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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Yet another variant for expert's old NHL OT Chase system

    123 ... 678 Next Last»
    usakangy
    elithepunk
    MaddenGuru
    gasman33
    kingofny
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    usakangy
    usakangy
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    Posts: 2894
    Posted: Dec. 27, 2008 - 7:53 AM ET #1

    I decided to open up a new thread for this basic system developed by expert and tracked by gasman.  This system is the plain jane system expertcapper started using before his tweaks to his current system.  Here is a little spinoff from this system. 

    Use the system as stated and use it in the NHL only:

    1)  Wait for an OT/SO game.
    2)  Look at the line on both teams' next games.
    3)  If the o/u line is 5.0 take the OVER.
    4)  If the o/u line is 5.5 take the UNDER
    5)  If the o/u line is 6.0+ take the OVER
    6)  Chase each team for 3 games (using the 1-unit, 2-unit, 4-unit method)

    Here are the added twists...

    7)  If game is a loser, and that game also goes into OT/SO, continue playing old series as normal, but start a NEW series with that team as well.  For instance, if chasing Atlanta for UNDER 5.5 in game 2 of a chase and Atlanta beats Dallas in OT 4-3, the game is a loser.  Play Atlanta for the 3rd game of a chase and, in addition, play Atlanta and Dallas as 1st games of a new chase.

    If you did this from the beginning of the year the series record is 213-22 (+59 units) not factoring the juice.  Furthermore, chasing just a 2-game series, the record is 193-44 (+61 units) not factoring the juice.

    Then apply the next stipulation...

    8)  Chase only teams that played the OT/SO game as the home team.  For example, if Atlanta was hosting Dallas, and the game went into OT/SO, then just play Atlanta in a chase (regardless of whether they are away or home in their next game).

    Doing this in a 3-game chase from the beginning of the season, chasing only teams that were at home during the OT/SO game and applying step 7, the record stands at 108-8 (+52 units) not factoring the juice.  This means chasing the teams that were on the road are just 105-14 (+7 units).  Using the two-game chase and chasing a team that was hosting the OT/SO game, the record is 98-19 (+41 units) not factoring the juice.  Chasing a road team in a 2-game chase is only 95-25 (+20 units). 

    The system also does not take into consideration average goals scored for a team or against a team, so we are not excluding any teams even if they are the top scroing team in the league.

    So I will track each of the four systems and give each a letter as follows:

    System A: 3 GAME ANY TEAM CHASE SERIES (213-22 +59 units)
    System B: 2 GAME ANY TEAM CHASE SERIES (193-44 +61 units)
    System C: 3 GAME HOME TEAM ONLY CHASE SERIES (108-8 +52 units)
    System D: 2 GAME HOME TEAM ONLY CHASE SERIES (98-19 +41 units)



    Teams involved in a chase as of the Christmas break (with the chase # for that team's next game, date the OT game was played and whether team was home or away the day of the OT game):  The teams listed should go hand-in-hand with the open teams from the original system.

    Tampa Bay (game 3; 12/18; Home)
    Calgary (game 2; 12/19; Home)
    Anaheim (game 3; 12/19; Away)
    Edmonton (game 2; 12/19; Home)
    Ottawa (game 2; 12/20; Home)
    Philadelphia (game 2; 12/21; Away)
    Montreal (game 1; 12/21; Home)
    Pittsburgh (game 1; 12/22; Away)
    Buffalo (game 1; 12/22; Home)
    Washington (game 1; 12/23; Away)
    NY Rangers (game 1; 12/23; Away)
    Phoenix (game 1; 12/23; Away)
    Colorado (game 1; 12/23; Home)


    For those wanting to try it, I would suggest jumping in on the game 1's and play very small per dollar units.  Please keep in mind we are just tracking this at this time.

    So the games on 12/26 would be...

    1 unit - Pittsburgh (1) @ New Jersey UNDER - Systems A/B
    2 units - Buffalo (1) @ Washington (1) NL yet - Systems A/B
    1 unit - Buffalo (1) @ Washington NL yet - Systems C/D
    4 units - Tampa Bay (4) @ Florida UNDER - Systems A/C (B/D has already lost)
    2 units - Philadelphia (2) @ Chicago OVER - Systems A/B
    2 units - Edmonton (2) @ Vancouver UNDER - Systems A/B/C/D
    1 unit - Phoenix (1) @ Los Angeles UNDER - Systems A/B


    Remember, we are only tracking.  Big Keith and I are attempting to back test this at least 3-5 years to see if there is validity to these systems.  Thanks man!
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    I decided to open up a new thread for this basic system developed by expert and tracked by gasman.  This system is the plain jane system expertcapper started using before his tweaks to his current system.  Here is a little spinoff from this system. 

    Use the system as stated and use it in the NHL only:

    1)  Wait for an OT/SO game.
    2)  Look at the line on both teams' next games.
    3)  If the o/u line is 5.0 take the OVER.
    4)  If the o/u line is 5.5 take the UNDER
    5)  If the o/u line is 6.0+ take the OVER
    6)  Chase each team for 3 games (using the 1-unit, 2-unit, 4-unit method)

    Here are the added twists...

    7)  If game is a loser, and that game also goes into OT/SO, continue playing old series as normal, but start a NEW series with that team as well.  For instance, if chasing Atlanta for UNDER 5.5 in game 2 of a chase and Atlanta beats Dallas in OT 4-3, the game is a loser.  Play Atlanta for the 3rd game of a chase and, in addition, play Atlanta and Dallas as 1st games of a new chase.

    If you did this from the beginning of the year the series record is 213-22 (+59 units) not factoring the juice.  Furthermore, chasing just a 2-game series, the record is 193-44 (+61 units) not factoring the juice.

    Then apply the next stipulation...

    8)  Chase only teams that played the OT/SO game as the home team.  For example, if Atlanta was hosting Dallas, and the game went into OT/SO, then just play Atlanta in a chase (regardless of whether they are away or home in their next game).

    Doing this in a 3-game chase from the beginning of the season, chasing only teams that were at home during the OT/SO game and applying step 7, the record stands at 108-8 (+52 units) not factoring the juice.  This means chasing the teams that were on the road are just 105-14 (+7 units).  Using the two-game chase and chasing a team that was hosting the OT/SO game, the record is 98-19 (+41 units) not factoring the juice.  Chasing a road team in a 2-game chase is only 95-25 (+20 units). 

    The system also does not take into consideration average goals scored for a team or against a team, so we are not excluding any teams even if they are the top scroing team in the league.

    So I will track each of the four systems and give each a letter as follows:

    System A: 3 GAME ANY TEAM CHASE SERIES (213-22 +59 units)
    System B: 2 GAME ANY TEAM CHASE SERIES (193-44 +61 units)
    System C: 3 GAME HOME TEAM ONLY CHASE SERIES (108-8 +52 units)
    System D: 2 GAME HOME TEAM ONLY CHASE SERIES (98-19 +41 units)



    Teams involved in a chase as of the Christmas break (with the chase # for that team's next game, date the OT game was played and whether team was home or away the day of the OT game):  The teams listed should go hand-in-hand with the open teams from the original system.

    Tampa Bay (game 3; 12/18; Home)
    Calgary (game 2; 12/19; Home)
    Anaheim (game 3; 12/19; Away)
    Edmonton (game 2; 12/19; Home)
    Ottawa (game 2; 12/20; Home)
    Philadelphia (game 2; 12/21; Away)
    Montreal (game 1; 12/21; Home)
    Pittsburgh (game 1; 12/22; Away)
    Buffalo (game 1; 12/22; Home)
    Washington (game 1; 12/23; Away)
    NY Rangers (game 1; 12/23; Away)
    Phoenix (game 1; 12/23; Away)
    Colorado (game 1; 12/23; Home)


    For those wanting to try it, I would suggest jumping in on the game 1's and play very small per dollar units.  Please keep in mind we are just tracking this at this time.

    So the games on 12/26 would be...

