid sports fan can predict the outcome of 50% or higher in the long run (or else we wouldn't wager on these games unless you're just a compulsive gambler).
Most of us go broke because we have no self control or proper bankroll management. I am a perfect example of that. I can honestly say I can predict 70% winners but I have the money management skills of broke retired NBA athlete.
Czech-Razor - I wish you the best of luck. With some tweaks and adjustments, you may have a system in place. Don't let people like me discourage you. Like I said, you just gotta take the good and the bad.
Czech appreciate your insight and your picks but I feel like you forced some tonight to please people. You've won 9 in a row and then you make 4 plays with only 2 games. That seems like a lot of plays with such a small board.
Lastmuh,
Thanks for posting man, and hope you'll continue to visit the thread in the future. You were exactly right on me forcing the game to please people, including myself.
That's not what I set out to do here, and I'm sorry to everyone for doing that. One of my main problems in the past is discipline.
If you check the Serious Streak Survivor thread that I started posting in 11 days ago (or so), I spelled out my system and then mis-picked a couple games in Game 1 of the playoffs and got off to a horrible start, and looked like an ass there also.
What's funny is I broke my own rules then as well. After the second day I was at 4-6 and decided to not push anything anymore, and strictly followed my own rules and went 9-0 between then and now, bringing me to 13-6.
Today I was itching so bad to please everyone including myself that I forced myself to pick this game. Bulls are my personal team but with them pretty much fucked right now I like SA to win it all. And in spite of this I grasped at Utah and the over tonight, even though the under is 3-0 in the series so far.
I don't mind my Utah and over picks as personal picks, honestly, and had my own reasons for liking both, but I started this thread to evaluate the system, not my own opinion.
I'm sorry for straying from the system. If the system loses then so be it, but we should all give it a fair shot. The system really didn't give us anything on this game tonight besides the over, so I should be looking at 0-1 on the game right now. Not a big deal. 0-3 sucks though and is totally unnecessary.
Quote Originally Posted by Lastmushstandin:
Czech appreciate your insight and your picks but I feel like you forced some tonight to please people. You've won 9 in a row and then you make 4 plays with only 2 games. That seems like a lot of plays with such a small board.
Lastmuh,
Thanks for posting man, and hope you'll continue to visit the thread in the future. You were exactly right on me forcing the game to please people, including myself.
That's not what I set out to do here, and I'm sorry to everyone for doing that. One of my main problems in the past is discipline.
If you check the Serious Streak Survivor thread that I started posting in 11 days ago (or so), I spelled out my system and then mis-picked a couple games in Game 1 of the playoffs and got off to a horrible start, and looked like an ass there also.
What's funny is I broke my own rules then as well. After the second day I was at 4-6 and decided to not push anything anymore, and strictly followed my own rules and went 9-0 between then and now, bringing me to 13-6.
Today I was itching so bad to please everyone including myself that I forced myself to pick this game. Bulls are my personal team but with them pretty much fucked right now I like SA to win it all. And in spite of this I grasped at Utah and the over tonight, even though the under is 3-0 in the series so far.
I don't mind my Utah and over picks as personal picks, honestly, and had my own reasons for liking both, but I started this thread to evaluate the system, not my own opinion.
I'm sorry for straying from the system. If the system loses then so be it, but we should all give it a fair shot. The system really didn't give us anything on this game tonight besides the over, so I should be looking at 0-1 on the game right now. Not a big deal. 0-3 sucks though and is totally unnecessary.
Hey Czech. It's all good bro. Nobody can win 100% and I know first hand how difficult it can be to not take any action but sometimes wanting to take some action causes your mind to push you in the wrong direction. I saw the same numbers on the SA/Utah game and it became a no play for me. Now im seeing about 54% oof the public betting the clippers to cover the spread and the line hasn't really moved but I also see that about 72% of the public is on the Grizzlies moneyline. So I have to ask myself what part of the action does Vegas want to win? Sorry I didn't get this out any sooner. Just a thought. Stay grounded my friend and you will be successful.
Hey Czech. It's all good bro. Nobody can win 100% and I know first hand how difficult it can be to not take any action but sometimes wanting to take some action causes your mind to push you in the wrong direction. I saw the same numbers on the SA/Utah game and it became a no play for me. Now im seeing about 54% oof the public betting the clippers to cover the spread and the line hasn't really moved but I also see that about 72% of the public is on the Grizzlies moneyline. So I have to ask myself what part of the action does Vegas want to win? Sorry I didn't get this out any sooner. Just a thought. Stay grounded my friend and you will be successful.
Thanks vision. You're right I did chase this one and lastmuhs hit it on the head I pushed to please people.
If you read all the posts pre-game we see how undecided we were on this game. The rules were not followed.
First off, Utah. Didn't qualify under rule 1, I specifically spelled out that there must be significant and directional line movement and that was not there. 1/2 pt moves don't qualify.
Then the total. I think the over did qualify, to an extent, although I never saw a convincing majority on the under, and thus could have disqualified the pick under rule 2, and almost did. Ugh.
The second half bet would have qualified as long as the over pre game qualified, but again I'm not sure it did based on rule 2.
This whole game should have been a no-play
People rarely take their own advice (money management)
bol
Quote Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:
Thanks vision. You're right I did chase this one and lastmuhs hit it on the head I pushed to please people.
If you read all the posts pre-game we see how undecided we were on this game. The rules were not followed.
First off, Utah. Didn't qualify under rule 1, I specifically spelled out that there must be significant and directional line movement and that was not there. 1/2 pt moves don't qualify.
Then the total. I think the over did qualify, to an extent, although I never saw a convincing majority on the under, and thus could have disqualified the pick under rule 2, and almost did. Ugh.
The second half bet would have qualified as long as the over pre game qualified, but again I'm not sure it did based on rule 2.
This whole game should have been a no-play
People rarely take their own advice (money management)
Actually the ML totals don't mean crap on this game. Think about it, whoever takes Mem will be inclined to go ML and whoever takes clips will go ats. That's not telling us anything.
Actually the ML totals don't mean crap on this game. Think about it, whoever takes Mem will be inclined to go ML and whoever takes clips will go ats. That's not telling us anything.
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