That's basically how all systems should be advertised. Books will
adjust to almost all trends that develop during the season. Optimizing
also means knowing when to jump off the system train before it crashes.
Sometimes, it pays off to keep things simple but your variation looks as interesting. Let's see how the NBA treats systems.
0
That's basically how all systems should be advertised. Books will
adjust to almost all trends that develop during the season. Optimizing
also means knowing when to jump off the system train before it crashes.
Sometimes, it pays off to keep things simple but your variation looks as interesting. Let's see how the NBA treats systems.
VEGAS FORMULA FOR O/U IN NBA! LEAGUE AVG. IS 196 PTS. PER GAME. COMPARE BOTH TEAMS AVG. PTS. PER GAME TO THIS NUMBER[196] ADD THE 2 DIFFERENCES TO 196 AND THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE O/U OPENING LINE.EXAMPLE TODAY: BULLS AVG 199.5 PER GAME,KNICKS AVG.211.5. BULLS ARE 3.5 ABOVE 196,KNICKS ARE15.5 ABOVE. 3.5+15.5=19.196+19=215 WHICH IS CLOSE TO OPENING LINE! THIS FORMULA WILL BE WITHIN 0-4 PTS.{UNLESS INJURY'S ETC.] BET THE GAMES THAT ARE OFF THE MOST!
Can you post the games that are off the most for tonight to see how they play out?
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Quote Originally Posted by sambuca frank:
VEGAS FORMULA FOR O/U IN NBA! LEAGUE AVG. IS 196 PTS. PER GAME. COMPARE BOTH TEAMS AVG. PTS. PER GAME TO THIS NUMBER[196] ADD THE 2 DIFFERENCES TO 196 AND THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE O/U OPENING LINE.EXAMPLE TODAY: BULLS AVG 199.5 PER GAME,KNICKS AVG.211.5. BULLS ARE 3.5 ABOVE 196,KNICKS ARE15.5 ABOVE. 3.5+15.5=19.196+19=215 WHICH IS CLOSE TO OPENING LINE! THIS FORMULA WILL BE WITHIN 0-4 PTS.{UNLESS INJURY'S ETC.] BET THE GAMES THAT ARE OFF THE MOST!
Can you post the games that are off the most for tonight to see how they play out?
Haha... Am I the bad guy now?... That's cute there with the free country stuff there and all but you're taking it the wrong way. I'm all for it if anyone can profit with this. I got nothing against you. I know its a test. You overlook the fact that back in my original post I was respectful and still giving you props and I was not talking any trash against your testing. Well boo hoo hoo... Cry me a river if you or anyone else in life can't take some cautious advice making it seem like I'm attacking a well proven established profiting strategy. Trends like this can tend do crash hard. That's all, no big deal. Having back tested results over the past few years would help give some credibility and solidify confidence for another successful year with a good amount of units to pick up. We're all on the same side here. I too track and play some simple trends based off of 1 stat compared to the betting element. Some are still profiting while others have pivoted or flattended out. That's all, its a nature of the beast. I just don't have much of any time to post, keep track or to be involved in extensive testing of new or current systems. Well I'll do my patriotic duty and help spread the wealth too. I'll throw out some winning simple teands and systems. Some I play, others I only track. They're results can speak for themselves. Feel free to just track them and if after a while anyone feels good, go wager on them. Or just hate on them, hate on me, whatever. The important thing here is that we're all having a good time and making $$$. Tomorrow is a new day with some money to pocket so let's go out there and win 1 for the gipper. After all, nothing personal, its just business and we're all here with these systems helping each other out.
