I back tested 450 games from Nov 7 to Jan 6 in three ways. I used this last method of Cap's that uses the home and road off scoring averages.
1) The first method just plays all games and does not "reverse" for any value above or below the line. Record 212-233-5 or 47.1% I also tested not playing games if they were below 3 or 4 (or any number for that matter) and it did not improve the percentage.
2) The second was to play all games (again I also tested not playing below a certain number and no improvement) and reverse the results if the difference was above some number ... the number turned out to be 6.86, which is consistent with what Capper has been using. Record 241-204-5 or 53.6%
3) The third was just to play the "top play" reverse games ... I used 6.86 as the cutoff and 40.2% of the games are plays. Record 105-76-3 or 57.1%
So it looks like playing all games with this system is not quite gonna pass the 55% mark in the long run ... but playing the "top plays" does appear to be a winning system so far this year. Congrats Capper!
Now, I looked at a lot of your plays Capper and I am not sure if you have just made math mistakes or you are combining the system with some good ole handicapping. Like tonight, it looks to me like Tor/Was was an Under by -0.3 and NO/Uta looks like a reverse Under with a value of 8.4 I know you said 9 was the cutof, but you have reversed with values as low as 6.6 (SA/Mem on 1/2) There are plenty of other examples ... another on 1/2 where the system took Uta/LAL under (1.8) but you took the over. Whatever you are doing, like I said in the earlier post is working, but I am curious if you are doing the variations on purpose.
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I back tested 450 games from Nov 7 to Jan 6 in three ways. I used this last method of Cap's that uses the home and road off scoring averages.
1) The first method just plays all games and does not "reverse" for any value above or below the line. Record 212-233-5 or 47.1% I also tested not playing games if they were below 3 or 4 (or any number for that matter) and it did not improve the percentage.
2) The second was to play all games (again I also tested not playing below a certain number and no improvement) and reverse the results if the difference was above some number ... the number turned out to be 6.86, which is consistent with what Capper has been using. Record 241-204-5 or 53.6%
3) The third was just to play the "top play" reverse games ... I used 6.86 as the cutoff and 40.2% of the games are plays. Record 105-76-3 or 57.1%
So it looks like playing all games with this system is not quite gonna pass the 55% mark in the long run ... but playing the "top plays" does appear to be a winning system so far this year. Congrats Capper!
Now, I looked at a lot of your plays Capper and I am not sure if you have just made math mistakes or you are combining the system with some good ole handicapping. Like tonight, it looks to me like Tor/Was was an Under by -0.3 and NO/Uta looks like a reverse Under with a value of 8.4 I know you said 9 was the cutof, but you have reversed with values as low as 6.6 (SA/Mem on 1/2) There are plenty of other examples ... another on 1/2 where the system took Uta/LAL under (1.8) but you took the over. Whatever you are doing, like I said in the earlier post is working, but I am curious if you are doing the variations on purpose.
Take a look to my Computer Projections for yesterday!
PHO-IND 214 (Vegas Line +10) WIN DEN-MIA 202 (Vegas Line -4) WIN MIN-OKC 199 (Vegas Line +3.5) LOST POR-DET 191 (Vegas Line -14) LOST BOS-HOU 194 (Vegas Line -10) LOST GSW-LAL 210 (Vegas Line +16) WIN UTA-NO 194 (Vegas Line -1.5) WIN CLE-CHA 191 (Vegas Line -8) WIN ATL-ORL 195 (Vegas Line -4) WIN WAS-TOR 195 (Vegas Line -5) WIN MIL-PHI 192 (Vegas Line +5) LOST NJ-MEM 196 (Vegas Line -9) WIN
8-4! (%66.67)
Click here to see Computer Projections for yesterday.
Josh Lewis' Computer Projections for 1/8
SA-LAC 196 DAL-NY 204
GL Tonight everyone!
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Guys I think I found something interesting!
Take a look to my Computer Projections for yesterday!
