Yet another variant for expert's old NHL OT Chase system

puma362, rman1049 - Thanks men!!

marnypoly - Yes, I do.... let me look up that info for you.

Here is a breakdown of the teams with three game chase losses this season.  For each team, the total series losses as well as the number of home-initiated losses in parenthesis (those affecting systems C and D) are listed.  All teams are listed in alphabetical order by city name.

Anaheim - 3 (0 home)
Atlanta - 4 (1)
Buffalo - 1 (0)
Calgary - 1 (1)
Carolina - 1 (0)
Chicago - 1 (1)
Colorado - 1 (0)
Columbus - 1 (1)
Dallas - 1 (1)
Detroit - 3 (2)
Montreal - 2 (0)
NY Islanders - 3 (1)
New Jersey - 1 (0)
Philadelphia - 2 (0)
Pittsburgh - 1 (0)
St. Louis - 3 (2)
Tampa Bay - 1 (1)
Toronto - 3 (1)
Vancouver - 5 (3)
Washington - 2 (0)

Totals - 40 (15)

As a check... 40 is the number of system A losses and 15 is the number of system C losses.

Cheers! 


NOTE:  Seems like a great deal more games involving Atlanta have lost, but does not appear to be the case.  Atlanta has lost the last two days, but we were chasing their opponents.

Also, on a final note... All system C records are rolled up as part of the system A stats.  So out of the 40 3-game chase series losses for the entire year, 15 of them have come on chases involving a team that was at home the night of the OT/SO game.

Thanks Kangy! I gave system C a shot today with Fla. Looks like a winner. I don't want to chase too many teams so I'm probably going to stick with that system.

Thanks again

RESULTS FOR 2/17
Boston (G1) @ Carolina – UNDER 5.5 - 1U - LOSER (No systems affected) - cheap a$$ goal with 51 seconds left takes the game over
New Jersey @ Florida (G2) – UNDER 5.5 - 2U - WINNER (A,B,C,D)
Ottawa @ Colorado (G1) - UNDER 5.5 – 1U - WINNER (A,B)
Edmonton @ San Jose (G3,G2) - UNDER 5.5 - 6U - LOSER (A)
Edmonton @ San Jose (G2) - UNDER 5.5 - 2U - LOSER (B)


San Jose loses a three game series for the first time this season!!    We should watch their next game closely as there will be another game 3 chase on Thursday night.


System A was 2-1 (-5)
System B was 2-1 (-1)
System C was 1-0 (+1)
System D was 1-0 (+1)

Updated system series records through games of 2/17
SYSTEM A - Record now 323-41 (+36 UNITS)  
SYSTEM B - Record now 287-78 (+53 UNITS)
SYSTEM C - Record now 167-15 (+62 UNITS)
SYSTEM D - Record now 149-33 (+50 UNITS)

Ongoing chases:
Washington (2nd game; 2/11; away)
Anaheim (2nd game; 2/11; home)
San Jose (3rd game; 2/13; away)
Los Angeles (2nd game; 2/14; home)
Boston (2nd game; 2/14; away)
Detroit (1st game; 2/15; home)
Pittsburgh (1st game; 2/16; away)
NY Islanders (1st game; 2/16; home)
Dallas (1st game; 2/16; away)
Columbus (1st game; 2/16; home)
Atlanta (1st game; 2/16; away)
Los Angeles (1st game; 2/16; home)
Ottawa (1st game; 2/17; away)
Colorado (1st game; 2/17; home)
Vancouver (1st game; 2/17; away)
Calgary (1st game; 2/17; home)


GAMES FOR 2/18 (Let's go 5-0!!)
Montreal @ Washington (G2) – OVER 6 - 2U (A,B)
Los Angeles (G2, G1) @ Anaheim (G2) – UNDER 5.5 - 5U (A,B,C,D)
Nashville @ Detroit (G1) - UNDER 5.5 – 1U (A,B,C,D)
NY Islanders (G1) @ NY Rangers  - UNDER 5.5 - 1U (A,B,C,D)
St. Louis @ Columbus (G1) - UNDER 5.5 - 1U (A,B,C,D)

Quick question Kangy: Are you chasing the same total throughout the chase or does it depend on the line?