0
Haha... Am I the bad guy now?... That's cute there with the free country stuff there and all but you're taking it the wrong way. I'm all for it if anyone can profit with this. I got nothing against you. I know its a test. You overlook the fact that back in my original post I was respectful and still giving you props and I was not talking any trash against your testing. Well boo hoo hoo... Cry me a river if you or anyone else in life can't take some cautious advice making it seem like I'm attacking a well proven established profiting strategy. Trends like this can tend do crash hard. That's all, no big deal. Having back tested results over the past few years would help give some credibility and solidify confidence for another successful year with a good amount of units to pick up. We're all on the same side here. I too track and play some simple trends based off of 1 stat compared to the betting element. Some are still profiting while others have pivoted or flattended out. That's all, its a nature of the beast. I just don't have much of any time to post, keep track or to be involved in extensive testing of new or current systems. Well I'll do my patriotic duty and help spread the wealth too. I'll throw out some winning simple teands and systems. Some I play, others I only track. They're results can speak for themselves. Feel free to just track them and if after a while anyone feels good, go wager on them. Or just hate on them, hate on me, whatever. The important thing here is that we're all having a good time and making $$$. Tomorrow is a new day with some money to pocket so let's go out there and win 1 for the gipper. After all, nothing personal, its just business and we're all here with these systems helping each other out.
I am glad Eli you found that yes they are not playing the CLIPPERS they are playing the KINGS. Yes a profitable night again, actually as soon as these numbers come out you should be playing them like the O/U on the Lakers I had 214 for O/U and it pushed, if you waited till game time it would of been like 111 so Tuesday we actually went 5 wins 3 losses Overall testing for NBA TOTALS 12-4 still not bad for 3 days testing
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I am glad Eli you found that yes they are not playing the CLIPPERS they are playing the KINGS. Yes a profitable night again, actually as soon as these numbers come out you should be playing them like the O/U on the Lakers I had 214 for O/U and it pushed, if you waited till game time it would of been like 111 so Tuesday we actually went 5 wins 3 losses Overall testing for NBA TOTALS 12-4 still not bad for 3 days testing
i tried ur syst. on league champ i whent 7-1-1 but what i did was to add the avg. on away/home games and i add up de-fence got the two totals and devided by 2 any ways i think ur on to something
gl chili d
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hey expertcapper,
i tried ur syst. on league champ i whent 7-1-1 but what i did was to add the avg. on away/home games and i add up de-fence got the two totals and devided by 2 any ways i think ur on to something
Sorry fellows, but I back tested this and it doesn't look good. Of course my data is a little different, I don't include points scored in OT for season averages, and sometimes my lines are different .... for example I had the Bos/Ind line on12/7 at 201.5 not 198.5, so my lines are closer to opening then closing.
The results ...
from 10/31 to date W 148 L 147
from 11/15 to date W 88 L 94
from 12/1 to date W 34 L 28
I know this will look like crap, but here are my numbers since Dec 1, if anyone wants to check ...
