Gas, If you look back I sorta answered your question about the 10-16 range by saying >10 record is 56-47 or 52.8%
Now to try and clear up this major confusion ... first of all my numbers are based on the assumption that ALL picks are reversed !!! That is the better overall record, but I latter showed that it has not been winning as much lately. The 2nd point is that I am saying the 7-10 range is what I would call "Top Plays" ... not that those are reversed. So based on these results yesterday was 0-2 with NY/Dal being a "Top Play" because it fell in the 7-10 range.
Also the data in the tables with the ranges is for ALL GAMES being reversed, it just shows the record for the differences in that range. So Capper may want to call anything above 16 a "top play" and rightfully so because it wins at 58.1% of the time. Or anything above 6 .. who knows, I just provided the data.
Now I recommend Capper continues his way and just makes picks because he has been doing so well. I only provided backtest data which by no means is an answer in itself.
Now I will just comment on his picks with what I have found ... I definately like LAC/NO and NJ/Mil as top play unders ... they are in the 7-10 sweet spot. Bos/Cle Under is good at a 19.7 diff ... backtesting indicates it wins 58.1%. Not sure why he plays Ind/LAL Under ... system indicates an Over ???, but as I started this post answering Gas ... it only wins about 52.8% of the time. So let Cap work his magic. (I just looked it up on the spreadsheet and 10-16 range is 42-39 or 51.9%)
The rest are up to you ... technically speaking I go the other way, because 53.1 % of the time reversing them all wins, but LATELY that has not been the case ... so again, I say let Cap work his magic.
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Gas, If you look back I sorta answered your question about the 10-16 range by saying >10 record is 56-47 or 52.8%
Now to try and clear up this major confusion ... first of all my numbers are based on the assumption that ALL picks are reversed !!! That is the better overall record, but I latter showed that it has not been winning as much lately. The 2nd point is that I am saying the 7-10 range is what I would call "Top Plays" ... not that those are reversed. So based on these results yesterday was 0-2 with NY/Dal being a "Top Play" because it fell in the 7-10 range.
Also the data in the tables with the ranges is for ALL GAMES being reversed, it just shows the record for the differences in that range. So Capper may want to call anything above 16 a "top play" and rightfully so because it wins at 58.1% of the time. Or anything above 6 .. who knows, I just provided the data.
Now I recommend Capper continues his way and just makes picks because he has been doing so well. I only provided backtest data which by no means is an answer in itself.
Now I will just comment on his picks with what I have found ... I definately like LAC/NO and NJ/Mil as top play unders ... they are in the 7-10 sweet spot. Bos/Cle Under is good at a 19.7 diff ... backtesting indicates it wins 58.1%. Not sure why he plays Ind/LAL Under ... system indicates an Over ???, but as I started this post answering Gas ... it only wins about 52.8% of the time. So let Cap work his magic. (I just looked it up on the spreadsheet and 10-16 range is 42-39 or 51.9%)
The rest are up to you ... technically speaking I go the other way, because 53.1 % of the time reversing them all wins, but LATELY that has not been the case ... so again, I say let Cap work his magic.
Not sure if this has been mentioned but you may be able to get an even more telling figure if you: A) throw away the five highest and five lowest to get a stronger mean score and B) only use home totals for home teams and road totals for road teams. There are a lot of teams that score a lot more or a lot less depending on where they are.
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Not sure if this has been mentioned but you may be able to get an even more telling figure if you: A) throw away the five highest and five lowest to get a stronger mean score and B) only use home totals for home teams and road totals for road teams. There are a lot of teams that score a lot more or a lot less depending on where they are.
ok I think this formula is cool but there can be some other parameters added. therefore i made a ranking list for defenses and offenses and created a comparison method.I got some pretty good hits in the past but never tracked.let's see if its work and can be used in this system. my example is
utah is a good defensive team at home. so is detroit on the road..so they will push eachother UNDER their averages..and the projected score is Detroit :84, Utah: 97(I will he explain the formula later) and with the same logic applied
Charlotte 78- Wasington 85 UNDER...