    1 unit - Pittsburgh (1) @ New Jersey UNDER - Systems A/B
    2 units - Buffalo (1) @ Washington (1) NL yet - Systems A/B
    1 unit - Buffalo (1) @ Washington NL yet - Systems C/D
    4 units - Tampa Bay (4) @ Florida UNDER - Systems A/C (B/D has already lost)
    2 units - Philadelphia (2) @ Chicago OVER - Systems A/B
    2 units - Edmonton (2) @ Vancouver UNDER - Systems A/B/C/D
    1 unit - Phoenix (1) @ Los Angeles UNDER - Systems A/B


    Remember, we are only tracking.  Big Keith and I are attempting to back test this at least 3-5 years to see if there is validity to these systems.  Thanks man!
     
    usakangy
    usakangy
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    Posts: 2894
    Posted: Dec. 27, 2008 - 8:31 AM ET #2

    Results from 12/26

    1 unit - Pittsburgh (1) @ New Jersey UNDER 5.5 - Systems A/B
    2 units - Buffalo (1) @ Washington (1) OVER 6 - Systems A/B
    1 unit - Buffalo (1) @ Washington OVER 6 - Systems C/D
    4 units - Tampa Bay (4) @ Florida UNDER 5.5 - Systems A/C
    2 units - Philadelphia (2) @ Chicago OVER 6 - Systems A/B
    2 units - Edmonton (2) @ Vancouver UNDER 5.5 - Systems A/B/C/D
    1 unit - Phoenix (1) @ Los Angeles UNDER 5.5 - Systems A/B



    System A picked up series wins with PIT(game 1), EDM(game 2), PHX(game 1) but took a loss on TB(game 3).  Going 3-1 in the series.  For the night, system was even.

    System B picked up series wins with PIT(game 1), EDM(game 2), PHX(game 1).  We lost the 1st game of a BUF(game1) and WAS(game 1) chase.  Series goes 3-0.  For the night, system was +2 units.

    System C picked up series wins with EDM(game 2) but took a loss in the TB(game 3) series.  We lost 1st game of a BUF chase.  Series goes 1-1.  For the night, system was -2 units.

    System D picked up series win with EDM(game 2).  We lost the 1st game of the BUF chase.  Series is 1-0.  For the night, system was +1 units.

    Updating the system records
    NOTE: I will only update a series and its units once the series is over.

    System A: 3 GAME ANY TEAM CHASE SERIES (216-23 +55 units)
    System B: 2 GAME ANY TEAM CHASE SERIES (196-44 +64 units)
    System C: 3 GAME HOME TEAM ONLY CHASE SERIES (109-9 +46 units)
    System D: 2 GAME HOME TEAM ONLY CHASE SERIES (99-19 +42 units)

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    Results from 12/26

    1 unit - Pittsburgh (1) @ New Jersey UNDER 5.5 - Systems A/B
    2 units - Buffalo (1) @ Washington (1) OVER 6 - Systems A/B
    1 unit - Buffalo (1) @ Washington OVER 6 - Systems C/D
    4 units - Tampa Bay (4) @ Florida UNDER 5.5 - Systems A/C
    2 units - Philadelphia (2) @ Chicago OVER 6 - Systems A/B
    2 units - Edmonton (2) @ Vancouver UNDER 5.5 - Systems A/B/C/D
    1 unit - Phoenix (1) @ Los Angeles UNDER 5.5 - Systems A/B



    System A picked up series wins with PIT(game 1), EDM(game 2), PHX(game 1) but took a loss on TB(game 3).  Going 3-1 in the series.  For the night, system was even.

    System B picked up series wins with PIT(game 1), EDM(game 2), PHX(game 1).  We lost the 1st game of a BUF(game1) and WAS(game 1) chase.  Series goes 3-0.  For the night, system was +2 units.

    System C picked up series wins with EDM(game 2) but took a loss in the TB(game 3) series.  We lost 1st game of a BUF chase.  Series goes 1-1.  For the night, system was -2 units.

    System D picked up series win with EDM(game 2).  We lost the 1st game of the BUF chase.  Series is 1-0.  For the night, system was +1 units.

    Updating the system records
    NOTE: I will only update a series and its units once the series is over.

    System A: 3 GAME ANY TEAM CHASE SERIES (216-23 +55 units)
    System B: 2 GAME ANY TEAM CHASE SERIES (196-44 +64 units)
    System C: 3 GAME HOME TEAM ONLY CHASE SERIES (109-9 +46 units)
    System D: 2 GAME HOME TEAM ONLY CHASE SERIES (99-19 +42 units)

     
    usakangy
    usakangy
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    Posts: 2894
    Posted: Dec. 27, 2008 - 8:47 AM ET #3

    Teams we continue to track (note we add TB and FLA again):

    Calgary (game 2; 12/19; Home)
    Anaheim (game 3; 12/19; Away)
    Ottawa (game 2; 12/20; Home)
    Philadelphia (game 2; 12/21; Away)
    Montreal (game 1; 12/21; Home)
    Buffalo (game 2; 12/22; Home)
    Washington (game 2; 12/23; Away)
    NY Rangers (game 1; 12/23; Away)
    Colorado (game 1; 12/23; Home)

    Tampa Bay (game 1; 12/26; Away)
    Florida (game 1; 12/26; Home)

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    Teams we continue to track (note we add TB and FLA again):

    Calgary (game 2; 12/19; Home)
    Anaheim (game 3; 12/19; Away)
    Ottawa (game 2; 12/20; Home)
    Philadelphia (game 2; 12/21; Away)
    Montreal (game 1; 12/21; Home)
    Buffalo (game 2; 12/22; Home)
    Washington (game 2; 12/23; Away)
    NY Rangers (game 1; 12/23; Away)
    Colorado (game 1; 12/23; Home)

    Tampa Bay (game 1; 12/26; Away)
    Florida (game 1; 12/26; Home)

     
    usakangy
    usakangy
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2008 - 9:03 AM ET #4

    Lots of games to track tonight as all teams in our watch list except one will be playing.

    System A games only (game chase in parenthesis)
    ANA(3)/DAL UND 5.5 - 4u

    System A and B games (game chase in parenthesis)
    CAL(2)/OTT(2) UND 5.5 - 4u
    PHI(2)/CLB UND 5.5 - 2u
    MON(1)/PIT OVR 6 - 1u
    NYI/BUF(2) OVR 6 - 2u
    NJ/NYR(1) OVR 5 - 1u
    DET/COL(1) UND 5.5 - 1u
    FLA(1)/TB(1) OVR 5 - 2u


    System C and D games (game chase in parenthesis)
    CAL(2)/OTT(2) UND 5.5 - 4u
    MON(1)/PIT OVR 6 - 1u
    NYI/BUF(2) OVR 6 - 2u
    DET/COL(1) UND 5.5 - 1u
    FLA(1)/TB OVR 5 - 1u



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    Lots of games to track tonight as all teams in our watch list except one will be playing.

    System A games only (game chase in parenthesis)
    ANA(3)/DAL UND 5.5 - 4u

    System A and B games (game chase in parenthesis)
    CAL(2)/OTT(2) UND 5.5 - 4u
    PHI(2)/CLB UND 5.5 - 2u
    MON(1)/PIT OVR 6 - 1u
    NYI/BUF(2) OVR 6 - 2u
    NJ/NYR(1) OVR 5 - 1u
    DET/COL(1) UND 5.5 - 1u
    FLA(1)/TB(1) OVR 5 - 2u


    System C and D games (game chase in parenthesis)
    CAL(2)/OTT(2) UND 5.5 - 4u
    MON(1)/PIT OVR 6 - 1u
    NYI/BUF(2) OVR 6 - 2u
    DET/COL(1) UND 5.5 - 1u
    FLA(1)/TB OVR 5 - 1u



     
    elithepunk
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2008 - 10:16 AM ET #5

    very interesting variation ... will keep a close look at your tracking
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    very interesting variation ... will keep a close look at your tracking
     
    MaddenGuru
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2008 - 10:27 AM ET #6

    Kangy you are the best man. I will hop on this!
     
    How are the 2h football systems doing?
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    Kangy you are the best man. I will hop on this!
     
