Riyhad

Nice easy win , hate it when doubles goes to distance 

@bringit

 Let’s go! Lovely pick 

@Bjorn_Borg

 Yeah odds went up. I got +223. General consensus I'm reading is that Rybakina will be looking to retain her momentum and rhythm but I don't see it that way at all. If that was the case wouldn't she have just gone ahead and won Tokyo which would've been highly probable? And that was an opportunity for a title. This is a highly paid exhibition match. If Rybakina gives 100% and loses this match that would be what kills her momentum and puts doubt in her head. If she treats the match as the mostly meaningless match that it is she can get double bageled and not really feel bad about it. 

Momentum and confidence are perception things and how outsiders perceive that is meaningless, what really matters is Rybakina's perception. If she doesn't give this match her all it makes it impossible for this match to break her spirit. 

Plus she's played more matches recently than anyone else in the field and no reason to risk ending up like the Commanders and Jayden Daniels. If given the choice to withdraw there would've been practically 0% chance she even plays the match.

so far not surprised, rybakina is too much of a competitor to just lose and alexandrova is too much of a choker to win when she should

@reffub

 She is playing for 5 

million if she wins out 

I’m playing Swiatek -1’ games Set 1 (-140) to win 2 units.

Thoughts on that game?

@JoseAlonso787

 Too tough for me to call. From a value perspective I think there's probably some value on Anisimova ML just because I see it being closer to a toss up.

@bringit it was a close one, Rybakina stepped up on key points, but didn't look to interested, if Alexandrova would have converted her chances in the first set, I wouldn't be surprised if she would have won in two. 

 
We seen Rybakina lose to Maria T in straight sets on grass this year already... 


Virtanen takes first set 6-1, I think he has good chance to win this tournament, but not sure what they have done with the draw, the #1 and #2 in Finland plays already in the second round...that should have been the final.

Already locked in Pegula J 2-0 tomorrow, Paolini has been sick all week and nothing to play for. Pegula need a 2-0 win to secure the next semi.

4-1 H2H to Pegula, so won all her matches in two sets, only loss was in Billie Jean Cup.

Thoughts? 

@Bjorn_Borg

 The only problem I see is that it could possibly void with a withdrawal. Andreeva was the first alternate but was apparently either sick or injured and declined to play today. I don't know what happens if there's no alternate to fill in. Stick a doubles player in there? It's obviously an important match so surely somebody has to play.

This match is exactly what you want to see from two top players facing elimination.

Yeah the monetary figures are simply adjusted by $350k based upon the outcome of that match. Rybakina can now win the maximum amount possible but if she had lost today the total possible winnings would be reduced by 350k. Like Gauff last year lost a match so she took home a measly $4.8 million which is like nearly a years pay for me lol. But if throwing away that 350k gives you a better shot at winning the big prize for rest or whatever reason it is certainly worth it. 

In the next doubles match I like Schuurs +4.5

@bringit

 I liked sabalanka when she was -154 but now it steamed to -214.

Any thoughts bud? 

Both of the doubles favorites should definitely win today but because of the variance of no-ad scoring it's always possible they drop a set so I think the best play is to parlay Siniakova+Dabrowski ML @ +106

@monkeebooger

 That's a tough one honestly. Gauff has not looked very good so far and beating Paolini in her current condition is really not an accomplishment so all signs would point to Sabalenka there.

But it's also possible at any time for Gauff to come out and redline and be practically unbeatable. That's what happened in the semifinals and finals here last year and I would worry that it happens again today facing elimination. The conditions are great for her game here and being indoors is typically much better for her in avoiding double faults yet she still hit 17 against Pegula. It was much better against Paolini but there wasn't any pressure on her second serve there as Paolini had 40 unforced errors in a short match. Last year Gauff's serve got better as the tournament progressed as well.

Gauff also seems to always bring it when facing Sabs too. They typically end up playing a breaker and Sabs needs to win a set and Gauff needs to win the match so they'll both be fighting. I'm probably looking more towards over 21.5.

Three deciding points in the first set and Routbrowski wins all three. The set pretty much hinged on those three points. I honestly don't understand why they don't use Grand slam rules here.

Paolini is out practicing on court 2 so it appears she is a go today

Any opinion on Pegula match

Pegula ML + Under 20.5 (+108)

@brettcards

 I don’t care that it’s a must win 2-0 for peg and paolini *may* not be 100% 

jasmine is going out there which means she’s feeling good enough and fights as hard as anyone on tour if she takes a set then it becomes a meaningless match for Jessica as well, +300 way too much juice for me. I took paolini 1U but it’s simply on value here if I lose so be it 

For reference I was very close to taking alexandrova yesterday because the match meant nothing for ryb with the final round coming up and the history H2h but faded because of her form and players aren’t going to just lay down on a world stage unlike qualifiers who know they have a lucky loser spot locked up