12/5 LA Lakers Washington 108.7 96.7 199 205.4 Ov Ov W 12/5 Oklahoma City Orlando 91.8 99.3 192.5 191.1 Un Un W 12/5 Minnesota New Jersey 95.2 100.4 201 195.6 Un Un W 12/5 New York Atlanta 104.4 98.7 197 203.1 Un Ov L 12/5 Indiana Cleveland 99.7 104.4 216 204.1 Un Un W 12/5 Philadelphia Detroit 94.1 96.2 192 190.3 Un Un W 12/5 Portland Boston 98.1 99.0 200 197.1 Un Un W 12/5 LA Clippers Memphis 91.9 93.1 199.5 185.0 Un Un W 12/5 Golden State Houston 104.2 94.5 195.5 198.6 Ov Ov W 12/5 Charlotte Milwaukee 89.2 93.5 188 182.7 Ov Un L 12/5 Toronto Utah 96.8 99.3 199 196.0 Ov Un L 12/6 Cleveland Charlotte 104.0 89.5 184 193.5 Un Ov L 12/6 New Jersey Philadelphia 101.1 94.2 196 195.3 Un Un W 12/6 Oklahoma City Miami 91.6 98.0 201.5 189.6 Ov Un L 12/6 LA Clippers Minnesota 91.4 94.6 193.5 185.9 Un Un W 12/6 Memphis New Orleans 93.1 96.7 192.5 189.7 Ov Un L 12/6 Golden State San Antonio 104.6 92.2 213 196.8 Un Un W 12/6 Atlanta Dallas 98.7 99.5 199.5 198.2 Un Un W 12/6 Washington Chicago 97.1 97.3 200.5 194.4 Ov Un L 12/6 Utah Phoenix 100.0 99.4 206.5 199.3 Ov Un L 12/6 Denver Sacramento 100.7 96.8 212 197.5 Un Un W 12/7 Detroit New York 95.9 103.9 205.5 199.8 Un Un W 12/7 Portland Toronto 97.1 96.2 192 193.4 Ov Ov W 12/7 Boston Indiana 98.7 98.3 201.5 197.0 Ov Un L 12/7 Milwaukee LA Lakers 93.9 108.6 209.5 202.4 Un Un W 12/8 Charlotte Miami 88.8 98.4 186 187.1 Un Ov L 12/8 Golden State Oklahoma City 103.8 91.9 220 195.7 Un Un W 12/8 Houston Memphis 96.3 92.8 192 189.1 Un Un W 12/8 Orlando LA Clippers 99.2 92.2 193.5 191.4 Un Un W 12/9 Detroit Washington 95.7 97.8 194.5 193.6 Un Un W 12/9 Toronto Cleveland 96.3 103.5 193.5 199.8 Un Ov L 12/9 Utah Minnesota 100.1 94.0 197 194.1 Un Un W 12/9 Atlanta Houston 98.6 96.3 194 195.0 Un Ov L 12/9 New York Chicago 103.9 98.3 214.5 202.2 Un Un W 12/9 San Antonio Dallas 93.8 99.5 189.5 193.4 Ov Ov W 12/9 Milwaukee Phoenix 93.8 99.7 204.5 193.4 Un Un W 12/9 Orlando Portland 99.0 97.2 187 196.2 Un Ov L 12/9 LA Lakers Sacramento 108.4 96.2 213 204.6 Un Un W
0
Sorry fellows, but I back tested this and it doesn't look good. Of course my data is a little different, I don't include points scored in OT for season averages, and sometimes my lines are different .... for example I had the Bos/Ind line on12/7 at 201.5 not 198.5, so my lines are closer to opening then closing.
The results ...
from 10/31 to date W 148 L 147
from 11/15 to date W 88 L 94
from 12/1 to date W 34 L 28
I know this will look like crap, but here are my numbers since Dec 1, if anyone wants to check ...
12/5 LA Lakers Washington 108.7 96.7 199 205.4 Ov Ov W 12/5 Oklahoma City Orlando 91.8 99.3 192.5 191.1 Un Un W 12/5 Minnesota New Jersey 95.2 100.4 201 195.6 Un Un W 12/5 New York Atlanta 104.4 98.7 197 203.1 Un Ov L 12/5 Indiana Cleveland 99.7 104.4 216 204.1 Un Un W 12/5 Philadelphia Detroit 94.1 96.2 192 190.3 Un Un W 12/5 Portland Boston 98.1 99.0 200 197.1 Un Un W 12/5 LA Clippers Memphis 91.9 93.1 199.5 185.0 Un Un W 12/5 Golden State Houston 104.2 94.5 195.5 198.6 Ov Ov W 12/5 Charlotte Milwaukee 89.2 93.5 188 182.7 Ov Un L 12/5 Toronto Utah 96.8 99.3 199 196.0 Ov Un L 12/6 Cleveland Charlotte 104.0 89.5 184 193.5 Un Ov L 12/6 New Jersey Philadelphia 101.1 94.2 196 195.3 Un Un W 12/6 Oklahoma City Miami 91.6 98.0 201.5 189.6 Ov Un L 12/6 LA Clippers Minnesota 91.4 94.6 193.5 185.9 Un Un W 12/6 Memphis New Orleans 93.1 96.7 192.5 189.7 Ov Un L 12/6 Golden State San Antonio 104.6 92.2 213 196.8 Un Un W 12/6 Atlanta Dallas 98.7 99.5 199.5 198.2 Un Un W 12/6 Washington Chicago 97.1 97.3 200.5 194.4 Ov Un L 12/6 Utah Phoenix 100.0 99.4 206.5 199.3 Ov Un L 12/6 Denver Sacramento 100.7 96.8 212 197.5 Un Un W 12/7 Detroit New York 