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ok I think this formula is cool but there can be some other parameters added. therefore i made a ranking list for defenses and offenses and created a comparison method.I got some pretty good hits in the past but never tracked.let's see if its work and can be used in this system. my example is
utah is a good defensive team at home. so is detroit on the road..so they will push eachother UNDER their averages..and the projected score is Detroit :84, Utah: 97(I will he explain the formula later) and with the same logic applied
ok I think this formula is cool but there can be some other parameters added. therefore i made a ranking list for defenses and offenses and created a comparison method.I got some pretty good hits in the past but never tracked.let's see if its work and can be used in this system. my example is
utah is a good defensive team at home. so is detroit on the road..so they will push eachother UNDER their averages..and the projected score is Detroit :84, Utah: 97(I will he explain the formula later) and with the same logic applied
Charlotte 78- Wasington 85 UNDER...
0
ok I think this formula is cool but there can be some other parameters added. therefore i made a ranking list for defenses and offenses and created a comparison method.I got some pretty good hits in the past but never tracked.let's see if its work and can be used in this system. my example is
utah is a good defensive team at home. so is detroit on the road..so they will push eachother UNDER their averages..and the projected score is Detroit :84, Utah: 97(I will he explain the formula later) and with the same logic applied
Not sure if this has been mentioned but you may be able to get an even more telling figure if you: A) throw away the five highest and five lowest to get a stronger mean score and B) only use home totals for home teams and road totals for road teams. There are a lot of teams that score a lot more or a lot less depending on where they are.
Yellow ... You musta skipped part of this loooong thread, because on 1-6 Capper explained that he does indeed use home and road totals. That is also what I backtested. As far as part A) I just don't think it will matter ... I did a quick check too. It would take me about an hour to find out for sure, but the averages don't change much. You do bring up an issue I am trying to figure out tho ... that is how teams like GS and NY throw a monkey wrench into averages and systems.
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Quote Originally Posted by yellowsnow51:
Not sure if this has been mentioned but you may be able to get an even more telling figure if you: A) throw away the five highest and five lowest to get a stronger mean score and B) only use home totals for home teams and road totals for road teams. There are a lot of teams that score a lot more or a lot less depending on where they are.
Yellow ... You musta skipped part of this loooong thread, because on 1-6 Capper explained that he does indeed use home and road totals. That is also what I backtested. As far as part A) I just don't think it will matter ... I did a quick check too. It would take me about an hour to find out for sure, but the averages don't change much. You do bring up an issue I am trying to figure out tho ... that is how teams like GS and NY throw a monkey wrench into averages and systems.
Two many comments here for me to quickly see the desired parameters for the system. If someone wants to paraphrase the system I will run it back to 2004.
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Two many comments here for me to quickly see the desired parameters for the system. If someone wants to paraphrase the system I will run it back to 2004.
Yellow ... You musta skipped part of this loooong thread, because on 1-6 Capper explained that he does indeed use home and road totals. That is also what I backtested. As far as part A) I just don't think it will matter ... I did a quick check too. It would take me about an hour to find out for sure, but the averages don't change much. You do bring up an issue I am trying to figure out tho ... that is how teams like GS and NY throw a monkey wrench into averages and systems.
I figured I missed it somewhere.
As far as teams like GS, NY, IND messing up the numbers, that is 100% correct. I've been doing very well recently on totals lately and part of it is that I will throw any past performance out against teams like those when considering where the line should be. I will also throw out games against teams like Detroit, Charlotte (and recently Washington), due to them bringing averages down. A question you need to ask yourself first is, "Which of the two teams playing will manipulate the tempo of the game?" Then, I go from there. If I don't like the answer, I'll fade the game. There is a ton more, but that's start.
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Quote Originally Posted by kenyonlv:
Yellow ... You musta skipped part of this loooong thread, because on 1-6 Capper explained that he does indeed use home and road totals. That is also what I backtested. As far as part A) I just don't think it will matter ... I did a quick check too. It would take me about an hour to find out for sure, but the averages don't change much. You do bring up an issue I am trying to figure out tho ... that is how teams like GS and NY throw a monkey wrench into averages and systems.
I figured I missed it somewhere.
As far as teams like GS, NY, IND messing up the numbers, that is 100% correct. I've been doing very well recently on totals lately and part of it is that I will throw any past performance out against teams like those when considering where the line should be. I will also throw out games against teams like Detroit, Charlotte (and recently Washington), due to them bringing averages down. A question you need to ask yourself first is, "Which of the two teams playing will manipulate the tempo of the game?" Then, I go from there. If I don't like the answer, I'll fade the game. There is a ton more, but that's start.
Dodgethis, after your results on the numerology thread I assume you have one heck of a database setup, but I think this system is a real challenge for it. What you do is take the home team scoring average (home games only) and add it to the road team scoring average (road games only) and subtract from the Vegas line. Then you have the variations ... my backtest indicates so far this year it is best if the averages are above the line to play the under , if under play the over ie play the opposite. Capper generally plays them straight, but reverses if above 8 or 9.