    How are the 2h football systems doing?
     
    MaddenGuru
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2008 - 2:13 PM ET #7

    I am going to copy a post that I left in Experts Spoiler thread a couple of moments ago to stress why I am going to use this system instead of the tweaked system and why I think it makes sense.:
     
    QUOTE Originally Posted by expertcapper:

    Guys I can not stress enough be careful with these totals, be very choosy in playing these and do your calculations. Its starting to even out so watch what you play because it is getting very tricky.
    We got 2 more wins making it 62-2 with the Islanders falling again.

    I agree with you Expert - and you too Eli...these games are becoming more difficult to hit especially with the books setting a lot of over/unders at 6 now. Also making it difficult is deciding what teams are over teams and how to treat them. Especially when over and under teams are playing and who takes precedence.

    Now with Isles we have 3 losses...while I still have substantial profit with this system it seems as if the original system would have been more profitable if left unchanged (see gasman's thread tracking that one). Also interesting is Kangy's thread which tracks the original system with some interesting results back dated for awhile.  I think I might use the original system as this seems to have the most consistent backtested positive results.  It seems to me that the general public likes betting the over so the lines are tailored to hurt over bettors, which is probably a contributing reason to why the under system is a successful system.

    Best of Luck as always to everyones plays!

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    I am going to copy a post that I left in Experts Spoiler thread a couple of moments ago to stress why I am going to use this system instead of the tweaked system and why I think it makes sense.:
     
    QUOTE Originally Posted by expertcapper:

    Guys I can not stress enough be careful with these totals, be very choosy in playing these and do your calculations. Its starting to even out so watch what you play because it is getting very tricky.
    We got 2 more wins making it 62-2 with the Islanders falling again.

    I agree with you Expert - and you too Eli...these games are becoming more difficult to hit especially with the books setting a lot of over/unders at 6 now. Also making it difficult is deciding what teams are over teams and how to treat them. Especially when over and under teams are playing and who takes precedence.

    Now with Isles we have 3 losses...while I still have substantial profit with this system it seems as if the original system would have been more profitable if left unchanged (see gasman's thread tracking that one). Also interesting is Kangy's thread which tracks the original system with some interesting results back dated for awhile.  I think I might use the original system as this seems to have the most consistent backtested positive results.  It seems to me that the general public likes betting the over so the lines are tailored to hurt over bettors, which is probably a contributing reason to why the under system is a successful system.

    Best of Luck as always to everyones plays!

     
    gasman33
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2008 - 2:29 PM ET #8

    ..........
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    ..........
     
    MaddenGuru
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2008 - 3:46 PM ET #9

    Quote Originally Posted by usakangy:

    Lots of games to track tonight as all teams in our watch list except one will be playing.

    System A games only (game chase in parenthesis)
    ANA(3)/DAL UND 5.5 - 4u

    System A and B games (game chase in parenthesis)
    CAL(2)/OTT(2) UND 5.5 - 4u
    PHI(2)/CLB UND 5.5 - 2u
    MON(1)/PIT OVR 6 - 1u
    NYI/BUF(2) OVR 6 - 2u
    NJ/NYR(1) OVR 5 - 1u
    DET/COL(1) UND 5.5 - 1u
    FLA(1)/TB(1) OVR 5 - 2u


    System C and D games (game chase in parenthesis)
    CAL(2)/OTT(2) UND 5.5 - 4u
    MON(1)/PIT OVR 6 - 1u
    NYI/BUF(2) OVR 6 - 2u
    DET/COL(1) UND 5.5 - 1u
    FLA(1)/TB OVR 5 - 1u



    Kangy for the units do we combine the units for each game? For example would the under in Calgary be an 8 unit play?

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    Quote Originally Posted by usakangy:

    Lots of games to track tonight as all teams in our watch list except one will be playing.

    System A games only (game chase in parenthesis)
    ANA(3)/DAL UND 5.5 - 4u

    System A and B games (game chase in parenthesis)
    CAL(2)/OTT(2) UND 5.5 - 4u
    PHI(2)/CLB UND 5.5 - 2u
    MON(1)/PIT OVR 6 - 1u
    NYI/BUF(2) OVR 6 - 2u
    NJ/NYR(1) OVR 5 - 1u
    DET/COL(1) UND 5.5 - 1u
    FLA(1)/TB(1) OVR 5 - 2u


    System C and D games (game chase in parenthesis)
    CAL(2)/OTT(2) UND 5.5 - 4u
    MON(1)/PIT OVR 6 - 1u
    NYI/BUF(2) OVR 6 - 2u
    DET/COL(1) UND 5.5 - 1u
    FLA(1)/TB OVR 5 - 1u



    Kangy for the units do we combine the units for each game? For example would the under in Calgary be an 8 unit play?

     
    MaddenGuru
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2008 - 4:03 PM ET #10

    Nevermind Kang I got the hang of it...
     
    I think what I might do to minimize risk is follow system B and chase for 2 games for everyone, and then only chase for a 3rd game if they are a home team chase falling into system C. This way it kind of minimizes the amount of large bet game 3's to the games which have a higher system winning percentage.
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    Nevermind Kang I got the hang of it...
     
    I think what I might do to minimize risk is follow system B and chase for 2 games for everyone, and then only chase for a 3rd game if they are a home team chase falling into system C. This way it kind of minimizes the amount of large bet game 3's to the games which have a higher system winning percentage.
     
    MaddenGuru
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2008 - 4:35 PM ET #11

    Quote Originally Posted by usakangy:

    Teams we continue to track (note we add TB and FLA again):

    Calgary (game 2; 12/19; Home)
    Anaheim (game 3; 12/19; Away)
    Ottawa (game 2; 12/20; Home)
    Philadelphia (game 2; 12/21; Away)
    Montreal (game 1; 12/21; Home)
    Buffalo (game 2; 12/22; Home)
    Washington (game 2; 12/23; Away)
    NY Rangers (game 1; 12/23; Away)
    Colorado (game 1; 12/23; Home)

    Tampa Bay (game 1; 12/26; Away)
    Florida (game 1; 12/26; Home)

    i thought rangers were home this game?

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    Quote Originally Posted by usakangy:

    Teams we continue to track (note we add TB and FLA again):

    Calgary (game 2; 12/19; Home)
    Anaheim (game 3; 12/19; Away)
    Ottawa (game 2; 12/20; Home)
    Philadelphia (game 2; 12/21; Away)
    Montreal (game 1; 12/21; Home)
    Buffalo (game 2; 12/22; Home)
    Washington (game 2; 12/23; Away)
    NY Rangers (game 1; 12/23; Away)
    Colorado (game 1; 12/23; Home)

    Tampa Bay (game 1; 12/26; Away)
    Florida (game 1; 12/26; Home)

    i thought rangers were home this game?

     
    usakangy
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2008 - 11:22 PM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by MaddenGuru:

    Kangy for the units do we combine the units for each game? For example would the under in Calgary be an 8 unit play?


    Madden, yes you would combine the units.  But in this case, Calgary on a 2nd game chase is for 2 units and same is true for Ottawa, making this a 4 unit play.

    About the NY Rangers being home on 12/23, you are indeed correct.  The Rangers OVER hit tonight as well.  I am getting confused already!  LOL  Thanks man!!

    Chasing everyone for the 2 game series and then playing the third on the team that was the home team is great idea.  Looking up that record, the third games are not that good percentage-wise, somewhere around 11-8 now.  Also, you will still be in the same boat, per se, if both teams on three-game chases were top play each other.  Now you will have an 8 unit game at the max.

    Thanksfor posting that info about the original system.  Somehow some things are better left untweaked in the long run.

    In doing some initial backtesting for last season, I noticed the system I have outlined is not fairing as well, as of this day last season.  I am noticing a lot more 5.0 and 6.0 lines last season as compared to this season and a majority of those games are hitting the UNDER.  Most of the 5.5 lines are hitting OVERS.  I am still backtesting... 

