Riyhad

@bringit

 This would be the other end of the spectrum, may I ask why you didn’t take 2-0 in this bet as under would 99% of the time be a 2-0 match 

@Dannice14

 So there were basically 4 options I looked at.

2-0 was -154

-4.5 was -128

Under 20.5 was -118

But the under with peg ML was +108. If you are asking why I wouldn't parlay 2-0 with the under instead I don't believe that the odds would've been any different if they even allowed it since like you said it would be very highly unlikely to stay under 20.5 if it went to 3

Any thoughts of Sabalenka/Gauff? I lean towards the over 22’ games (+110)

@JoseAlonso787

 That's how I'm leaning too.

But I also kind of have a feeling that Gauff wins. Nothing about her form here would suggest that but I have that feeling. But if I do end up taking Gauff it would probably be after watching a few games. Will be looking at Gauff's face for either that emotionless blank stare she has when she's in the zone or that look towards her team that screams help.

If my math is correct I think for Gauff to advance she will need to win in two sets or if it goes to three she would need to win by 5 games or more. So she could win in 3 and still be eliminated.

@bringit

 I placed o9’ games Set 1 (-120) and will see where it goes from there 

Yeah it's that blank emotionless look

@bringit

Are you going for it?

Yeah I did. I think she wins in 2

@bringit

Just played her to win Set 2 (+125), crossing my fingers for this o9’ games. 

I like her even more for Set 2 now that she needs to win it. 

@JoseAlonso787

 If she loses this in a breaker she would at least have the chance to win by 5 games. If she wins the breaker she would definitely have to win second set.

I should have gone with my instinct and unloaded on Set 1 over 9’ games. Win some, lose some. Always 20/20 in hindsight. 

@JoseAlonso787

 She was so composed for most of that first set. Even when Sabs broke her the first time she didn't seem bothered at all and broke right back. She is so dangerous when she has that kind of demeanor.

And she goes the entire set without a DF until the most crucial moment. Hits 72% of first serves in play and wins 70% of second service points. You practically never see a player lose a set with those numbers.

Under normal circumstances she probably still has a good chance to make a match of it in the second set but she went into the match knowing she pretty much needed to take it in 2 so she was completely deflated in the second. But yeah, in hindsight the first set over was the logical play and given their history against each other I'm really kicking myself for not recognizing the clear value in over 10.5 & 12.5 there.

@bringit

For sure. I loved the 9’ (-120) and only hit it to win 1.5 unit. Usually when I get the (very strong) feeling that I had when I saw it and assessed it, I’ll end up making my max play (to win 5 units). I talked myself out of it and over analyzed it by talking myself into the “let’s just see how the match progresses”

Win some, lose some. Onto the next one!

@bringit

 Rybakina -125 in September against Pegula and won in 2 sets.

Her form has looked amazing but steamed to -214 now. Gotta lean her direction right?

@monkeebooger

 Yeah, Rybakina for sure. Those September odds at BJK were probably fair at that time but obviously the situation has changed now. 

Ever since she qualified I've said I think she is the most likely champion and I still feel that way. As a fan I'd like to see AA win it though.

In the Anisimova match I feel pretty much the same way as I felt about the match against Iga. Much closer to an even matchup than the odds would suggest so probably some value on her at 2 to 1 odds. The over would be a solid play as well.

Austin

Mary Stoiana +5.5 (-125)

Tucuman

Jasmin Ortenzi -3.5 (-118)

Obviously I like Sinakova/Townsend to win. I took them 2-0 but do so at your own risk since no ad doubles can get tricky.

Possibly the two worst plays ever posted. And I've done pretty well at these tournaments, especially Tucuman and the clay circuit in general over the past few weeks. But the moment I post something it's already a loser so won't be doing that anymore. 

But I can't stress enough the importance of keeping an eye out for fade opportunities against Parks, Dolehide and Avanesyan in the clay events over the next few weeks. I think each of the 3 events will feature 2 or 3 of these players.

Avanesyan might be the only one who is possibly capable of turning things around so keep an eye out for that. With her playing all these events it could mean her injury is better and maybe she just needs to find match rhythm. I had Gorgodze against her but I didn't get to watch the match to see how Avanesyan looked but Gorg would've been a tough opponent even if healthy. 

As for Dolehide and Parks, I have a very tough time seeing them in their current form beating any of these girls that are regulars on the clay tour.

What an incredible run by Rybakina. She's been a choker in the past but she's had her back against the wall for a month now and never waivered. Been fun to watch.