You need the daily averages of all the teams to backtest, which I have this year, but back to 2004 ... I guess if you have the scores and lines and are good with databases it's a cinch.
Thanks Snow ... those are very useful suggestions. I've certainly been considering something along those lines, would just have to have a separate dataset ignoring those teams. Trying to predict the tempo of the game is a little more difficult proposition tho. Thanks for the input.
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Dodgethis, after your results on the numerology thread I assume you have one heck of a database setup, but I think this system is a real challenge for it. What you do is take the home team scoring average (home games only) and add it to the road team scoring average (road games only) and subtract from the Vegas line. Then you have the variations ... my backtest indicates so far this year it is best if the averages are above the line to play the under , if under play the over ie play the opposite. Capper generally plays them straight, but reverses if above 8 or 9.
You need the daily averages of all the teams to backtest, which I have this year, but back to 2004 ... I guess if you have the scores and lines and are good with databases it's a cinch.
Thanks Snow ... those are very useful suggestions. I've certainly been considering something along those lines, would just have to have a separate dataset ignoring those teams. Trying to predict the tempo of the game is a little more difficult proposition tho. Thanks for the input.
For the month of January 2008, Eastern home teams only: Total - (Average of all home points scored by team in question for season + Average of all road points scored by team in question for season)
Take a couple of them and see whether my numbers are close to your answers. I will just use this subset to see if I am following your instructions.
Next you can give me a few pointers on how to evaluate this. If you just use +ve value play over and -ve play under then you are plus 5 - right?
Date Team Variance O/U/P
Jan 2…Pacers…[14.3]…0-1-0 Jan 2…Knicks…[12.6]…0-1-0 Jan 2…Seventysixers…[2.8]…0-1-0 Jan 2…Nets…[2.6]…0-1-0 Jan 2…Bobcats…[2]…0-1-0 Jan 2…Hawks…[-2.8]…0-1-0 Jan 2…Pistons…[-4.9]…1-0-0 Jan 2…Heat…[-4.9]…0-1-0 Jan 2…Wizards…[-5]…1-0-0 Jan 2…Raptors…[-9]…0-1-0 Jan 2…Bulls…[-11.5]…1-0-0 Jan 2…Cavaliers…[-12.1]…1-0-0 Jan 2…Bucks…[-13]…0-1-0 Jan 2…Magic…[-14]…0-1-0 Jan 2…Celtics…[-17.3]…1-0-0 Jan 3…Pacers…[2.3]…1-0-0 Jan 3…Bobcats…[0.5]…1-0-0 Jan 3…Bulls…[-2]…0-1-0 Jan 3…Heat…[-3.9]…1-0-0 Jan 3…Nets…[-4.9]…1-0-0 Jan 3…Seventysixers…[-5.7]…1-0-0 Jan 3…Bucks…[-15.3]…1-0-0 Jan 3…Hawks…[-15.8]…1-0-0 Jan 4…Celtics…[0.2]…0-1-0 Jan 4…Wizards…[-5.5]…0-1-0 Jan 4…Knicks…[-6.3]…0-1-0 Jan 4…Raptors…[-10.8]…1-0-0 Jan 4…Magic…[-12.7]…1-0-0 Jan 4…Pistons…[-18.1]…0-0-1 Jan 4…Cavaliers…[-20.6]…0-1-0 Jan 