95.9 103.9 205.5 199.8 Un Un W 12/7 Portland Toronto 97.1 96.2 192 193.4 Ov Ov W 12/7 Boston Indiana 98.7 98.3 201.5 197.0 Ov Un L 12/7 Milwaukee LA Lakers 93.9 108.6 209.5 202.4 Un Un W 12/8 Charlotte Miami 88.8 98.4 186 187.1 Un Ov L 12/8 Golden State Oklahoma City 103.8 91.9 220 195.7 Un Un W 12/8 Houston Memphis 96.3 92.8 192 189.1 Un Un W 12/8 Orlando LA Clippers 99.2 92.2 193.5 191.4 Un Un W 12/9 Detroit Washington 95.7 97.8 194.5 193.6 Un Un W 12/9 Toronto Cleveland 96.3 103.5 193.5 199.8 Un Ov L 12/9 Utah Minnesota 100.1 94.0 197 194.1 Un Un W 12/9 Atlanta Houston 98.6 96.3 194 195.0 Un Ov L 12/9 New York Chicago 103.9 98.3 214.5 202.2 Un Un W 12/9 San Antonio Dallas 93.8 99.5 189.5 193.4 Ov Ov W 12/9 Milwaukee Phoenix 93.8 99.7 204.5 193.4 Un Un W 12/9 Orlando Portland 99.0 97.2 187 196.2 Un Ov L 12/9 LA Lakers Sacramento 108.4 96.2 213 204.6 Un Un W
Chilid so a tweak to this system you think, your saying if you took the total points of the two teams like Atlanta being the Houstons at home they have 97.1 on offense and 90.2 on defense you add these 2 numbers and then Atlanta has 98.6 and on defense they have 99 so add all these together and divide by 2? 187.3+197.6 so its 384.9 divided by 2? is 192.4 so it would be under the totalof 193? Kenyone are you stating this won't work with this? or my simple test? Chilid where are you getting this information from ?
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Chilid so a tweak to this system you think, your saying if you took the total points of the two teams like Atlanta being the Houstons at home they have 97.1 on offense and 90.2 on defense you add these 2 numbers and then Atlanta has 98.6 and on defense they have 99 so add all these together and divide by 2? 187.3+197.6 so its 384.9 divided by 2? is 192.4 so it would be under the totalof 193? Kenyone are you stating this won't work with this? or my simple test? Chilid where are you getting this information from ?
I am glad Eli you found that yes they are not playing the CLIPPERS they are playing the KINGS. Yes a profitable night again, actually as soon as these numbers come out you should be playing them like the O/U on the Lakers I had 214 for O/U and it pushed, if you waited till game time it would of been like 111 so Tuesday we actually went 5 wins 3 losses Overall testing for NBA TOTALS 12-4 still not bad for 3 days testing
Sorry about the pessimistic mistake in my results post as I was convinced that the Lakers would put up more than 21 points in the 4th quarter when there was 6-7 minutes to go in the game. That's a nice void bet right there.
So, officially:
LA Lakers 108.4 play UNDER SACRAMENTO97.1 O/U 214
And, as for the new formula, notice how it won't make that much of a difference except for a couple of cases where the defensive and offensive numbers are incredibly different. Like, in your example, a total of 197 offensive points are to be expected which also means under is the play.
0
Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:
I am glad Eli you found that yes they are not playing the CLIPPERS they are playing the KINGS. Yes a profitable night again, actually as soon as these numbers come out you should be playing them like the O/U on the Lakers I had 214 for O/U and it pushed, if you waited till game time it would of been like 111 so Tuesday we actually went 5 wins 3 losses Overall testing for NBA TOTALS 12-4 still not bad for 3 days testing
Sorry about the pessimistic mistake in my results post as I was convinced that the Lakers would put up more than 21 points in the 4th quarter when there was 6-7 minutes to go in the game. That's a nice void bet right there.
