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Yet another variant for expert's old NHL OT Chase system

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Posted: #176
RESULTS FOR SUN 3/29
Colorado @ Anaheim (G3) - Under 5.5 - WINNER (A)
Vancouver @ Chicago (G1) - Under 5.5 - WINNER (A,B,C,D)
Nashville (G1) @ Detroit - Under 5.5 - LOSER (No systems affected)
Boston @ Philadelphia (G1) - Under 5.5 - LOSER (No systems affected)
St. Louis (G1) @ Columbus (G1) - Under 5.5 - LOSER (No systems affected)

Year To Date Series records
SERIES A - 447- 61 (+20 UNITS)
SERIES B - 398-110 (+68 UNITS)
SERIES C - 228- 26 (+46 UNITS)
SERIES D - 202- 52 (+46 UNITS)


CURRENT CHASES

CHASE TEAM   GM    DATE   SITE   LEFT  NEXT GAME
NY RANGERS   2nd   3/26   AWAY     6   30 vs NJD
MONTREAL     2nd   3/26   HOME     7   31 vs CHI
LOS ANGELES  2nd   3/26   AWAY     7   31 vs DAL
DALLAS       2nd   3/26   HOME     7   30 at PHX
NASHVILLE    2nd   3/28   HOME     6   31 at CLB
BUFFALO      1st   3/28   AWAY     7    1 at ATL
PHILADELPHIA 2nd   3/28   AWAY     7    1 at TOR
NY ISLANDERS 1st   3/28   HOME     7    1 at WAS
COLUMBUS     2nd   3/28   AWAY     6   31 vs NAS
ST. LOUIS    2nd   3/28   HOME     6    1 at CHI


GAMES FOR MON 3/30
New Jersey @ NY Rangers (G2) - Under 5.5 - 2U (A,B)
Dallas (G2) @ Phoenix - Under 5.5 - 2U (A,B,C,D)

 
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Posted: #177
RESULTS FOR MON 3/30
New Jersey @ NY Rangers (G2) - Under 5.5 - WINNER (A,B)
Dallas (G2) @ Phoenix - Under 5.5 - LOSER (B,D)

Year To Date Series records
SERIES A - 448- 61 (+21 UNITS)
SERIES B - 399-111 (+66 UNITS)
SERIES C - 228- 26 (+46 UNITS)
SERIES D - 202- 53 (+43 UNITS)


CURRENT CHASES

CHASE TEAM   GM    DATE   SITE   LEFT  NEXT GAME
MONTREAL     2nd   3/26   HOME     7   31 vs CHI
LOS ANGELES  2nd   3/26   AWAY     7   31 vs DAL
DALLAS       3rd   3/26   HOME     6   31 at LAK
NASHVILLE    2nd   3/28   HOME     6   31 at CLB
BUFFALO      1st   3/28   AWAY     7    1 at ATL
PHILADELPHIA 2nd   3/28   AWAY     7    1 at TOR
NY ISLANDERS 1st   3/28   HOME     7    1 at WAS
COLUMBUS     2nd   3/28   AWAY     6   31 vs NAS
ST. LOUIS    2nd   3/28   HOME     6    1 at CHI
 
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Posted: #178
GAMES FOR TUE 3/31
Chicago @ Montreal (G2) - Over 6 - 2U (A,B,C,D)
Dallas (G3) @ Los Angeles (G2) - Under 5.5 - 6U (A)
Dallas @ Los Angeles (G2) - Under 5.5 - 2U (B)
Dallas (G3) @ Los Angeles - Under 5.5 - 4U (C)
Nashville (G2) @ Columbus (G2) - Over 5 - 4U (A,B)
Nashville (G2) @ Columbus - Over 5 - 2U (C,D)

 
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Posted: #179
RESULTS FOR TUE 3/31
Chicago @ Montreal (G2) - Over 6 - LOSER (B,D)
Dallas (G3) @ Los Angeles (G2) - Under 5.5 - WINNER (Ax2,B,C)
Nashville (G2) @ Columbus (G2) - Over 5 - LOSER (Bx2,D)


Series B and D took it on the chin last night. 