5…Pacers…[6.9]…1-0-0 Jan 5…Nets…[6.1]…0-1-0 Jan 5…Bucks…[-5.3]…1-0-0 Jan 5…Raptors…[-8.4]…1-0-0 Jan 5…Heat…[-12.4]…0-1-0 Jan 6…Knicks…[3.6]…0-1-0 Jan 6…Bulls…[3.1]…0-1-0 Jan 6…Wizards…[-2.9]…0-1-0 Jan 6…Bobcats…[-3.6]…1-0-0 Jan 6…Seventysixers…[-4.2]…1-0-0 Jan 6…Magic…[-10.2]…0-1-0 Jan 6…Celtics…[-29.8]…1-0-0 Jan 7…Pacers…[8.9]…0-1-0 Jan 7…Heat…[7]…1-0-0 Jan 7…Seventysixers…[1.9]…1-0-0 Jan 7…Bobcats…[-1.2]…1-0-0 Jan 7…Wizards…[-1.4]…1-0-0 Jan 7…Bucks…[-1.5]…1-0-0 Jan 7…Nets…[-7]…1-0-0 Jan 7…Magic…[-7]…1-0-0 Jan 7…Raptors…[-7.9]…1-0-0 Jan 7…Hawks…[-8.1]…1-0-0 Jan 7…Pistons…[-16.1]…0-1-0 Jan 7…Celtics…[-23.3]…0-1-0 Jan 7…Cavaliers…[-27.6]…1-0-0 Jan 8…Knicks…[-2.9]…0-1-0 Jan 9…Pacers…[11.9]…1-0-0 Jan 9…Bobcats…[7.3]…0-1-0 Jan 9…Wizards…[3.9]…0-1-0 Jan 9…Pistons…[1.9]…0-1-0 Jan 9…Heat…[1.5]…1-0-0 Jan 9…Nets…[-0.8]…1-0-0 Jan 9…Seventysixers…[-3.1]…0-1-0 Jan 9…Bucks…[-4.8]…1-0-0 Jan 9…Magic…[-7]…1-0-0 Jan 9…Hawks…[-8.3]…1-0-0 Jan 9…Raptors…[-9.4]…0-1-0 Jan 9…Bulls…[-9.4]…0-1-0 Jan 9…Celtics…[-22.9]…0-1-0 Jan 9…Cavaliers…[-27.8]…0-1-0 Jan 10…Bucks…[0.7]…1-0-0 Jan 10…Bulls…[0.2]…1-0-0 Jan 10…Bobcats…[-1.7]…0-1-0 Jan 10…Pistons…[-6.1]…0-1-0 Jan 10…Knicks…[-8.9]…0-1-0 Jan 10…Wizards…[-10.6]…0-1-0 Jan 11…Pacers…[18.9]…1-0-0 Jan 11…Heat…[12]…1-0-0 Jan 11…Seventysixers…[4.9]…1-0-0 Jan 11…Hawks…[-1.8]…1-0-0 Jan 11…Raptors…[-11.3]…0-1-0 Jan 11…Magic…[-13.8]…1-0-0 Jan 11…Celtics…[-17.4]…0-1-0
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Well here is what I have done.
For the month of January 2008, Eastern home teams only: Total - (Average of all home points scored by team in question for season + Average of all road points scored by team in question for season)
Take a couple of them and see whether my numbers are close to your answers. I will just use this subset to see if I am following your instructions.
Next you can give me a few pointers on how to evaluate this. If you just use +ve value play over and -ve play under then you are plus 5 - right?
Date Team Variance O/U/P
Jan 2…Pacers…[14.3]…0-1-0 Jan 2…Knicks…[12.6]…0-1-0 Jan 2…Seventysixers…[2.8]…0-1-0 Jan 2…Nets…[2.6]…0-1-0 Jan 2…Bobcats…[2]…0-1-0 Jan 2…Hawks…[-2.8]…0-1-0 Jan 2…Pistons…[-4.9]…1-0-0 Jan 2…Heat…[-4.9]…0-1-0 Jan 2…Wizards…[-5]…1-0-0 Jan 2…Raptors…[-9]…0-1-0 Jan 2…Bulls…[-11.5]…1-0-0 Jan 2…Cavaliers…[-12.1]…1-0-0 Jan 2…Bucks…[-13]…0-1-0 Jan 2…Magic…[-14]…0-1-0 Jan 2…Celtics…[-17.3]…1-0-0 Jan 3…Pacers…[2.3]…1-0-0 Jan 3…Bobcats…[0.5]…1-0-0 Jan 3…Bulls…[-2]…0-1-0 Jan 3…Heat…[-3.9]…1-0-0 Jan 3…Nets…[-4.9]…1-0-0 Jan 3…Seventysixers…[-5.7]…1-0-0 Jan 3…Bucks…[-15.3]…1-0-0 Jan 3…Hawks…[-15.8]…1-0-0 Jan 4…Celtics…[0.2]…0-1-0 Jan 4…Wizards…[-5.5]…0-1-0 Jan 4…Knicks…[-6.3]…0-1-0 Jan 4…Raptors…[-10.8]…1-0-0 Jan 4…Magic…[-12.7]…1-0-0 Jan 4…Pistons…[-18.1]…0-0-1 Jan 4…Cavaliers…[-20.6]…0-1-0 Jan 5…Pacers…[6.9]…1-0-0 Jan 5…Nets…[6.1]…0-1-0 Jan 5…Bucks…[-5.3]…1-0-0 Jan 5…Raptors…[-8.4]…1-0-0 