Ex:
GM1 5.5
GM2 6

Guys sorry I was unable to post....

marnypoly - correct, it depends on the line
trace - hi there!

I will just give updated series records...... there are three games in progress but the rest have completed.  I will try to update with games for tomorrow night in the morning.

We picked up a few wins yesterday and tonight.  A couple Series B and D losses due to LA and Anaheim going over yesterday.  

As it stands right now.

System A - 328-41 (+41 Units)
System B - 292-80 (+52 Units)
System C - 169-15 (+64 Units)
System D - 151-35 (+46 Units)

The chase list is growing with tonight's games.  I will update sometime tomorrow.  You are going to see something rather interesting.  You will see TWO game 1 chases with Calgary.  Why?  Calgary's original game 1 chase pushed tonight with a 3-2 score in OT with the line at 5.  This is the first time this has happened this season.  Obviously we cannot push at 6 or greater, because there are no ties.  There have been pushes in game 1's this season at 5, but neither of them have gone into OT. 

San Jose and Los Angeles are locked up in 3 game chases.  If you were playing this game, it would look like this...

San Jose (G3) @ Los Angeles (G3, G2) - 10U - UNDER 5.5 (A)
San Jose @ Los Angeles (G3, G2) - 6U - UNDER 5.5 (C)
San Jose @ Los Angeles (G2) - 2U - UNDER 5.5 (B,D)

Let's go under or A and C will take a big blow tonight!!  Not looking good so far 2-1 Sharks after one....

So say if GM1 is 5.5 and you go under. You lose that then the next game's total is 6. You should bet the over?

Seems kind of risky, doesn't it?

If that's the case, do you know what you record would be if you just stuck with the total chase?

Damnit guys!  I really wanted this winning streak to continue.  But every time it looks like we get ahead, that one series screws us up.  That SJ/LA game just plain sucked!

System A got a brutal blow losing 2 third game chases

System C wasn't as bad taking one game three loss


Up to date season series records
System A - 329-43 (+28 Units)
System B - 293-81 (+50 Units)
System C - 169-16 (+57 Units)
System D - 151-36 (+43 Units)


Ongoing chases:
Anaheim (3rd game; 2/11; home)
Boston (2nd game; 2/14; away)
Detroit (2nd game; 2/15; home)
Dallas (2nd game; 2/16; away)
Los Angeles (3rd game; 2/16; home)
Ottawa (2nd game; 2/17; away)
Colorado (1st game; 2/17; home)
Vancouver (2nd game; 2/17; away)
Calgary (1st game; 2/17; home)
Washington (1st game; 2/18; home)
Columbus (1st game; 2/19; away)
Toronto (1st game; 2/19; home)
New Jersey (1st game; 2/19; away)
Tampa Bay (1st game; 2/19; home)
St. Louis (1st game; 2/19; away)
Nashville (1st game; 2/19; home)
Calgary (1st game; 2/19; away)
Minnesota (1st game; 2/19; home)
Atlanta (1st game; 2/19; away)
Phoenix (1st game; 2/19; home)


GAMES FOR 2/20
Colorado (G1) @ Washington (G1) – OVER 6 - 2U (A,B,C,D)
Tampa Bay (G1) @ Carolina  – UNDER 5.5 - 1U (A,B,C,D)
Anaheim (G3) @ Detroit (G2) - UNDER 5.5 - 6U (A,C)
Anaheim @ Detroit (G2) - UNDER 5.5 - 6U (B,D)

We are just taking the lines on the game.  The line is set to 6 and 6.5 for a reason, regardless if each team played a 2-1 game last time.  So usually, a high scoring team getting a 5.5 line is the only risky bet.  A 5 line is a risky bet, but for the most part, those usually come out over.  As for your question about taking a particular line, I do not have that particular stat but I cannot imagine that being that much better than these systems.  For what I can tell you is that in the 43 series losses this season, 30 of them occurred with all 5.5 lines (just so happened the games all went over).