Year To Date Series records
SERIES A - 450- 61 (+23 UNITS)
SERIES B - 400-114 (+58 UNITS)
SERIES C - 229- 26 (+47 UNITS)
SERIES D - 202- 55 (+37 UNITS)


CURRENT CHASES

CHASE TEAM   GM    DATE   SITE   LEFT  NEXT GAME
MONTREAL     3rd   3/26   HOME     6    2 at NYI
NASHVILLE    3rd   3/28   HOME     5    3 at CHI
BUFFALO      1st   3/28   AWAY     7    1 at ATL
PHILADELPHIA 2nd   3/28   AWAY     7    1 at TOR
NY ISLANDERS 1st   3/28   HOME     7    1 at WAS
COLUMBUS     3rd   3/28   AWAY     5    4 at NAS
ST. LOUIS    2nd   3/28   HOME     6    1 at CHI
PHOENIX      1st   3/30   HOME     6    1 at COL
VANCOUVER    1st   3/31   AWAY     6    2 vs ANA
MINNESOTA    1st   3/31   HOME     5    3 vs CAL


GAMES FOR WED 4/1
Buffalo (G1) @ Atlanta - Over 6 - 1U (A,B)
Philadelphia (G2) @ Toronto - Over 6 - 2U (A,B)
MY Islanders (G1) @ Washington - Over 6 - 1U (A,B,C,D)
St. Louis (G2) @ Chicago - Under 5.5 - 2U (A,B,C,D)
Phoenix (G1) @ Colorado - Under 5.5 - 1U (A,B,C,D)

 
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Posted: #180
RESULTS FOR WED 4/1
Buffalo (G1) @ Atlanta - Over 6 - LOSER (No systems affected)
Philadelphia (G2) @ Toronto - Over 6 - LOSER (B)
MY Islanders (G1) @ Washington - Over 6 - WINNER (A,B,C,D)
St. Louis (G2) @ Chicago - Under 5.5 - WINNER (A,B,C,D)
Phoenix (G1) @ Colorado - Under 5.5 - WINNER (A,B,C,D)


Year To Date Series records
SERIES A - 453- 61 (+26 UNITS)
SERIES B - 403-115 (+58 UNITS)
SERIES C - 232- 26 (+50 UNITS)
SERIES D - 205- 55 (+40 UNITS)


CURRENT CHASES

CHASE TEAM   GM    DATE   SITE   LEFT  NEXT GAME
MONTREAL     3rd   3/26   HOME     6    2 at NYI
NASHVILLE    3rd   3/28   HOME     5    3 at CHI
BUFFALO      2nd   3/28   AWAY     6    3 at WAS
PHILADELPHIA 3rd   3/28   AWAY     6    3 vs TOR
COLUMBUS     3rd   3/28   AWAY     5    4 at NAS
VANCOUVER    1st   3/31   AWAY     6    2 vs ANA
MINNESOTA    1st   3/31   HOME     5    3 vs CAL
ATLANTA      1st   4/ 1   HOME     5    3 at FLA


GAMES FOR THU 4/2
Montreal (G3) @ NY Islanders - Over 6 - 4U (A,C)
Anaheim @ Vancouver (G1) - Under 5.5 - 1U (A,B)

 
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Posted: #181
RESULTS FOR THU 4/2
Montreal (G3) @ NY Islanders - Over 6 - PUSH (No systems affected)
Anaheim @ Vancouver (G1) - Under 5.5 - LOSER (No systems affected)


Only three more teams can qualify for the chase this season.  Philadelphia, Buffalo and Chicago.  Everyone else will have four games or less remaining if their next games go into OT.  All three teams are in action tonight.  If neither of those games goes into OT and hit their respective totals, the chases are over and we complete the current list as is.  The season is shaping up nicely to end on a bunch of G3 chases.  Let's hope they are winners!!!