PHO-IND 214 (Vegas Line +10) WIN DEN-MIA 202 (Vegas Line -4) WIN MIN-OKC 199 (Vegas Line +3.5) LOST POR-DET 191 (Vegas Line -14) LOST BOS-HOU 194 (Vegas Line -10) LOST GSW-LAL 210 (Vegas Line +16) WIN UTA-NO 194 (Vegas Line -1.5) WIN CLE-CHA 191 (Vegas Line -8) WIN ATL-ORL 195 (Vegas Line -4) WIN WAS-TOR 195 (Vegas Line -5) WIN MIL-PHI 192 (Vegas Line +5) LOST NJ-MEM 196 (Vegas Line -9) WIN
8-4! (%66.67)
Click here to see Computer Projections for yesterday.
JoshLewis 8-4 in one night is nothing to write home about and certainly not worthy of a thread hijack. You might find your "clients" (or more precisely Cover.com) will prefer your picks in the Website Promotions forum ...
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JoshLewis 8-4 in one night is nothing to write home about and certainly not worthy of a thread hijack. You might find your "clients" (or more precisely Cover.com) will prefer your picks in the Website Promotions forum ...
Gas, I have a spreadsheet setup already to answer those questions so I will go ahead and share. First off, the maximum comes at playing ALL reverse plays above 6.86, that will change day to day of course, so 7.0 is a good line. Playing just the 6-10 games is 62-47 55.4%. The >10 record is 56-47 52.8 %.
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Gas, I have a spreadsheet setup already to answer those questions so I will go ahead and share. First off, the maximum comes at playing ALL reverse plays above 6.86, that will change day to day of course, so 7.0 is a good line. Playing just the 6-10 games is 62-47 55.4%. The >10 record is 56-47 52.8 %.
Gas, I have a spreadsheet setup already to answer those questions so I will go ahead and share. First off, the maximum comes at playing ALL reverse plays above 6.86, that will change day to day of course, so 7.0 is a good line. Playing just the 6-10 games is 62-47 55.4%. The >10 record is 56-47 52.8 %.
Ken...So the 6-10 spread is a 55.4% winner
...greater than 10 is 52.8% WINNER IF PLAYED NORMAL WAY RIGHT? What is the point line when "play" is on the "reversed Play"....any ideas?
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Quote Originally Posted by kenyonlv:
Gas, I have a spreadsheet setup already to answer those questions so I will go ahead and share. First off, the maximum comes at playing ALL reverse plays above 6.86, that will change day to day of course, so 7.0 is a good line. Playing just the 6-10 games is 62-47 55.4%. The >10 record is 56-47 52.8 %.
Ken...So the 6-10 spread is a 55.4% winner
...greater than 10 is 52.8% WINNER IF PLAYED NORMAL WAY RIGHT? What is the point line when "play" is on the "reversed Play"....any ideas?
Gas, Yes, 6-10 spread was 55.4% yesterday, today it is 54.9% You must play all games with the reverse otherwise you are looking at less then 50%. So the only question is where to reverse and yesterday it was 6.86 I haven't looked for today yet. Have you guys got Excel? if so I can send you the spreadsheet to play with .. its fun looking at all the different ways to look for plays. I'm looking for a sweet spot now ... not sure how this will paste but here goes.
Gas, Yes, 6-10 spread was 55.4% yesterday, today it is 54.9% You must play all games with the reverse otherwise you are looking at less then 50%. So the only question is where to reverse and yesterday it was 6.86 I haven't looked for today yet. Have you guys got Excel? if so I can send you the spreadsheet to play with .. its fun looking at all the different ways to look for plays. I'm looking for a sweet spot now ... not sure how this will paste but here goes.
Capper I just now noticed you have your picks reversed in your second post ... were you asking me if this is what I am saying??? If so NOOOO that was not what I was saying even tho it went 2-0. Actually you would be better off to reverse every single game no matter what the diff is. When I first backtested I said your system with no reverse was 212-233-5 or 47.1%... well it didn't dawn on me until now that if you reverse every pick it is 233-212-5 or 51.8%. Then work on a range of games to play ... which is what I mean in post above where I say between 7 to 10 it is 57.9%
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Capper I just now noticed you have your picks reversed in your second post ... were you asking me if this is what I am saying??? If so NOOOO that was not what I was saying even tho it went 2-0. Actually you would be better off to reverse every single game no matter what the diff is. When I first backtested I said your system with no reverse was 212-233-5 or 47.1%... well it didn't dawn on me until now that if you reverse every pick it is 233-212-5 or 51.8%. Then work on a range of games to play ... which is what I mean in post above where I say between 7 to 10 it is 57.9%
Now I feel like I am hijacking this thread, but I am talking about Cappers system ... I think I will start a new thread and track the 3 systems I am now following, 2 of mine and if ok with Capper I will track his. Maybe between the 3 we can pick more winners!