Thanks for the clarification. Just trying to get a better understanding of it before I jump. I'll start tomorrow.

Good luck tonight

ARRRRGH!!  Getting real sick of watching system losses pile up.  We took another one in the jaw with Anaheim/Detroit tonight. 


RESULTS FOR 2/20
Colorado (G1) @ Washington (G1) – OVER 6 - 2U - LOSER (No systems affected)
Tampa Bay (G1) @ Carolina  – UNDER 5.5 - 1U - WINNER (A,B,C,D)
Anaheim (G3) @ Detroit (G2) - UNDER 5.5 - 6U - LOSER (A,C)
Anaheim @ Detroit (G2) - UNDER 5.5 - 6U - LOSER (B,D)

System A  1-1 (-6)
System B  1-1 (-2)
System C  1-1 (-6)
System D  1-1 (-2)


Up to date season series records
System A - 330-44 (+22 Units)
System B - 294-82 (+48 Units)
System C - 170-17 (+51 Units)
System D - 152-37 (+41 Units)


Ongoing chases:
Boston (2nd game; 2/14; away)
Detroit (3rd game; 2/15; home)
Dallas (2nd game; 2/16; away)
Los Angeles (3rd game; 2/16; home)
Ottawa (2nd game; 2/17; away)
Colorado (2nd game; 2/17; home)
Vancouver (2nd game; 2/17; away)
Calgary (1st game; 2/17; home)
Washington (2nd game; 2/18; home)
Columbus (1st game; 2/19; away)
Toronto (1st game; 2/19; home)
New Jersey (1st game; 2/19; away)
St. Louis (1st game; 2/19; away)
Nashville (1st game; 2/19; home)
Calgary (1st game; 2/19; away)
Minnesota (1st game; 2/19; home)
Atlanta (1st game; 2/19; away)
Phoenix (1st game; 2/19; home)


GAMES FOR 2/20 (Watch the lines)
Chicago @ Dallas (G2) - 2U (A,B)
Ottawa (G2) @ Montreal – 2U (A,B)
Atlanta (G1) @ San Jose - 1U (A,B)
Anaheim (G3) @ Columbus (G1) - 5U (A)
Anaheim @ Columbus (G1) - 1U (B)
Boston (G2) @ Florida - 2U (A,B)
New Jersey (G1) @ NY Islanders - 1U (A,B)
Vancouver (G2) @ Toronto (G1) - 3U (A,B)
Vancouver @ Toronto (G1) - 1U (C,D)
Detroit (G2) @ Minnesota (G1) - 3U (A,B,C,D)
Nashville (G1) @ St. Louis (G1) - 2U (A,B)
Nashville (G1) @ St. Louis - 1U (C,D)
Calgary (G1, G1) @ Edmonton - 2U (A,B)
Calgary (G1 #1) @ Edmonton - 1U (C,D)

Just been plain killed on the last few days.  All I will say at this point is play at your own risk.  For some reason, those 5.5's are playing over much more than the under nowadays and I look for the linesmaker to start showing more 6 and 6.5's soon.

Up to date season series records
System A - 340-46 (+18 Units)
System B - 304-85 (+49 Units)
System C - 176-19 (+43 Units)
System D - 158-38 (+44 Units)


Ongoing chases:
Ottawa (3rd game; 2/17; away)
Colorado (2nd game; 2/17; home)
Vancouver (2nd game; 2/17; away)
Columbus (1st game; 2/19; away)
New Jersey (1st game; 2/19; away)
Atlanta (1st game; 2/19; away)
Phoenix (1st game; 2/19; home)
Vancouver (1st game; 2/21; away)
Nashville (1st game; 2/21; away)
St. Louis (1st game; 2/21; home)
Calgary (1st game; 2/21; away)
Edmonton (1st game; 2/21; home)
Toronto (1st game; 2/22; away)
NY Rangers (1st game; 2/22; home)