So, officially:
LA Lakers 108.4 play UNDER SACRAMENTO97.1 O/U 214
And, as for the new formula, notice how it won't make that much of a difference except for a couple of cases where the defensive and offensive numbers are incredibly different. Like, in your example, a total of 197 offensive points are to be expected which also means under is the play.
The reason I seen the tweak is Chilid said he went 7-1-1 and I only manged 5-3 last night with 1 push.Kenyon's record is pretty good according to the thread.I don't know if he was ferrring to my analysis or Chilid's but guess we willfind out. When I do my postings I am going to include my way and Chilid's way.
Cheers!!!!!!!!!!!
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The reason I seen the tweak is Chilid said he went 7-1-1 and I only manged 5-3 last night with 1 push.Kenyon's record is pretty good according to the thread.I don't know if he was ferrring to my analysis or Chilid's but guess we willfind out. When I do my postings I am going to include my way and Chilid's way.
Chilid how did you get 7-1-1 please explain because I have the same over unders today as you? Would you fill me in on this or send me an email its in my profile thanks.Does anyone know whats going on here or would they explain it to me because it looks the same to me?
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Chilid how did you get 7-1-1 please explain because I have the same over unders today as you? Would you fill me in on this or send me an email its in my profile thanks.Does anyone know whats going on here or would they explain it to me because it looks the same to me?
Expert, I ran my numbers with the first method. I'm not saying it won't work, obviously it did good for a few days. I'm just posting the results if applied from 10/31/08 to 12/9/08. I don't see a need to test the second method, as I expect similiar results. GL with it tho.
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Expert, I ran my numbers with the first method. I'm not saying it won't work, obviously it did good for a few days. I'm just posting the results if applied from 10/31/08 to 12/9/08. I don't see a need to test the second method, as I expect similiar results. GL with it tho.
I'm still with you tracking this. Expert, Where do you guys find the team total history? Is there a site that already has the team's average score without having to do the math on every team?
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I'm still with you tracking this. Expert, Where do you guys find the team total history? Is there a site that already has the team's average score without having to do the math on every team?
Yes ESPN go to NBA---- team comparison stats---will show points scored and allowed and differential and ranks them all. Side by side so it is easier then covers for this.
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Yes ESPN go to NBA---- team comparison stats---will show points scored and allowed and differential and ranks them all. Side by side so it is easier then covers for this.
Anybody have any suggestions on how to improve this NBA O/U? All your suggestions are welcome, that is what this forum is for helping each other. I think a tweak to this will benefit all of us. Cheers!!!!
0
Anybody have any suggestions on how to improve this NBA O/U? All your suggestions are welcome, that is what this forum is for helping each other. I think a tweak to this will benefit all of us. Cheers!!!!
I have been following you guys on the hockey spoiler systems and love the work you put into this. You guys have great sense in realizing that this is a marathon and not a sprint.
If i can make a suggestion to this system(and by no means have i put any research into this) it would be to put a 4-5 point buffer in the system.
ex. of the 3 games tonight(Dec 11) only the Portland/Utah game has a cushion of more than 4 points between the added averages and the total. Im not sure what the record for the past season would be using this "buffer"(and i cant really look since im at work right now), but it might be worth looking at what the record would be with a certain point "buffer". Maybe it works, maybe it doesn't. Its just a suggestion. I'll keep following with you guys.
0
Expert and Eli,
I have been following you guys on the hockey spoiler systems and love the work you put into this. You guys have great sense in realizing that this is a marathon and not a sprint.
If i can make a suggestion to this system(and by no means have i put any research into this) it would be to put a 4-5 point buffer in the system.
ex. of the 3 games tonight(Dec 11) only the Portland/Utah game has a cushion of more than 4 points between the added averages and the total. Im not sure what the record for the past season would be using this "buffer"(and i cant really look since im at work right now), but it might be worth looking at what the record would be with a certain point "buffer". Maybe it works, maybe it doesn't. Its just a suggestion. I'll keep following with you guys.
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