CURRENT CHASES

CHASE TEAM   GM    DATE   SITE   LEFT  NEXT GAME
MONTREAL     3rd   3/26   HOME     5    4 at TOR
NASHVILLE    3rd   3/28   HOME     5    3 at CHI
BUFFALO      2nd   3/28   AWAY     6    3 at WAS
PHILADELPHIA 3rd   3/28   AWAY     6    3 vs TOR
COLUMBUS     3rd   3/28   AWAY     5    4 at NAS
VANCOUVER    2nd   3/31   AWAY     5    4 at EDM
MINNESOTA    1st   3/31   HOME     5    3 vs CAL
ATLANTA      1st   4/ 1   HOME     5    3 at FLA



GAMES FOR FRI 4/3
Nashville (G3) @ Chicago - Under 5.5 - 4U (A,C)
Buffalo (G2) @ Washington - Over 6 - 2U (A,B)
Toronto @ Philadelphia (G3) - Over 6 - 4U (A)
Calgary @ Minnesota (G1) - Over 5 - 1U (A,B,C,D)
Atlanta (G1) @ Florida - Over 6 - 1U (A,B,C,D)


 
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Posted: #182
RESULTS FOR FRI 4/3
Nashville (G3) @ Chicago - Under 5.5 - WINNER (A,C)
Buffalo (G2) @ Washington - Over 6 - WINNER (A,B)
Toronto @ Philadelphia (G3) - Over 6/6.5 -WINNER (A)
Calgary @ Minnesota (G1) - Over 5 - LOSER (No systems affected)
Atlanta (G1) @ Florida - Over 6 - LOSER (No systems affected)


Year To Date Series records
SERIES A - 456- 61 (+29 UNITS)
SERIES B - 404-115 (+59 UNITS)
SERIES C - 233- 26 (+51 UNITS)
SERIES D - 205- 55 (+40 UNITS)



Buffalo found a way to come back, force the game into OT with an OVER total, and now we have our final chase list.  There will be no more chases this season, so when this list is done, we are done.


CURRENT CHASES

CHASE TEAM   GM    DATE   SITE   LEFT  NEXT GAME
MONTREAL     3rd   3/26   HOME     4    4 at TOR
COLUMBUS     3rd   3/28   AWAY     5    4 at NAS
VANCOUVER    2nd   3/31   AWAY     5    4 at EDM
MINNESOTA    2nd   3/31   HOME     4    5 at DET
ATLANTA      2nd   4/ 1   HOME     4    5 at WAS
BUFFALO      1st   4/ 3   AWAY     5    4 vs NJD


Barring any pushes on the totals, this is the remaining schedule for this system.  Once all the chases are complete, I will have final thoughts and breakdowns of all teams and their records and open up for general discussion.  Cheers!


GAMES FOR SAT 4/4
Montreal (G3) @ Toronto - Over 6 - 4U (A,C)
Columbus (G3) @ Nashville - Over 5 - 4U (A)
Vancouver (G2) @ Edmonton - Under 5.5 - 2U (A,B)
New Jersey @ Buffalo (G1) - Under 5.5 - 1U (A,B)

GAMES FOR SUN 4/5
Minnesota (G2) @ Detroit - 2U (A,B,C,D)
Atlanta (G2) @ Washington - 2U (A,B,C,D)
Colorado @ Vancouver (G3) - If necessary

GAMES FOR MON 4/6
Detroit @ Buffalo (G2) - if necessary

GAMES FOR TUE 4/7
Washington @ Atlanta (G3) - if necessary
Dallas @ Minnesota (G3) - if necessary

GAMES FOR WED 4/8
Buffalo (G3) @ Toronto - if necessary



 
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Posted: #183
RESULTS FOR SAT 4/4
Montreal (G3) @ Toronto - Over 6 - WINNER (A,C)
Columbus (G3) @ Nashville - Over 5 - WINNER (A)
Vancouver (G2) @ Edmonton - Under 5.5 - LOSER (B)
New Jersey @ Buffalo (G1) - Under 5.5 - WINNER (A,B)


The two G3 chases won easily, but Vancouver and Edmonton played the screwjob of the century last night going over the total in the third period alone after a fantastic defensive game!  Causes a system loss and pissed me off in the process.  It is why Vancouver series record is what it is this season (see page 7 post from 3/22). 