Jan 5…Heat…[-12.4]…0-1-0 Jan 6…Knicks…[3.6]…0-1-0 Jan 6…Bulls…[3.1]…0-1-0 Jan 6…Wizards…[-2.9]…0-1-0 Jan 6…Bobcats…[-3.6]…1-0-0 Jan 6…Seventysixers…[-4.2]…1-0-0 Jan 6…Magic…[-10.2]…0-1-0 Jan 6…Celtics…[-29.8]…1-0-0 Jan 7…Pacers…[8.9]…0-1-0 Jan 7…Heat…[7]…1-0-0 Jan 7…Seventysixers…[1.9]…1-0-0 Jan 7…Bobcats…[-1.2]…1-0-0 Jan 7…Wizards…[-1.4]…1-0-0 Jan 7…Bucks…[-1.5]…1-0-0 Jan 7…Nets…[-7]…1-0-0 Jan 7…Magic…[-7]…1-0-0 Jan 7…Raptors…[-7.9]…1-0-0 Jan 7…Hawks…[-8.1]…1-0-0 Jan 7…Pistons…[-16.1]…0-1-0 Jan 7…Celtics…[-23.3]…0-1-0 Jan 7…Cavaliers…[-27.6]…1-0-0 Jan 8…Knicks…[-2.9]…0-1-0 Jan 9…Pacers…[11.9]…1-0-0 Jan 9…Bobcats…[7.3]…0-1-0 Jan 9…Wizards…[3.9]…0-1-0 Jan 9…Pistons…[1.9]…0-1-0 Jan 9…Heat…[1.5]…1-0-0 Jan 9…Nets…[-0.8]…1-0-0 Jan 9…Seventysixers…[-3.1]…0-1-0 Jan 9…Bucks…[-4.8]…1-0-0 Jan 9…Magic…[-7]…1-0-0 Jan 9…Hawks…[-8.3]…1-0-0 Jan 9…Raptors…[-9.4]…0-1-0 Jan 9…Bulls…[-9.4]…0-1-0 Jan 9…Celtics…[-22.9]…0-1-0 Jan 9…Cavaliers…[-27.8]…0-1-0 Jan 10…Bucks…[0.7]…1-0-0 Jan 10…Bulls…[0.2]…1-0-0 Jan 10…Bobcats…[-1.7]…0-1-0 Jan 10…Pistons…[-6.1]…0-1-0 Jan 10…Knicks…[-8.9]…0-1-0 Jan 10…Wizards…[-10.6]…0-1-0 Jan 11…Pacers…[18.9]…1-0-0 Jan 11…Heat…[12]…1-0-0 Jan 11…Seventysixers…[4.9]…1-0-0 Jan 11…Hawks…[-1.8]…1-0-0 Jan 11…Raptors…[-11.3]…0-1-0 Jan 11…Magic…[-13.8]…1-0-0 Jan 11…Celtics…[-17.4]…0-1-0
I got 3-3 i think i posted my lines before they changed thats why the 3 winners were OKC/NJ thats why ,it ended up at 202 and the line changed after i posted 201 1/2 top play to 202 1/2.This is where the confusion started . Sorry about that
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I got 3-3 i think i posted my lines before they changed thats why the 3 winners were OKC/NJ thats why ,it ended up at 202 and the line changed after i posted 201 1/2 top play to 202 1/2.This is where the confusion started . Sorry about that
I got 3-3 i think i posted my lines before they changed thats why the 3 winners were OKC/NJ thats why ,it ended up at 202 and the line changed after i posted 201 1/2 top play to 202 1/2.This is where the confusion started . Sorry about that
You're right Capper ... I had it in the sreadsheet as Under 202.5 as being a winner, which is true, but you posted Over 201.5, which is a winner also. My bust, Just trying to keep you on your toes ...
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Quote Originally Posted by expertcapper:
I got 3-3 i think i posted my lines before they changed thats why the 3 winners were OKC/NJ thats why ,it ended up at 202 and the line changed after i posted 201 1/2 top play to 202 1/2.This is where the confusion started . Sorry about that
You're right Capper ... I had it in the sreadsheet as Under 202.5 as being a winner, which is true, but you posted Over 201.5, which is a winner also. My bust, Just trying to keep you on your toes ...
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