I'll clarify what I have found ... first off I added the past two days of games so the numbers are a little different, because it is now backtested for 464 games instead of 450.
If Capper reverses every pick, ie if the sum of team averages is greater then the line pick the Under, if lower pick the Over, the record is 238-221-5 or 51.3% for all games.
If you just play games where the difference between the line and the averages is >= 7 the record is 104-84-3 or 54.5% (41.2% of all games fit this.)
If you play games where the difference is >=7 and <=10 the record is 45-30-3 or 56.3% (17.2% of all games.) Which is what I called the 7-10 "sweet spot."
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Now I feel like I am hijacking this thread, but I am talking about Cappers system ... I think I will start a new thread and track the 3 systems I am now following, 2 of mine and if ok with Capper I will track his. Maybe between the 3 we can pick more winners!
I'll clarify what I have found ... first off I added the past two days of games so the numbers are a little different, because it is now backtested for 464 games instead of 450.
If Capper reverses every pick, ie if the sum of team averages is greater then the line pick the Under, if lower pick the Over, the record is 238-221-5 or 51.3% for all games.
If you just play games where the difference between the line and the averages is >= 7 the record is 104-84-3 or 54.5% (41.2% of all games fit this.)
If you play games where the difference is >=7 and <=10 the record is 45-30-3 or 56.3% (17.2% of all games.) Which is what I called the 7-10 "sweet spot."
So last night i took LA/SA @ 185, when the numbers were run on this O/U it was an under bet and i knew the line would drop by the morning which it did to 183. When it hit 183 it would have been an over bet. So was this just me not thinking it through or is there a better time in which you are trying to calculate the O/U, or are you not even counting it.
Would it be best to wait til closer to game time to make the bets or would it be better to make them when they open.
When back checking all the results it would be all the closed lines, right?
Any advice or insight please. I'm loving all the teamwork to make a good system, or atleast try to win some money while trying.
Keep up the good work & Thank You!
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So last night i took LA/SA @ 185, when the numbers were run on this O/U it was an under bet and i knew the line would drop by the morning which it did to 183. When it hit 183 it would have been an over bet. So was this just me not thinking it through or is there a better time in which you are trying to calculate the O/U, or are you not even counting it.
Would it be best to wait til closer to game time to make the bets or would it be better to make them when they open.
When back checking all the results it would be all the closed lines, right?
Any advice or insight please. I'm loving all the teamwork to make a good system, or atleast try to win some money while trying.
Have you set any guidelines about the # of games played or is it just strictly all games played in the season. Wednesday there were 12 games played, tonight had 2 games and Friday there is 12 games. Do think there will be better chances of a higer win ratio on the nights with more games than fewer games, or is this standard knowledge.
And if you have better chances with more games per night what is the amount of games being played for a good night to get the most advantage.
Just asking some questions and any advice will help.
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One last post....
Have you set any guidelines about the # of games played or is it just strictly all games played in the season. Wednesday there were 12 games played, tonight had 2 games and Friday there is 12 games. Do think there will be better chances of a higer win ratio on the nights with more games than fewer games, or is this standard knowledge.
And if you have better chances with more games per night what is the amount of games being played for a good night to get the most advantage.
Just asking some questions and any advice will help.
Man you guys really ran with this thread. It is great to see this thread cause it was these forums should represent, all of us posters helping each other to make money. Im not saying I have input but us as a whole community.
With that said Kenyon Im lost as all hell.... LOL keep up the good work and if your Excel spreadsheet makes it easier to understand Im willing to learn. Good luck fellas
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Man you guys really ran with this thread. It is great to see this thread cause it was these forums should represent, all of us posters helping each other to make money. Im not saying I have input but us as a whole community.