Year To Date Series records
SERIES A - 459- 61 (+32 UNITS)
SERIES B - 405-116 (+57 UNITS)
SERIES C - 234- 26 (+52 UNITS)
SERIES D - 205- 55 (+40 UNITS)



CURRENT CHASES

CHASE TEAM   GM    DATE   SITE   LEFT  NEXT GAME
VANCOUVER    3rd   3/31   AWAY     4    5 vs COL
MINNESOTA    2nd   3/31   HOME     4    5 at DET
ATLANTA      2nd   4/ 1   HOME     4    5 at WAS


GAMES FOR SUN 4/5
Minnesota (G2) @ Detroit - Check line - 2U (A,B,C,D)
Atlanta (G2) @ Washington - Check line - 2U (A,B,C,D)
Colorado @ Vancouver (G3) - Check line - 4U (A)

GAMES FOR TUE 4/7
Washington @ Atlanta (G3) - if necessary
Dallas @ Minnesota (G3) - if necessary

 
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Posted: #184
Here are the totals & results since I am around today.

GAMES FOR SUN 4/5
Minnesota (G2) @ Detroit - Under 5.5 - 2U - WINNER (A,B,C,D)
Atlanta (G2) @ Washington - Over 6.5 - 2U - IN PROGRESS (A,B,C,D)
Colorado @ Vancouver (G3) - Under 5.5 - 4U - LATER (A)

Two chases left!!!

CHASE TEAM   GM    DATE   SITE   LEFT  NEXT GAME
VANCOUVER    3rd   3/31   AWAY     4    5 vs COL
ATLANTA      2nd   4/ 1   HOME     4    5 at WAS
 
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Posted: #185
What a way to end the season!!  A clean sweep!!  Had to hold on for dear life in the Vancouver game again, but this time we were on the winning side!!

RESULTS FOR SUN 4/5
Minnesota (G2) @ Detroit - Under 5.5 - 2U - WINNER (A,B,C,D)
Atlanta (G2) @ Washington - Over 6.5 - 2U - WINNER (A,B,C,D)
Colorado @ Vancouver (G3) - Under 5.5 - 4U - WINNER (A)

All remaining chases won today, therefore our list is complete.  

Final Series Records
SERIES A - 462- 61 (+35 UNITS)
SERIES B - 407-116 (+59 UNITS)
SERIES C - 236- 26 (+54 UNITS)
SERIES D - 207- 55 (+42 UNITS)
 
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Posted: #186
great job closing the season ! looks like this one did not even out after all

although I do have one quick question ... you did not factor in the juice of the totals right as you tracked the units?
 
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Posted: #187
Eli,
No I didn't (see the very first post, page 1).  I was representing (on purpose) a "juiceless" 1-2-4 system.  Assuming each loss on a three game chase is really, 7.7 units at -110 instead of my basic 7 units, then the numbers would be much lower. 

So I decided to take a look. 

System A would be 462-469 (-7 units)
System B would be 407-382 (+25 units)
System C would be 236-200 (+36 units)
System D would be 207-181 (+26 units)

This system and all other chases underscores what happens when a three-game progression is lost with juice as opposed to a two-game progression.  Either way chases are bad unless there was a bonafide way of assuring a victory if enough games in the chase are played.  Remember, I wanted to start out tracking.  However, with a sportsbook like Matchbook, where you can get anywhere from -130 to +130 odds on a total, they would pretty much even out.  If your book is a -105 line, it is a lot better in the long run.   

Also, just a week and a half or so ago, system A was siting at +11 UNITS (not factoring the juice), at the end, it is +35 UNITS.  This is what happened last year as well that caused one of those systems to hit +100 UNITS (a late surging string of series wins) 

 
 
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Posted: #188
Quote Originally Posted by usakangy:

Eli,
No I didn't (see the very first post, page 1).  I was representing (on purpose) a "juiceless" 1-2-4 system.  Assuming each loss on a three game chase is really, 7.7 units at -110 instead of my basic 7 units, then the numbers would be much lower. 

So I decided to take a look. 

System A would be 462-469 (-7 units)
System B would be 407-382 (+25 units)
System C would be 236-200 (+36 units)
System D would be 207-181 (+26 units)



Ok, thanks for clarifying this. Still, the results are positive so the trend did provide a decent strategy. Good job tracking through this.
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