    Preliminary results......
    from beginning of season to 12/31/07

    System A is 182-25 (+7 units)
    System B is 149-60 (-31 units)
    System C is 92-11 (+15 units)
    System D is 76-28 (-8 units)

    Most of the game threes killed us last year.  I will continue to backtest the remainder of the season.  Maybe, the lines will smooth out.

    System C is 76-28
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    Quote Originally Posted by MaddenGuru:

    Kangy for the units do we combine the units for each game? For example would the under in Calgary be an 8 unit play?


    Madden, yes you would combine the units.  But in this case, Calgary on a 2nd game chase is for 2 units and same is true for Ottawa, making this a 4 unit play.

    About the NY Rangers being home on 12/23, you are indeed correct.  The Rangers OVER hit tonight as well.  I am getting confused already!  LOL  Thanks man!!

    Chasing everyone for the 2 game series and then playing the third on the team that was the home team is great idea.  Looking up that record, the third games are not that good percentage-wise, somewhere around 11-8 now.  Also, you will still be in the same boat, per se, if both teams on three-game chases were top play each other.  Now you will have an 8 unit game at the max.

    Thanksfor posting that info about the original system.  Somehow some things are better left untweaked in the long run.

    In doing some initial backtesting for last season, I noticed the system I have outlined is not fairing as well, as of this day last season.  I am noticing a lot more 5.0 and 6.0 lines last season as compared to this season and a majority of those games are hitting the UNDER.  Most of the 5.5 lines are hitting OVERS.  I am still backtesting... 

    Preliminary results......
    from beginning of season to 12/31/07

    System A is 182-25 (+7 units)
    System B is 149-60 (-31 units)
    System C is 92-11 (+15 units)
    System D is 76-28 (-8 units)

    Most of the game threes killed us last year.  I will continue to backtest the remainder of the season.  Maybe, the lines will smooth out.

    System C is 76-28
     
    usakangy
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    Posted: Dec. 27, 2008 - 11:38 PM ET #13

    Results for 12/27

    System A games only (game chase in parenthesis)
    ANA(3)/DAL UND 5.5 - 4u  (SERIES LOSS)

    System A and B games (game chase in parenthesis)
    CAL(2)/OTT(2) UND 5.5 - 4u  (IN PROGRESS)
    PHI(2)/CLB UND 5.5 - 2u  (SERIES WIN)
    MON(1)/PIT OVR 6 - 1u  (GM 1 LOSS)
    NYI/BUF(2) OVR 6 - 2u  (SERIES WIN)
    NJ/NYR(1) OVR 5 - 1u  (SERIES WIN)
    DET/COL(1) UND 5.5 - 1u  (GM 1 LOSS)
    FLA(1)/TB(1) OVR 5 - 2u  (SERIES WIN)
     

    System C and D games (game chase in parenthesis)
    CAL(2)/OTT(2) UND 5.5 - 4u  (IN PROGRESS)
    MON(1)/PIT OVR 6 - 1u  (GM 1 LOSS)
    NYI/BUF(2) OVR 6 - 2u  (SERIES WIN)
    NJ/NYR(1) OVR 5 - 1u  (added in due to my negligence) (SERIES WIN)
    DET/COL(1) UND 5.5 - 1u  (GM 1 LOSS)
    FLA(1)/TB OVR 5 - 1u  (SERIES WIN)


    I will update the records in the morning.  Calgary and Ottawa now not looking so good.... When I started typing this it was OTT 2-0, now it is CAL 3-2... 4 goals in about a 4-minute span in the 2nd period.  


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    Results for 12/27

    System A games only (game chase in parenthesis)
    ANA(3)/DAL UND 5.5 - 4u  (SERIES LOSS)

    System A and B games (game chase in parenthesis)
    CAL(2)/OTT(2) UND 5.5 - 4u  (IN PROGRESS)
    PHI(2)/CLB UND 5.5 - 2u  (SERIES WIN)
    MON(1)/PIT OVR 6 - 1u  (GM 1 LOSS)
    NYI/BUF(2) OVR 6 - 2u  (SERIES WIN)
    NJ/NYR(1) OVR 5 - 1u  (SERIES WIN)
    DET/COL(1) UND 5.5 - 1u  (GM 1 LOSS)
    FLA(1)/TB(1) OVR 5 - 2u  (SERIES WIN)
     

    System C and D games (game chase in parenthesis)
    CAL(2)/OTT(2) UND 5.5 - 4u  (IN PROGRESS)
    MON(1)/PIT OVR 6 - 1u  (GM 1 LOSS)
    NYI/BUF(2) OVR 6 - 2u  (SERIES WIN)
    NJ/NYR(1) OVR 5 - 1u  (added in due to my negligence) (SERIES WIN)
    DET/COL(1) UND 5.5 - 1u  (GM 1 LOSS)
    FLA(1)/TB OVR 5 - 1u  (SERIES WIN)


    I will update the records in the morning.  Calgary and Ottawa now not looking so good.... When I started typing this it was OTT 2-0, now it is CAL 3-2... 4 goals in about a 4-minute span in the 2nd period.  


     
    usakangy
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    Posted: Dec. 29, 2008 - 8:04 PM ET #14

    Update through 12/28/08

    SYSTEM A - 222-24 (+54 UNITS)
    SYSTEM B - 202 46 (+64 UNITS)
    SYSTEM C - 113-9 (+50 UNITS)
    SYSTEM D - 103-20 (+43 UNITS)

    Open teams:
    Calgary (3rd game; 12/19; home)
    Montreal (2nd game; 12/21; home)
    Washington (3rd game; 12/23; away)
    Colorado (2nd game; 12/23; home)
    NY Islanders (1st game; 12/27; away)
    Buffalo (1st game; 12/27; home)
    Anaheim (2nd game; 12/27; away)
    Dallas (1st game; 12/27; home)
    San Jose (1st game; 12/27; away)
    St. Louis (2nd game; 12/27; home)
    Detroit (1st game; 12/28; away)
    Colorado (1st game; 12/28; home) **

    **-Colorado has two open series


    Games of 12/29 - Systems A/B
    NYI(gm 1)/NYR - 1 unit 
    MON(gm 2)/FLA - 2 unit
    SJ(gm 1)/DAL(gm 1) - 2 unit
    NAS/COL(gm 2 and gm 1) - 3 unit

    Games of 12/29 - Systems C/D
    MON(gm 2)/FLA - 2 unit
    SJ/DAL(gm 1) - 1 unit
    NAS/COL(gm 2 and gm 1) - 3 unit



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    Update through 12/28/08

    SYSTEM A - 222-24 (+54 UNITS)
    SYSTEM B - 202 46 (+64 UNITS)
    SYSTEM C - 113-9 (+50 UNITS)
    SYSTEM D - 103-20 (+43 UNITS)

    Open teams:
    Calgary (3rd game; 12/19; home)
    Montreal (2nd game; 12/21; home)
    Washington (3rd game; 12/23; away)
    Colorado (2nd game; 12/23; home)
    NY Islanders (1st game; 12/27; away)
    Buffalo (1st game; 12/27; home)
    Anaheim (2nd game; 12/27; away)
    Dallas (1st game; 12/27; home)
    San Jose (1st game; 12/27; away)
    St. Louis (2nd game; 12/27; home)
    Detroit (1st game; 12/28; away)
    Colorado (1st game; 12/28; home) **

    **-Colorado has two open series


    Games of 12/29 - Systems A/B
    NYI(gm 1)/NYR - 1 unit 
    MON(gm 2)/FLA - 2 unit
    SJ(gm 1)/DAL(gm 1) - 2 unit
    NAS/COL(gm 2 and gm 1) - 3 unit

    Games of 12/29 - Systems C/D
    MON(gm 2)/FLA - 2 unit
    SJ/DAL(gm 1) - 1 unit
    NAS/COL(gm 2 and gm 1) - 3 unit



     
    usakangy
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    Posted: Dec. 29, 2008 - 8:12 PM ET #15

    Updated games for the 12/29 (bolds teams are playing tonight)