With that said Kenyon Im lost as all hell.... LOL keep up the good work and if your Excel spreadsheet makes it easier to understand Im willing to learn. Good luck fellas
Cool HeaVin glad you agree ... but i feel like I am causing to much confusion and will start a new thread and maybe make comments on Caps system there. Cap is good at making adjustments and I don't won't to interfere with that. That is what I need to be able to do, make adjustments on the fly, so thanks Cap for the incentive.
Now Cap one more thing I found and want to share ... I backtested for the whole season except for 63 beginning games, but I also keep track of the progress in increments. Here is the record in 25 game increments for if every game is reversed and played. (The system I said was 51.3% overall)
This system did well about 125 games ago, you switched to your new system about 100 games ago ... I don't have this new spreadsheet set up to back all 464 games yet, but we already know those #'s.
Good luck and if you have any questions feel free to ask.
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Cool HeaVin glad you agree ... but i feel like I am causing to much confusion and will start a new thread and maybe make comments on Caps system there. Cap is good at making adjustments and I don't won't to interfere with that. That is what I need to be able to do, make adjustments on the fly, so thanks Cap for the incentive.
Now Cap one more thing I found and want to share ... I backtested for the whole season except for 63 beginning games, but I also keep track of the progress in increments. Here is the record in 25 game increments for if every game is reversed and played. (The system I said was 51.3% overall)
This system did well about 125 games ago, you switched to your new system about 100 games ago ... I don't have this new spreadsheet set up to back all 464 games yet, but we already know those #'s.
Good luck and if you have any questions feel free to ask.
So last night i took LA/SA @ 185, when the numbers were run on this O/U it was an under bet and i knew the line would drop by the morning which it did to 183. When it hit 183 it would have been an over bet. So was this just me not thinking it through or is there a better time in which you are trying to calculate the O/U, or are you not even counting it.
Would it be best to wait til closer to game time to make the bets or would it be better to make them when they open.
When back checking all the results it would be all the closed lines, right?
Any advice or insight please. I'm loving all the teamwork to make a good system, or atleast try to win some money while trying.
Keep up the good work & Thank You!
LaC/SA was NEVER an UNDER bet.....
the O/U Vegas line was 182...their offensive points Home/Away was 197 so the PLAY would have been to PLAY OVER 182....
sometimes ExpertCapper plays a "REVERSE" when calculated difference is way off but that angle has not been paying off lately.
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Quote Originally Posted by Cant_fight_it:
So last night i took LA/SA @ 185, when the numbers were run on this O/U it was an under bet and i knew the line would drop by the morning which it did to 183. When it hit 183 it would have been an over bet. So was this just me not thinking it through or is there a better time in which you are trying to calculate the O/U, or are you not even counting it.
Would it be best to wait til closer to game time to make the bets or would it be better to make them when they open.
When back checking all the results it would be all the closed lines, right?
Any advice or insight please. I'm loving all the teamwork to make a good system, or atleast try to win some money while trying.
Keep up the good work & Thank You!
LaC/SA was NEVER an UNDER bet.....
the O/U Vegas line was 182...their offensive points Home/Away was 197 so the PLAY would have been to PLAY OVER 182....
sometimes ExpertCapper plays a "REVERSE" when calculated difference is way off but that angle has not been paying off lately.
Gas, Yes, 6-10 spread was 55.4% yesterday, today it is 54.9% You must play all games with the reverse otherwise you are looking at less then 50%. So the only question is where to reverse and yesterday it was 6.86 I haven't looked for today yet. Have you guys got Excel? if so I can send you the spreadsheet to play with .. its fun looking at all the different ways to look for plays. I'm looking for a sweet spot now ... not sure how this will paste but here goes.
Gas, Yes, 6-10 spread was 55.4% yesterday, today it is 54.9% You must play all games with the reverse otherwise you are looking at less then 50%. So the only question is where to reverse and yesterday it was 6.86 I haven't looked for today yet. Have you guys got Excel? if so I can send you the spreadsheet to play with .. its fun looking at all the different ways to look for plays. I'm looking for a sweet spot now ... not sure how this will paste but here goes.
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