GAMES FOR 2/24
CAR @ OTT (G3) - UNDER 5.5 - 4U (A)
COL (G3) @ ATL (G2) - OVER 6 - 6U (A)
COL @ ATL (G2) - OVER 6 - 2U (B)
COL (G3) @ ATL - OVER 6 - 4U (C)
VAN (G3,G1) @ MTL - OVER 6 - 5U (A)
VAN (G1) @ MTL - OVER 6 - 1U (B)
TAM @ EDM (G1) - UNDER 5.5 (A,B,C,D)
CHI @ NAS (G1) - UNDER 5.5 (A,B)
PHX (G2) @ STL (G1) - UNDER 5.5 - 3U (A,B,C,D)
CLB (G2) @ CAL (G1) - UNDER 5.5 - 3U (A,B)

Thanks RMAN!   

I have to do a better job at getting on here daily....

OK, so down to business....If you know the system by now, you should have picked up six series wins on the 24th with:  Colorado, Columbus, Atlanta, Phoenix, St. Louis and Calgary chases.  You should have picked up two more series wins on the 25th with NY Rangers and Toronto (since they just played each other a few nights ago to an OT game).  Ottawa and Vancouver both lost 3-game game chases on the 24th, but both only affected the A system.  NOTE that my post on the 24th has Vancouver's next game mistakenly as a 2nd game chase.  It was actually a 3rd game chase and it lost. 



The last two days
System A  8-2 (-6)
System B  7-0 (+7)
System C  4-0 (+4)
System D  3-0 (+3)


Up to date season series records
System A - 348-48 (+12 Units)
System B - 311-85 (+56 Units)
System C - 180-19 (+47 Units)
System D - 161-38 (+47 Units)


Since there were alot of series wins and 3rd game chases in the last two days, the list has dwindled considerably.  Here are the ongoing chases.

Ongoing chases:
New Jersey (2nd game; 2/19; away)
Vancouver (2nd game; 2/21; away)
Nashville (2nd game; 2/21; away)
Edmonton (2nd game; 2/21; home)
Los Angeles (2nd game; 2/24; away)
Minnesota (1st game; 2/24; home)
NY Rangers (1st game; 2/25; away)
Toronto (1st game; 2/25; home)


System A is in free fall now, so here is some advice based on what I am seeing... The only difference between systems A and B is that third game.  And the whole reason why system B is doing so great is because a lot of the 3rd-game system A chases have been losers.  And system A losses are brutal, compared to system B losses.  Therefore you may wish to stay away from ANY game 3 involving system A only.  19 of the 48 three-game chase losses were home-initiated OT game teams.  That's almost 40%, which is good and the trend holds true at least this year, so continue to play those game three chases involving system C even though they also qualify as a system A play. 

Also, since system B seems to even outperform systems C and D right now, due to a couple of those 19 chase losses coming in the last week, you may wish to pound the game 2 chases for the road-initiator teams (those qualifying for systems A and B).  By doing this, your chances are greater that the system B game will win. 

So recapping.... at this time, try to stay away from the game 3 A-only games and hit the game 2 A,B-only games harder.  Chances are, if a game 2 A,B only game is a loser, then the chase team's next game (the game 3 A-only chase) will lose as well.   I will try to outline these going forward.  RED will indicate A-only game 3's, GREEN will indicate A,B-only game 2's.  Going forward, if I can post everyday, I will try to include the game records for both colors.  But for tracking purposes, the units listed will not change.  Best of luck!!  We will prevail!!