    Open teams:
    Calgary (3rd game; 12/19; home)
    Montreal (2nd game; 12/21; home)
    Washington (3rd game; 12/23; away)
    Colorado (2nd game; 12/23; home)
    NY Islanders (1st game; 12/27; away)
    Buffalo (1st game; 12/27; home)
    Anaheim (2nd game; 12/27; away)
    Dallas (1st game; 12/27; home)
    San Jose (1st game; 12/27; away)
    St. Louis (2nd game; 12/27; home)
    Detroit (1st game; 12/28; away)
    Colorado (1st game; 12/28; home) **


    **-Colorado has two open series


    Games of 12/29 - Systems A/B
    NYI(gm 1)/NYR UNDER 5.5 - 1 unit 
    MON(gm 2)/FLA UNDER 5.5 - 2 unit
    SJ(gm 1)/DAL(gm 1) UNDER 5.5 - 2 unit
    NAS/COL(gm 2 and gm 1) UNDER 5.5 - 3 unit

    Games of 12/29 - System A only
    MIN/CAL(gm 3) OVER 5 - 4 unit


    Games of 12/29 - Systems C/D
    MON(gm 2)/FLA UNDER 5.5 - 2 unit
    SJ/DAL(gm 1) UNDER 5.5 - 1 unit
    NAS/COL(gm 2 and gm 1) UNDER 5.5 - 3 unit


    Games of 12/29 - System C only
    MIN/CAL(gm 3) OVER 5 - 4 unit
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    Updated games for the 12/29 (bolds teams are playing tonight)

    Open teams:
    Calgary (3rd game; 12/19; home)
    Montreal (2nd game; 12/21; home)
    Washington (3rd game; 12/23; away)
    Colorado (2nd game; 12/23; home)
    NY Islanders (1st game; 12/27; away)
    Buffalo (1st game; 12/27; home)
    Anaheim (2nd game; 12/27; away)
    Dallas (1st game; 12/27; home)
    San Jose (1st game; 12/27; away)
    St. Louis (2nd game; 12/27; home)
    Detroit (1st game; 12/28; away)
    Colorado (1st game; 12/28; home) **


    **-Colorado has two open series


    Games of 12/29 - Systems A/B
    NYI(gm 1)/NYR UNDER 5.5 - 1 unit 
    MON(gm 2)/FLA UNDER 5.5 - 2 unit
    SJ(gm 1)/DAL(gm 1) UNDER 5.5 - 2 unit
    NAS/COL(gm 2 and gm 1) UNDER 5.5 - 3 unit

    Games of 12/29 - System A only
    MIN/CAL(gm 3) OVER 5 - 4 unit


    Games of 12/29 - Systems C/D
    MON(gm 2)/FLA UNDER 5.5 - 2 unit
    SJ/DAL(gm 1) UNDER 5.5 - 1 unit
    NAS/COL(gm 2 and gm 1) UNDER 5.5 - 3 unit


    Games of 12/29 - System C only
    MIN/CAL(gm 3) OVER 5 - 4 unit
     
    usakangy
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2008 - 7:39 AM ET #16

    Results for 12/29
    NYI(gm 1)/NYR UNDER 5.5
    MON(gm 2)/FLA UNDER 5.5
    SJ(gm 1)/DAL(gm 1) UNDER 5.5
    NAS/COL(gm 2 and gm 1) UNDER 5.5
    MIN/CAL(gm 3) OVER 5

    -8 UNITS on the day


    SYSTEM A - 2 series wins (San Jose, Dallas), 1 series loss (Calgary)  Record now 224-25 (+49 UNITS)

    SYSTEM B -  2 series wins (San Jose, Dallas), 2 series losses (Montreal, Colorado).  Record now 204-48 (+60 UNITS)

    SYSTEM C - 1 series win (Dallas), 1 series loss (Calgary)  Record now 114-10 (+44 UNITS)

    SYSTEM D - 1 series win (Dallas), 2 series losses (Montreal, Colorado).  Record now 104-22 (+38 UNITS)

    Open teams:
    Montreal (3rd game; 12/21; home)
    Washington (3rd game; 12/23; away)
    Colorado (3rd game; 12/23; home)
    NY Islanders (2nd game; 12/27; away)
    Buffalo (1st game; 12/27; home)
    Anaheim (2nd game; 12/27; away)
    St. Louis (2nd game; 12/27; home)
    Detroit (1st game; 12/28; away)
    Colorado (2nd game; 12/28; home)


    Games for 12/30
    WAS(gm 3) @ BUF(gm 1) OVER 6 - 5 unit  (A only)
    WAS @ BUF(gm 1) OVER 6 - 1 unit (B, C, D only)
    CHI @ DET(gm 1) OVER 6 - 1 unit  (A, B only)
    MON (gm 3) @ TB UNDER 5.5 - 4 unit  (A, C only)
    NJ @ STL(gm 2) UNDER 5.5 - 2 unit  (A, B, C, D)
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    Results for 12/29
    NYI(gm 1)/NYR UNDER 5.5
    MON(gm 2)/FLA UNDER 5.5
    SJ(gm 1)/DAL(gm 1) UNDER 5.5
    NAS/COL(gm 2 and gm 1) UNDER 5.5
    MIN/CAL(gm 3) OVER 5

    -8 UNITS on the day


    SYSTEM A - 2 series wins (San Jose, Dallas), 1 series loss (Calgary)  Record now 224-25 (+49 UNITS)

    SYSTEM B -  2 series wins (San Jose, Dallas), 2 series losses (Montreal, Colorado).  Record now 204-48 (+60 UNITS)

    SYSTEM C - 1 series win (Dallas), 1 series loss (Calgary)  Record now 114-10 (+44 UNITS)

    SYSTEM D - 1 series win (Dallas), 2 series losses (Montreal, Colorado).  Record now 104-22 (+38 UNITS)

    Open teams:
    Montreal (3rd game; 12/21; home)
    Washington (3rd game; 12/23; away)
    Colorado (3rd game; 12/23; home)
    NY Islanders (2nd game; 12/27; away)
    Buffalo (1st game; 12/27; home)
    Anaheim (2nd game; 12/27; away)
    St. Louis (2nd game; 12/27; home)
    Detroit (1st game; 12/28; away)
    Colorado (2nd game; 12/28; home)


    Games for 12/30
    WAS(gm 3) @ BUF(gm 1) OVER 6 - 5 unit  (A only)
    WAS @ BUF(gm 1) OVER 6 - 1 unit (B, C, D only)
    CHI @ DET(gm 1) OVER 6 - 1 unit  (A, B only)
    MON (gm 3) @ TB UNDER 5.5 - 4 unit  (A, C only)
    NJ @ STL(gm 2) UNDER 5.5 - 2 unit  (A, B, C, D)
     
    gasman33
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2008 - 12:36 PM ET #17

    ...hey kangyusa...I was looking at the point determinations for the Over/ Under bets...like Over @5, Under @ 5.5, Over @ 6...
     
     
    ....just since 12/2 up until now...
    ...if line is 5...over hit 3 outta 4 games...75%
    ...if line is 5.5...under hit 32 outta 62 games...51.6%
    ...if line is 6...Over hit 8 outta 14...57%
     
    ...if you took OVER on all games...41-39...51.3%
    obviously all UNDERs is a smaller winner...
     
    ...if you only took Over 5 & Over 6 bets...61% winner
     
    just goofing around with numbers...
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    ...hey kangyusa...I was looking at the point determinations for the Over/ Under bets...like Over @5, Under @ 5.5, Over @ 6...
     
     
    ....just since 12/2 up until now...
    ...if line is 5...over hit 3 outta 4 games...75%
    ...if line is 5.5...under hit 32 outta 62 games...51.6%
    ...if line is 6...Over hit 8 outta 14...57%
     
    ...if you took OVER on all games...41-39...51.3%
    obviously all UNDERs is a smaller winner...
     
    ...if you only took Over 5 & Over 6 bets...61% winner
     
    just goofing around with numbers...
     
    usakangy
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2008 - 6:51 PM ET #18

    Gasman, feel free to butcher the numbers.  One thing I noticed was in the first half of last year (up until Christmas break), the system did not do as good as it did the first half this year.  I am seeing the bucking of a trend here so far this season.  The system is great this year up until Christmas break.  Since then, I have noticed a few more of those 6 lines just in the few days since Christmas, and most of those are going under.  We've had something like a series record of 10-3 on the SYSTEM A since Christmas break (-11 UNITS or so).  I hope this is not a trend that will continue, otherwise, we may have to watch the first few weeks of each half of the season to see if it is worth playing the system as is, or play everything opposite lol.  I am still working on last season's stats.  At the rate I am going, it may take the rest of this season to complete.  But I am home tonight and will work on a month or two tonight from last season.
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    Gasman, feel free to butcher the numbers.  One thing I noticed was in the first half of last year (up until Christmas break), the system did not do as good as it did the first half this year.  I am seeing the bucking of a trend here so far this season.  The system is great this year up until Christmas break.  Since then, I have noticed a few more of those 6 lines just in the few days since Christmas, and most of those are going under.  We've had something like a series record of 10-3 on the SYSTEM A since Christmas break (-11 UNITS or so).  I hope this is not a trend that will continue, otherwise, we may have to watch the first few weeks of each half of the season to see if it is worth playing the system as is, or play everything opposite lol.  I am still working on last season's stats.  At the rate I am going, it may take the rest of this season to complete.  But I am home tonight and will work on a month or two tonight from last season.
     
    usakangy
    usakangy
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2008 - 10:21 PM ET #19

    Here are the numbers from last season.  The stipulation will be that if a game goes into OT late in the season, we will NOT start a new chase on the team if there are less than 5 games remaining.  Also, do not play a team on multiple series at the end of the season if that team has less than 8 games remaining. 

    The season started out slowly, most 5 and 6 line games were going under and a lot of the 5.5 games were going over... The first half of the season breaks down this way....

    System A: In the 3-game ANY team chase, series went 182-25 (+7 UNITS)
    System B: In the 2-game ANY team chase, series went 149-60 (-31 UNITS)
    System C: In the 3-game HOME team chase, series went 92-11 (15 UNITS)
    System D: In the 2-game HOME team chase, series went 76-28 (-8 UNITS)


    In the second half of the season, most of the 5.5 lines were hitting under and there were less of the 5.0 and 6.0 lines, a MUCH better record was attained.  There were a lot of pushes in this half of the season at 5.0 (3-2 was a common score, most going into OT).

    System A: In the 3-game ANY team chase, series went 268-24 (+100 UNITS)
    System B: In the 2-game ANY team chase, series went 236-55 (+71 UNITS)
    System C: In the 3-game HOME team chase, series went 132-13 (+41 UNITS)
    System D: In the 2-game HOME team chase, series went 121-24 (+49 UNITS)


    Most of the System A wins came late in the season feuled by an incredible 42-2 series run (+28 UNITS) in March to close the season)


    Putting this altogether:
    System A was 450-49 (+107 UNITS)
    System B was 385-115 (+40 UNITS)
    System C was 224-24 (+56 UNITS)
    System D was 197-52 (+41 UNITS)


    Breakdown by month (System A only - by units)
    October '07 (+18 UNITS)
    November '07 (-17 UNITS)
    December '07 (+6 UNITS)
    January '08 (+31 UNITS)
    February '08 (+35 UNITS)
    March '08 (+34 UNITS)
    Total '07-'08... +107 UNITS




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    Here are the numbers from last season.  The stipulation will be that if a game goes into OT late in the season, we will NOT start a new chase on the team if there are less than 5 games remaining.  Also, do not play a team on multiple series at the end of the season if that team has less than 8 games remaining. 

    The season started out slowly, most 5 and 6 line games were going under and a lot of the 5.5 games were going over... The first half of the season breaks down this way....

    System A: In the 3-game ANY team chase, series went 182-25 (+7 UNITS)
    System B: In the 2-game ANY team chase, series went 149-60 (-31 UNITS)
    System C: In the 3-game HOME team chase, series went 92-11 (15 UNITS)
    System D: In the 2-game HOME team chase, series went 76-28 (-8 UNITS)


    In the second half of the season, most of the 5.5 lines were hitting under and there were less of the 5.0 and 6.0 lines, a MUCH better record was attained.  There were a lot of pushes in this half of the season at 5.0 (3-2 was a common score, most going into OT).

    System A: In the 3-game ANY team chase, series went 268-24 (+100 UNITS)
    System B: In the 2-game ANY team chase, series went 236-55 (+71 UNITS)
    System C: In the 3-game HOME team chase, series went 132-13 (+41 UNITS)
    System D: In the 2-game HOME team chase, series went 121-24 (+49 UNITS)


    Most of the System A wins came late in the season feuled by an incredible 42-2 series run (+28 UNITS) in March to close the season)


    Putting this altogether:
    System A was 450-49 (+107 UNITS)
    System B was 385-115 (+40 UNITS)
    System C was 224-24 (+56 UNITS)
    System D was 197-52 (+41 UNITS)


    Breakdown by month (System A only - by units)
    October '07 (+18 UNITS)
    November '07 (-17 UNITS)
    December '07 (+6 UNITS)
    January '08 (+31 UNITS)
    February '08 (+35 UNITS)
    March '08 (+34 UNITS)
    Total '07-'08... +107 UNITS




     
    usakangy
    usakangy
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2008 - 10:53 PM ET #20

    Results for 12/30
    WAS(gm 3) @ BUF(gm 1) OVER 6 - 5 unit  (A only)  PUSH
    WAS @ BUF(gm 1) OVER 6 - 1 unit (B, C, D only)  PUSH
    CHI @ DET(gm 1) OVER 6 - 1 unit  (A, B only)  LOSS (-1 u)
    MON (gm 3) @ TB UNDER 5.5 - 4 unit  (A, C only)  WIN (+4 u)
    NJ @ STL(gm 2) UNDER 5.5 - 2 unit  (A, B, C, D)  LOSS (-2 u)


    SYSTEM A - 1 series win (Montreal)  Record now 225-25 (+50 UNITS)
    SYSTEM B - 1 series win (Montreal), 1 series loss (St. Louis).  Record now 205-49 (+58 UNITS)
    SYSTEM C - 1 series win (Montreal)  Record now 115-10 (+45 UNITS)
    SYSTEM D - 1 series win (Montreal), 1 series loss (St. Louis).  Record now 105-23 (+36 UNITS)

    Open teams:
    Washington (3rd game; 12/23; away)
    Colorado (3rd game; 12/23; home)
    NY Islanders (2nd game; 12/27; away)
    Buffalo (1st game; 12/27; home)
    Anaheim (2nd game; 12/27; away)
    St. Louis (3rd game; 12/27; home)
    Detroit (2nd game; 12/28; away)
    Colorado (2nd game; 12/28; home)
    Atlanta (1st game; 12/30; away)
    Toronto (1st game; 12/30; home)
    Montreal (1st game; 12/30; away)
    Tampa Bay (1st game; 12/30; away)
    More games may be added - depending on how the late games turn out.


    We pushed our Washington game 3 chase and our Buffalo game 1 chase, so we will chase the same games next time.  We lost our Detroit game 1 chase and St. Louis game 2 chase, so we now chase games 2 and 3 respectively.  We add Atlanta, Toronto, Montreal and Tampa Bay to our chase list.