GAMES FOR 2/26
COL @ NJ (G2) - UNDER 5.5 - 2U (A,B)
PHX @ NAS (G2) - UNDER 5.5 - 2U (A,B)
FLA @ NYR (G1) - UNDER 5.5 - 1U (A,B)
TOR (G1) @ NYI - OVER 6 - 1U (A,B,C,D)
CLB @ EDM (G2) - UNDER 5.5 - 2U (A,B,C,D)

GREEN GAMES (0-0)
RED GAMES (0-0)

RESULTS FOR 2/26
COL @ NJ (G2) - UNDER 5.5 - 2U - WINNER (A,B)
PHX @ NAS (G2) - UNDER 5.5 - 2U - WINNER (A,B)
FLA @ NYR (G1) - UNDER 5.5 - 1U - WINNER (A,B)
TOR (G1) @ NYI - OVER 6 - 1U - WINNER (A,B,C,D)
CLB @ EDM (G2) - UNDER 5.5 - 2U - WINNER (A,B,C,D)

This is more like it!  A 5-0 day!!

System A  5-0 (+5)
System B  5-0 (+5)
System C  3-0 (+3)
System D  3-0 (+3)


Up to date season series records
System A - 353-48 (+17 Units)
System B - 316-85 (+61 Units)
System C - 183-19 (+50 Units)
System D - 164-38 (+50 Units)


Ongoing chases:
Vancouver (2nd game; 2/21; away)
Los Angeles (2nd game; 2/24; away)
Minnesota (1st game; 2/24; home)
Buffalo (1st game; 2/26; away)
Carolina (1st game; 2/26; home)
Toronto (1st game; 2/26; away)
NY Islanders (1st game; 2/26; home)


GAMES FOR 2/27
LAK (G2) @ DET - OVER 6 - 2U (A,B)
TBL @ VAN (G2) - Check line - 2U (A,B)
MIN (G1) @ CAL - OVER 5 - 1U (A,B,C,D)

GREEN GAMES (2-0)
RED GAMES (0-0)

Ooops, Sorry C and D tonight went 2-0 each.

System C - 182-19 (+49 Units)
System D - 163-38 (+49 Units)

RESULTS FOR 2/27
LAK (G2) @ DET - OVER 6 - 2U - LOSER (B ONLY)
TBL @ VAN (G2) - UNDER 5.5 - 2U - WINNER (A,B)
MIN (G1) @ CAL - OVER 5 - 1U - PUSH (Come back with G1 next time)

System A  1-0 (+1)
System B  1-1 (-2)


Up to date season series records
System A - 354-48 (+18 Units)
System B - 317-86 (+59 Units)
System C - 182-19 (+49 Units)
System D - 163-38 (+49 Units)


Ongoing chases:
Los Angeles (3rd game; 2/24; away)
Minnesota (1st game; 2/24; home)
Buffalo (1st game; 2/26; away)
Carolina (1st game; 2/26; home)
Toronto (1st game; 2/26; away)
NY Islanders (1st game; 2/26; home)
Montreal (1st game; 2/27; away)
Philadelphia (1st game; 2/27; home)
Pittsburgh (1st game; 2/27; away)
Chicago (1st game; 2/27; home)

5 games on tap that fit the systems.  Let's get 'em tonight.

GAMES FOR 2/28
SJS @ MTL (G1) - UNDER 5.5 - 1U (A,B)
TOR (G1) @ OTT - OVER 6 - 1U (A,B)
BUF (G1) @ NYI (G1) - UNDER 5.5 - 2U (A,B)
BUF @ NYI (G1) - UNDER 5.5 - 1U (C,D)
CAR (G1) @ ATL - OVER 6 - 1U (A,B,C,D)
MIN (G1) @ EDM - OVER 5 - 1U (A,B,C,D)

GAMES FOR 3/1 (Partial list - more may be added)
PHI (G1) @ NJD - 1U (A,B,C,D)
PIT (G1) @ DAL - 1U (A,B)
LAK (G3) @ CHI (G1) - 5U (A)
LAK @ CHI (G1) - 1U (B,C,D)

Here we have an A-only situation where this season we are 18-29 to the correct point total side.  I do not have the stats for this situation when they are playing another team in a C,D type situation.  But by rights, the entire game is flagged.  If it wins, then A gets two wins.