    Known games for 12/31
    FLA @ NYI (gm 2) - 2 unit
    ATL (gm 1) @ CAR - 1 unit
    COL (gm 3 & gm 1) @ PHO - 5 unit
    CLB @ ANA (gm 2) - 2 unit

    Possible games
    EDM @ CAL - 1 unit
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    Results for 12/30
    WAS(gm 3) @ BUF(gm 1) OVER 6 - 5 unit  (A only)  PUSH
    WAS @ BUF(gm 1) OVER 6 - 1 unit (B, C, D only)  PUSH
    CHI @ DET(gm 1) OVER 6 - 1 unit  (A, B only)  LOSS (-1 u)
    MON (gm 3) @ TB UNDER 5.5 - 4 unit  (A, C only)  WIN (+4 u)
    NJ @ STL(gm 2) UNDER 5.5 - 2 unit  (A, B, C, D)  LOSS (-2 u)


    SYSTEM A - 1 series win (Montreal)  Record now 225-25 (+50 UNITS)
    SYSTEM B - 1 series win (Montreal), 1 series loss (St. Louis).  Record now 205-49 (+58 UNITS)
    SYSTEM C - 1 series win (Montreal)  Record now 115-10 (+45 UNITS)
    SYSTEM D - 1 series win (Montreal), 1 series loss (St. Louis).  Record now 105-23 (+36 UNITS)

    Open teams:
    Washington (3rd game; 12/23; away)
    Colorado (3rd game; 12/23; home)
    NY Islanders (2nd game; 12/27; away)
    Buffalo (1st game; 12/27; home)
    Anaheim (2nd game; 12/27; away)
    St. Louis (3rd game; 12/27; home)
    Detroit (2nd game; 12/28; away)
    Colorado (2nd game; 12/28; home)
    Atlanta (1st game; 12/30; away)
    Toronto (1st game; 12/30; home)
    Montreal (1st game; 12/30; away)
    Tampa Bay (1st game; 12/30; away)
    More games may be added - depending on how the late games turn out.


    We pushed our Washington game 3 chase and our Buffalo game 1 chase, so we will chase the same games next time.  We lost our Detroit game 1 chase and St. Louis game 2 chase, so we now chase games 2 and 3 respectively.  We add Atlanta, Toronto, Montreal and Tampa Bay to our chase list.

    Known games for 12/31
    FLA @ NYI (gm 2) - 2 unit
    ATL (gm 1) @ CAR - 1 unit
    COL (gm 3 & gm 1) @ PHO - 5 unit
    CLB @ ANA (gm 2) - 2 unit

    Possible games
    EDM @ CAL - 1 unit
     
    usakangy
    usakangy
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    Posted: Dec. 31, 2008 - 8:23 AM ET #21

    Got through October of 2006....

    System A is 64-3 (+43 u)
    System B is 57-11 (+24 u)
    System C is 34-0 (+34 u)
    System D is 32-2 (+26 u)

    On to November '06....
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    Got through October of 2006....

    System A is 64-3 (+43 u)
    System B is 57-11 (+24 u)
    System C is 34-0 (+34 u)
    System D is 32-2 (+26 u)

    On to November '06....
     
    usakangy
    usakangy
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    Posted: Jan. 1, 2009 - 1:25 AM ET #22

    HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!!!

    Results for 12/31

    FLA @ NYI (gm 2) UNDER 5.5 - 2 unit  LOSS (-2 u)
    ATL (gm 1) @ CAR OVR 6 - 1 unit  LOSS (-1 u)
    COL (gm 3 & gm 1) @ PHO UNDER 5.5 - 5 unit  WIN (+5 u)
    CLB @ ANA (gm 2) OVER 5 - 2 unit LOSS (-2 u)

    SYSTEM A - 2 series wins (Colorado x 2)  Record now 227-25 (+52 UNITS)
    SYSTEM B - 1 series win (Colorado), 2 series losses (NY Islanders, Anaheim)  Record now 205-51 (+52 UNITS)
    SYSTEM C - 2 series wins (Colorado x 2)  Record now 117-10 (+47 UNITS)
    SYSTEM D - 1 series win (Colorado)  Record now 105-23 (+36 UNITS)

    Open teams:
    Washington (3rd game; 12/23; away)
    NY Islanders (3rd game; 12/27; away)
    Buffalo (1st game; 12/27; home)
    Anaheim (3rd game; 12/27; away)
    St. Louis (3rd game; 12/27; home)
    Detroit (2nd game; 12/28; away)
    Atlanta (2nd game; 12/30; away)
    Toronto (1st game; 12/30; home)
    Montreal (1st game; 12/30; away)
    Tampa Bay (1st game; 12/30; home)
    San Jose (1st game; 12/30; away)
    Minnesota (1st game; 12/30; home)


    Games for 1/1
    WAS (gm 3) @ TB (gm 1) OVER 6 - 5 unit  (A only)
    WAS @ TB (gm 1) OVER 6 - 1 unit  (B,C,D only)
    BUF (gm 1) @ TOR (gm 1) OVER 6 - 2 unit (A,B,C,D)
    DET (gm 2) @ CHI UNDER 5.5 - 2 unit (A,B only)
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    HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!!!

    Results for 12/31

    FLA @ NYI (gm 2) UNDER 5.5 - 2 unit  LOSS (-2 u)
    ATL (gm 1) @ CAR OVR 6 - 1 unit  LOSS (-1 u)
    COL (gm 3 & gm 1) @ PHO UNDER 5.5 - 5 unit  WIN (+5 u)
    CLB @ ANA (gm 2) OVER 5 - 2 unit LOSS (-2 u)

    SYSTEM A - 2 series wins (Colorado x 2)  Record now 227-25 (+52 UNITS)
    SYSTEM B - 1 series win (Colorado), 2 series losses (NY Islanders, Anaheim)  Record now 205-51 (+52 UNITS)
    SYSTEM C - 2 series wins (Colorado x 2)  Record now 117-10 (+47 UNITS)
    SYSTEM D - 1 series win (Colorado)  Record now 105-23 (+36 UNITS)

    Open teams:
    Washington (3rd game; 12/23; away)
    NY Islanders (3rd game; 12/27; away)
    Buffalo (1st game; 12/27; home)
    Anaheim (3rd game; 12/27; away)
    St. Louis (3rd game; 12/27; home)
    Detroit (2nd game; 12/28; away)
    Atlanta (2nd game; 12/30; away)
    Toronto (1st game; 12/30; home)
    Montreal (1st game; 12/30; away)
    Tampa Bay (1st game; 12/30; home)
    San Jose (1st game; 12/30; away)
    Minnesota (1st game; 12/30; home)


    Games for 1/1
    WAS (gm 3) @ TB (gm 1) OVER 6 - 5 unit  (A only)
    WAS @ TB (gm 1) OVER 6 - 1 unit  (B,C,D only)
    BUF (gm 1) @ TOR (gm 1) OVER 6 - 2 unit (A,B,C,D)
    DET (gm 2) @ CHI UNDER 5.5 - 2 unit (A,B only)
     
    usakangy
    usakangy
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    Posted: Jan. 2, 2009 - 8:35 AM ET #23

    Results for 1/1
    WAS (gm 3) @ TB (gm 1) OVER 6 - 5 unit  WIN (+5 u) (A only)
    WAS @ TB (gm 1) OVER 6 - 1 unit  WIN (+1 u) (B,C,D only)
    BUF (gm 1) @ TOR (gm 1) OVER 6 - 2 unit LOSS (-2 u) (A,B,C,D)
    DET (gm 2) @ CHI UNDER 5.5 - 2 unit LOSS (-2 u) (A,B only)

    SYSTEM A - 2 series wins (WAS, TB)  Record now 229-25 (+54 UNITS)
    SYSTEM B - 1 series win (WAS), 1 series loss (DET)  Record now 206-52 (+50 UNITS)
    SYSTEM C - 1 series win (TB)  Record now 118-10 (+48 UNITS)
    SYSTEM D - 1 series win (TB)  Record now 106-23 (+37 UNITS)

    Open teams:
    NY Islanders (3rd game; 12/27; away)
    Buffalo (2nd game; 12/27; home)
    Anaheim (3rd game; 12/27; away)
    St. Louis (3rd game; 12/27; home)
    Detroit (3rd game; 12/28; away)
    Atlanta (2nd game; 12/30; away)
    Toronto (2nd game; 12/30; home)
    Montreal (1st game; 12/30; away)
    San Jose (1st game; 12/30; away)
    Minnesota (1st game; 12/30; home)


    Games for 1/2
    MON (gm 1) @ NJ UND 5.5   - 1 unit (A,B only)
    STL (gm 3) @ CAR OVR 6  - 4 unit (A,C only)
    VAN @ ATL (gm 2) UND 5.5  - 2 unit (A,B only)
    NYI (gm 3) @ PHO UND 5.5  - 4 unit (A only)
    PHI @ ANA (gm 3) UND 5.5  - 4 unit (A only)
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    Results for 1/1
    WAS (gm 3) @ TB (gm 1) OVER 6 - 5 unit  WIN (+5 u) (A only)
    WAS @ TB (gm 1) OVER 6 - 1 unit  WIN (+1 u) (B,C,D only)
    BUF (gm 1) @ TOR (gm 1) OVER 6 - 2 unit LOSS (-2 u) (A,B,C,D)
    DET (gm 2) @ CHI UNDER 5.5 - 2 unit LOSS (-2 u) (A,B only)

    SYSTEM A - 2 series wins (WAS, TB)  Record now 229-25 (+54 UNITS)
    SYSTEM B - 1 series win (WAS), 1 series loss (DET)  Record now 206-52 (+50 UNITS)
    SYSTEM C - 1 series win (TB)  Record now 118-10 (+48 UNITS)
    SYSTEM D - 1 series win (TB)  Record now 106-23 (+37 UNITS)

    Open teams:
    NY Islanders (3rd game; 12/27; away)
    Buffalo (2nd game; 12/27; home)
    Anaheim (3rd game; 12/27; away)
    St. Louis (3rd game; 12/27; home)
    Detroit (3rd game; 12/28; away)
    Atlanta (2nd game; 12/30; away)
    Toronto (2nd game; 12/30; home)
    Montreal (1st game; 12/30; away)
    San Jose (1st game; 12/30; away)
    Minnesota (1st game; 12/30; home)


    Games for 1/2
    MON (gm 1) @ NJ UND 5.5   - 1 unit (A,B only)
    STL (gm 3) @ CAR OVR 6  - 4 unit (A,C only)
    VAN @ ATL (gm 2) UND 5.5  - 2 unit (A,B only)
    NYI (gm 3) @ PHO UND 5.5  - 4 unit (A only)
    PHI @ ANA (gm 3) UND 5.5  - 4 unit (A only)
     
    usakangy
    usakangy
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    Posted: Jan. 3, 2009 - 12:50 AM ET #24

    Results for 1/2
    MON (gm 1) @ NJ UND 5.5   - 1 unit WIN (+1u) (A,B only)
    STL (gm 3) @ CAR OVR 6  - 4 unit LOSS (-4u) (A,C only)
    VAN @ ATL (gm 2) UND 5.5  - 2 unit LOSS (-2u) (A,B only)
    NYI (gm 3) @ PHO UND 5.5  - 4 unit LOSS (-4u) (A only)
    PHI @ ANA (gm 3) UND 5.5  - 4 unit LOSS (-4u) (A only)

    Wouldn't you know it, a total disaster using this system tonight losing three three-game chase series and a two-game chase series.  Just about all games did the opposite.

    SYSTEM A - 1 series win  (MON), 3 series losses (STL, NYI, ANA)  Record now 230-28 (+34 UNITS)
    SYSTEM B - 1 series win (MON), 1 series loss (ATL)  Record now 207-53 (+48 UNITS)
    SYSTEM C - 1 series loss (STL)  Record now 118-11 (+41 UNITS)
    SYSTEM D - No plays.  Record still 106-23 (+37 UNITS)

    Open teams:
    Buffalo (2nd game; 12/27; home)
    Detroit (3rd game; 12/28; away)
    Atlanta (3rd game; 12/30; away)
    Toronto (2nd game; 12/30; home)
    San Jose (1st game; 12/30; away)
    Minnesota (1st game; 12/30; home)
    Vancouver (1st game; 1/2; away)
    Atlanta (1st game; 1/2; home)
    Philadelphia (1st game; 1/2; away)
    Anaheim (1st game; 1/2; home)


    Games for 1/3
    BUF (gm 2) @ BOS OVR 6  - 2 unit (A,B,C,D)
    DET (gm 3) @ MIN (gm 1) UND 5.5  - 5 unit (A only)
    DET @ MIN (gm 1) UND 5.5  - 1 unit (B,C,D only)
    OTT @ TOR (gm 2) OVR 6  - 2 unit (A,B,C,D)
    NYI  @ SJ (gm 1) UND 5.5  - 1 unit (A,B only)
    PHI (gm 1) @ LA UND 5.5  - 1 unit (A,B only)
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    Results for 1/2
    MON (gm 1) @ NJ UND 5.5   - 1 unit WIN (+1u) (A,B only)
    STL (gm 3) @ CAR OVR 6  - 4 unit LOSS (-4u) (A,C only)
    VAN @ ATL (gm 2) UND 5.5  - 2 unit LOSS (-2u) (A,B only)
    NYI (gm 3) @ PHO UND 5.5  - 4 unit LOSS (-4u) (A only)
    PHI @ ANA (gm 3) UND 5.5  - 4 unit LOSS (-4u) (A only)

    Wouldn't you know it, a total disaster using this system tonight losing three three-game chase series and a two-game chase series.  Just about all games did the opposite.

    SYSTEM A - 1 series win  (MON), 3 series losses (STL, NYI, ANA)  Record now 230-28 (+34 UNITS)
    SYSTEM B - 1 series win (MON), 1 series loss (ATL)  Record now 207-53 (+48 UNITS)
    SYSTEM C - 1 series loss (STL)  Record now 118-11 (+41 UNITS)
    SYSTEM D - No plays.  Record still 106-23 (+37 UNITS)

    Open teams:
    Buffalo (2nd game; 12/27; home)
    Detroit (3rd game; 12/28; away)
    Atlanta (3rd game; 12/30; away)
    Toronto (2nd game; 12/30; home)
    San Jose (1st game; 12/30; away)
    Minnesota (1st game; 12/30; home)
    Vancouver (1st game; 1/2; away)
    Atlanta (1st game; 1/2; home)
    Philadelphia (1st game; 1/2; away)
    Anaheim (1st game; 1/2; home)


    Games for 1/3
    BUF (gm 2) @ BOS OVR 6  - 2 unit (A,B,C,D)
    DET (gm 3) @ MIN (gm 1) UND 5.5  - 5 unit (A only)
    DET @ MIN (gm 1) UND 5.5  - 1 unit (B,C,D only)
    OTT @ TOR (gm 2) OVR 6  - 2 unit (A,B,C,D)
    NYI  @ SJ (gm 1) UND 5.5  - 1 unit (A,B only)
    PHI (gm 1) @ LA UND 5.5  - 1 unit (A,B only)
     
     
    kingofny
    kingofny
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    Posted: Jan. 3, 2009 - 9:30 PM ET #25

    i do it real simple ,,, if a team goes into OT or SO i  play the over no matter what the line is ... i play one game a night and chase if i lose.. tonight i am playing PHI @ LA .. LA has 3 unders in a row ... Phi is on a road trip and is playing 2 games in a row. Tired legs + goals ,, over it is ... if i lose that i goto another game the next night i think will go over ... As for the chase after an OT or SO game  it works well but i dont play under i always play over ... there are alot more overs than unders ,, and thats why you see these lines at 6 now .. if you bet over 5.5  and it goes to 6 there is no reason to bet under because the line is 6  it will just be a push instead of a win .. so very simple pick a game that has the looks of going over and take it ..
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    i do it real simple ,,, if a team goes into OT or SO i  play the over no matter what the line is ... i play one game a night and chase if i lose.. tonight i am playing PHI @ LA .. LA has 3 unders in a row ... Phi is on a road trip and is playing 2 games in a row. Tired legs + goals ,, over it is ... if i lose that i goto another game the next night i think will go over ... As for the chase after an OT or SO game  it works well but i dont play under i always play over ... there are alot more overs than unders ,, and thats why you see these lines at 6 now .. if you bet over 5.5  and it goes to 6 there is no reason to bet under because the line is 6  it will just be a push instead of a win .. so very simple pick a game that has the looks of going over and take it ..
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