GREEN GAMES (3-1)
RED GAMES (0-0)

RESULTS FOR 2/28
SJS @ MTL (G1) - UNDER 5.5 - 1U - WINNER (A,B)
TOR (G1) @ OTT - OVER 6 - 1U = WINNER (A,B)
BUF (G1) @ NYI (G1) - UNDER 5.5 - WINNER 2U (A,B)
BUF @ NYI (G1) - UNDER 5.5 - 1U - WINNER (C,D)
CAR (G1) @ ATL - OVER 6 - 1U - WINNER (A,B,C,D)
MIN (G1) @ EDM - OVER 5 - 1U - PUSH (Come back with MIN again for G1 next time)

Games go 4-0-1 to the totals.  Here are the system series breakdown from last night...

System A  5-0 (+5)
System B  5-0 (+5)
System C  2-0 (+2)
System D  2-0 (+2)


Up to date season series records
System A - 359-48 (+23 Units)
System B - 322-86 (+64 Units)
System C - 184-19 (+51 Units)
System D - 165-38 (+51 Units)


Ongoing chases:
Los Angeles (3rd game; 2/24; away)
Minnesota (1st game; 2/24; home)
Philadelphia (1st game; 2/27; home)
Pittsburgh (1st game; 2/27; away)
Chicago (1st game; 2/27; home)
Washington (1st game; 2/28; away)
Boston (1st game; 2/28; home)
Toronto (1st game; 2/28; away)
Ottawa (1st game; 2/28; home)


One additional game for today.

GAMES FOR 3/1
PHI (G1) @ NJD - UNDER 5.5 - 1U (A,B,C,D)
FLA @ WAS (G1) - OVER 6 - 1U (A,B)
PIT (G1) @ DAL - Check line - 1U (A,B)
LAK (G3) @ CHI (G1) - UNDER 5.5 - 5U (A)
LAK @ CHI (G1) - UNDER 5.5 - 1U (B,C,D)

Here we have an A-only situation where this season we are 18-29 to the correct point total side.

GREEN GAMES (3-1)
RED GAMES (0-0)

RESULTS FOR 3/1
PHI (G1) @ NJD - UNDER 5.5 - 1U - WINNER (A,B,C,D)
FLA @ WAS (G1) - OVER 6 - 1U - WINNER (A,B)
PIT (G1) @ DAL - UNDER 5.5 - 1U - WINNER (A,B)
LAK (G3) @ CHI (G1) - UNDER 5.5 - 5U - LOSER (A only)

Games go 3-1 to the totals.  A pisser of a game in Chicago, where 5 goals were scored in the first and then scoreless for the next 39+ minutes.  A sucker goal by with 43 seconds to play takes it over and makes it a loser.  As I said, these games just tend to not win this year for whatever reason.  If it were going to be a loser, I'd rather it have been early on than very late.

System A  3-1 (-4)
System B  3-0 (+3)
System C  1-0 (+1)
System D  1-0 (+1)


Up to date season series records
System A - 362-49 (+19 Units)
System B - 325-86 (+67 Units)
System C - 185-19 (+52 Units)
System D - 166-38 (+52 Units)


Ongoing chases:
Minnesota (1st game; 2/24; home)
Chicago (2nd game; 2/27; home)
Boston (1st game; 2/28; home)
Toronto (1st game; 2/28; away)
Ottawa (1st game; 2/28; home)


GAMES FOR 3/2
None

GAMES FOR 3/3 (May be other games)
PHI @ BOS (G1) - 1U (A,B,C,D)
NJD @ TOR (G1) - 1U (A,B)
CAL @ OTT (G1) - 1U (A,B,C,D)
ANA @ CHI (G2) - 2U (A,B,C,D)
MIN (G1) @ VAN - 1U (A,B,C,D)

GREEN GAMES (3-1)
RED GAMES (0-1)

Kangy, 1st off thanks again for the work.. The C system has been doing pretty good for me lately.

Quick question though, why don't you count CHI under the C system when they were the home team in OT with PIT on Fri?